Economic News Focus: BoJ Policy & UK Retail Sales Volatility

September 20, 2024

Today’s economic news offers some compelling insights.

Market Update

Dollar Index:

The dollar index rose slightly by +0.04% on Thursday. It found support after US weekly jobless claims dropped more than expected to a 4-month low, a sign that could encourage further hawkish moves from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, higher T-note yields bolstered the dollar through increased interest rate differentials. However, the dollar pulled back from its highs as the British pound surged to a 2.5-year high following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Lingering negative sentiment from Wednesday also weighed on the dollar after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points and signaled another 50-basis point cut by year-end.

Crude Oil:

Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday after a positive US jobless claims report combined with a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, easing concerns about a slowing US economy. Additionally, a larger-than-expected 1.63-million-barrel draw in crude inventories reported on Wednesday contributed to the bullish sentiment, though increases in distillate and gasoline inventories raised concerns about cooling US fuel demand as the peak summer travel season winds down.

Gold:

Gold prices inched higher on Thursday, one day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years. A stronger US dollar following a lower-than-expected jobless claims report slightly capped gains for gold, but the overall impact of rate cuts supported higher prices.

Copper:

Copper futures rose to a two-month high, benefitting from the weaker US dollar and optimism for stronger demand. Concerns over tight supply and expectations for economic stimulus in China, the world’s top copper consumer, added further support. Weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investments in China raised hopes for additional government stimulus to boost manufacturing.

Thursday Prices action (MCX)

Gold 73438 (+0.52%), Silver 89968 (+1.89%), Copper 814.40 (+0.67%) Crude 6026 (+1.91%) Natural gas 195.90(+1.35%)

Yesterday Data and Event Update –

The Bank of England held interest rates at 5.0% on Thursday and voted to run down its stock of British government bonds by another 100 billion pounds over the coming 12 months, weighing on the government’s finances.

US current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, increased $25.8 billion, or 10.7%, to $266.8 billion last quarter.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended Sept. 14, the lowest level since the middle of May, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

Japan

At 5.20am- National Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.8% from previous 2.7%.

Tentative – BOJ Policy Rate. Forecast 0.25%, previous was at 0.25%.

Tentative – Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Yen.

China

At 6.30am-

1-y Loan Prime Rate. Data is foreseen at 3.35% from previous3.35%

5-y Loan Prime Rate. Data is foreseen at 3.85% from previous 3.85%.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Dollar.

Eurozone

At 11.30am—German PPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.0% from previous 0.2%.

At 7.30pm – Consumer Confidence. Data is foreseen at -13 from previous -13.

At 8.30pm- ECB President Lagarde Speaks.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.

At 11.30am-

Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.5%.

Public Sector Net Borrowing. Data is foreseen at 12.1B from previous 2.2B

At 2.30pm- MPC Member Mann Speaks.

Above data could have a positive impact on the Pound.

CANADA

At 5.45pm-BOC Gov Macklem Speaks.

At 6.00pm-

Core Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.3%.

Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous -0.3%.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the Canadian dollar.

At 11.30pm- FOMC Member Harker Speaks.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a neutral impact on the dollar.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Investor Confidence Soars: Nifty Reaches New Peak

Want Help On Your Trades ?

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Investor Confidence Soars: Nifty Reaches New Peak

September 20, 2024

Yesterday’s Pick

NIFTY 19 SEP 25400CE 80 POINTS🚀 Profit : 20000+ PER 10 LOTS
BANKNIFTY SEP 53500CE 50 POINTS🚀 Profit : 7500+ PER 10 LOTS
BANKNIFTY SEP 53000PE 70 POINTS🚀 Profit : 10500+ Per 10 Lot
NIFTY 19 SEP 25500PE 35 POINTS🚀 Profit : 8750+ Per 10 Lot

Nifty Technical View

The benchmark indices responded favorably to the 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, with the Nifty 50 climbing 235 points to surpass 25,600 during intraday trading. However, profit-taking led to a retreat, and it finished the day with a modest gain of 38 points at 25,416 on September 19. The index struggled to hold above the important upward-sloping resistance trendline, which is essential for continuing its upward trajectory toward 25,600. In the meantime, it may experience consolidation, finding support at 25,300.

India Vix

Volatility significantly decreased following the resolution of uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve event, offering greater reassurance to bullish investors. The India VIX, which measures market fear, dropped by 6.75% to 12.47, down from the previous level of 13.37.

FII And DII Data

On September 19th, foreign institutional investors sold Indian stocks valued at ₹2,547.53 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought stocks worth ₹2,012.86 crore.

Nifty PCR

On September 19, the Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) rose to 1.26 from 1.13, signaling a bullish market sentiment as traders sold more Put options than Call options. A PCR above 0.7 indicates optimism, while a drop below 0.7 suggests a bearish outlook, with more Call options being sold than Puts.

