UK Jobs Number, German Eco Sentiment in Focus today
FX Update
Dollar Index
The dollar nursed broad losses on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump stopped short of imposing new tariffs and reports suggested any new taxes would be imposed in a “measured” way, a major relief for trade-exposed currencies.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell 6 basis points to 4.56% as investors had been worried a rapid imposition of tariffs would risk rekindling inflation.
Trump used his inauguration speech to announce emergencies on immigration and energy and a more expansionist foreign policy, including a pledge to take back the Panama Canal.
Yet there was only a brief mention of tariffs in Trump’s inauguration speech and a following memo merely directed agencies to investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits.
The euro traded more than 1% higher on Monday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump will stop short of hiking tariffs on U.S. trading partners immediately after he is sworn in as president later in the day.
The WSJ reported that the president-elect would issue a memo on Monday directing agencies to investigate trade deficits and unfair trade practices, but said he would not impose tariffs on his first day in office.
Crude Oil:
Oil prices settled lower after U.S. President Donald Trump was sworn in for a second time, and said he would immediately declare a national energy emergency, promising to fill up strategic reserves and export American energy all over the world.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down by $1.30, or 1.7%, at $76.58. The more active WTI crude March contract CLc2 was down 91 cents, or 1.2%, at $76.48. There will be no settlement for WTI contracts due to the U.S. holiday.
Gold:
Gold firmed on Monday on a softer dollar as investors awaited Donald Trump’s inauguration speech later in the day for insights into his policies that are expected to provide clarity on the inflation outlook and Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions.
Copper
Most base metals, including copper, which touched a one-month high last week, declined on Monday due to a strong dollar and uncertainty over potential tariffs under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.
MCX Closing Update
Gold 78,544 (-0.61%), Silver 91,442 (-0.17%), Crude oil 6,613 (-2.38%), Copper 831.85(-0.11%), Natural Gas 332 (-3.68%).
Economic Data and Event Releases yesterday (UK Jobs Number, German Eco Sentiment)
China
China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for a third consecutive month, as expected, as a weakening yuan has limited Beijing’s monetary policy easing efforts. At the monthly fixing on Monday, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.6%.
Eurozone
German producer prices rose less than expected in December to -0.1% from previous 0.5%.
Economic Data and Event scheduled today (UK Jobs Number, German Eco Sentiment)
UK
At 12.3pm-
Claimant Count Change. Data is foreseen at 10.3K from previous 0.3K.
Average Earnings Index 3m/y. Data is foreseen at 5.6% from previous 5.2%.
Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.3% from previous 4.3%.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound.
Eurozone
At 3.30pm-
German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 15.2 from previous 15.7.
ZEW Economic Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 16.9 from previous 17.
All day – ECOFIN Meetings
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.
Canada
At 7.00pm-
CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.7% from previous 0.0%.
Median CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.5% from previous 2.6%.
Trimmed CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.5% from previous 2.7%
Common CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 1.9% from previous 2%.
Core CPI m/m. Previous was at -1.4%.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets
Also Read: Crude Oil Price Steady: What Will Trump’s Policy Bring? , Will Gold Price Surge Before Trump’s Inauguration?
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