Stocks To Watch

HDFC Bank: The bank plans to sell loans worth over Rs 90 billion in its largest transaction to date by the end of September. The sale involves pass-through certificates backed by car loans.

IIFL Finance: The company announced that the RBI has lifted restrictions on its gold loan operations. The company can now resume its lending activities after addressing previous regulatory concerns regarding loan processes.

Nykaa: The company has increased its same and next-day delivery capabilities to 110 cities, with 60 per cent of the orders fulfilled within one day. The company has significantly expanded its warehouse network, enhancing efficiency and reducing delivery times.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Support and Resistance level

NIFTY :-
Resistance 25,500, 25,650 and 26,750
Support based 25,300, 25250 and 25,080

BankNifty :–
Resistance :53,180, 53,400 and 54,000
Support based 52,800, 52,600, and 52,250

Index Future levels

Nifty Futures Buy At 25,500 The suggested targets for this are 25,650 and 25,750 with the stop loss set at 25,250

Bank Nifty Buy Above 53,250 index is expected to upside levels of 53,400 and 53,600 and level 52,950 will act as a stop loss.

Momentum Pick: ENDURANCE TECHNO. LTD

Buy above ₹ 2553 | Target price: ₹ 2800/2900 |Stop Loss:₹ 2450

Endurance Technologies is engaged in the business of manufacturing and selling of aluminium die casting (including alloy wheel), suspension, transmission and braking products with operations spread across India. The company was started by Anurag Jain with the help of his uncle Rahul Bajaj (The chairman of Bajaj group of companies) in 1985. Initially the company did only Aluminum die casting work for Bajaj Auto and Bajaj auto was their sole client till 2004 and the company ventured into various segments only after 2004.

In FY 24-25, Endurance Technologies declared their Q1 results on 13 Aug, 2024. The topline increased by 15.33% & the profit increased by 24.68% YoY. As compared to the previous quarter the revenue grew by 5.24% and the profit decreased by 3%. The Selling, general & administrative expenses rose by 10.28% q-o-q & increased by 14.37% Y-o-Y. Despite these rising expenses, the company managed to record a significant year-over-year profit growth.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Economic News: Bank of England policy decision in Focus now

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BOE Critical Focus: Hold Rates or Surprise Cut?

September 19, 2024

The British pound rose against the dollar on Wednesday after UK inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England BOE will keep interest rates steady on Thursday, in contrast to the anticipated start of the U.S. policy easing cycle later in the day. Sterling gained 0.49%, reaching a session high of $1.3227, recovering from Tuesday’s losses.

The currency also hit a fresh 30-month high on Wednesday, nearing the 1.3300 level after the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by a substantial 50 basis points, marking the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years.

The Bank of England is set to announce its own September rate decision on Thursday. However, no rate moves are expected from the BoE, as it already lowered its benchmark rate earlier this summer.

Later today, The Bank of England is widely anticipated to keep interest rates at 5% in a seven-to-two vote. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) previously voted five-to-four to reduce interest rates by 25 bps from 5.25%, and markets are expecting the BoE to hold steady for this meeting.

Meanwhile, industry data showed British supermarket sales growth slowed over the last month as consumers trimmed spending after their summer holidays.

Looking through the Bank of England’s range of underlying services measures, we still see some marginal improvement in the data despite the uptick in the headline services measure, with underlying inflation continuing to ease

Looking past the MPC decision on Thursday, markets are wagering on 50 basis points of cuts in total from now until the end of the year. The BoE cut rates by a quarter of a point last month.

Now, today move will be depend on the BOE decision a rate cut is expect to put pressure or a vice versa.

Technical Outlook – BOE Critical Focus

The GBP/INR pair retreated from the high of 110.64 and settled at 110.20 yesterday, compared to the previous day’s close of 110.29.

For the past four days, the pair has been consolidating above 110.10 and trading above the short-term moving averages. This indicates that the pair is struggling to maintain support at 110.00 but is trying to sustain above it.

The momentum is expected to remain positive unless it closes below this level, and the pair is likely to test the immediate resistance at 110.45-110.62 in the coming days.

On the downside, a break below 109.85 could open the door for a move towards 109.62-109.55.

Overall, momentum will depend on the Bank of England’s policy decision. An unchanged decision is expected to support gains, while a rate cut could add pressure.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Economic News: Bank of England policy decision in Focus now “Fed Cuts Rates: Nifty Set to Soar to New Heights!”

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Economic News: Bank of England policy decision in Focus now

September 19, 2024

Today’s economic news offers some compelling insights.

Dollar Index:

The U.S. dollar rose broadly on Thursday, recovering from an earlier drop following the Federal Reserve’s outsized interest rate cut, which had been largely priced in by markets. On Wednesday, the Fed kicked off its monetary easing cycle with a larger-than-expected half-percentage-point reduction, signaling policymakers’ commitment to maintaining low unemployment now that inflation has eased.

Crude Oil:

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday after the Fed’s larger-than-expected rate cut sparked concerns about the U.S. economy. Brent crude futures for November dropped 34 cents, or 0.46%, to $73.31 per barrel by 0015 GMT, while WTI crude futures for October declined 42 cents, or 0.59%, to $70.49 per barrel. The Fed’s rate cut, while typically supportive of economic activity, suggested concerns about a slowing U.S. job market.

Gold:

Gold prices retreated from all-time highs as the dollar and Treasury yields rose, following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank’s 50-basis-point rate cut.

Copper:

Copper prices ticked higher on Wednesday, ahead of the widely anticipated Fed rate cut, which investors expect will support demand for metals.

Monday’s Prices action (MCX)

Gold 73055 (-0.05%), Silver 88299 (-0.94%), Copper 808.90(+0.12%) Crude 5913 (-1.27%) Natural gas 193.30(-1.63%)

Yesterday Data and Event Update –

Federal Reserve voted to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage point, opting for a more aggressive reduction than investors had been expecting just a week ago.

The Fed’s dot plot of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections was also revised downward from the central bank’s previous rate outlook. The median policy expectations from the Fed now see the Fed Funds rate at 4.4% by year-end 2024 and 3.4% by year-end 2025, down from 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively.

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

Australia

At 7.00am-

Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 26.4k from previous 58.2K

Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.2% from previous 4.2%.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Dollar.

Eurozone

At 1.30pm—

Current Account. Data is foreseen at 40.3B from previous 50.5B.

At 3.30pm – German Buba Monthly Report.

At 5.00PM – German Buba Monthly Report.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.

At 4.30pm-

Monetary Policy Summary.

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Forecast 0-2-7, previous 0-5-4.

Official Bank Rate. Data is foreseen at 5.00% from previous 5.00%.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a positive impact on the Pound.

At 6.00pm

Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 230k from previous 230k.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at -0.8 from the previous-7.0.

Current Account. Data is foreseen at -259B from previous -238B.

At 7.30pm-

Existing Home Sales. Data is foreseen at 3.90M from previous 3.95M.

CB Leading Index m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.3% from previous -0.6%.

At 8.00pm- Natural Gas Storage.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Fed Cuts Rates: Nifty Set to Soar to New Heights!

Want Help On Your Trades ?

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“Fed Cuts Rates: Nifty Set to Soar to New Heights!”

September 19, 2024

Yesterday’s Pick

BANKNIFTY 18 SEP 52000CE 140 POINTS🚀 Profit : 14000+ PER 10 LOTS
BANKNIFTY 18 SEP 52500CE 220 POINTS🚀 Profit : 33000+ PER 10 LOTS
NIFTY 19 SEP 25400CE 60 POINTS🚀 Profit : 15000+ Per 10 Lot
HDFCBANK 1700 CE SEP 6 POINTS🚀 Profit : 3300+ Per 1 Lot
BANKNIFTY 18 SEP 53000CE 40 points 🚀 Profit : 6000+ PER 10 LOT
TORRENTPOWER SHORT TREM PICK 9% RETURN(50 QUANTITY)🚀 PROFIT: 7750+
HEG LTD SHORT TREM PICK 10% RETURN(50 QUANTITY)🚀 PROFIT: 12100+
GRAPHITE INDIA LTD SHORT TREM PICK 10% RETURN(200 QUANTITY)🚀PROFIT: 10800+
BANKNIFTY SEP FUTURE 350 POINT🚀 PROFIT: 5250+ PER 1 LOT
SBIN BANK SEP FUTURE 5 POINTS🚀PROFIT: 3750+ PER 1 LOT

Nifty’s Technical View

Market participants opted for minor profit-taking ahead of a significant event the results of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. The US central bank cut the benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. On September 18, the Nifty 50 declined by 41 points to settle at 25,378, experiencing some volatility. The 25,500 mark is anticipated to be a key resistance level, while a potential rise toward 25,800 is within reach. Immediate support is identified at 25,300, with the crucial level lying at 25,000.

India Vix

Volatility continued its upward trend for another session, increasing sharply but still staying at lower levels, which benefits bullish sentiments. The India VIX, a measure of market anxiety, rose by 6.22% to 13.37. As long as it remains below the 15 threshold, the trend is likely to support the bulls.

Nifty PCR

The PCR, a measure of market sentiment, decreased to 1.13 on September 18 from 1.3 the day before.
A PCR above 0.7 or 1 suggests that traders are buying more Call options than Put options, indicating a bullish market outlook. Conversely, a PCR below 0.7 or approaching 0.5 indicates that traders are buying more Put options than Call options, suggesting a bearish market outlook.

FII And DII Data

On September 18th, foreign institutional investors acquired Indian stocks worth ₹1,153.69 crore, while domestic institutional investors purchased stocks totaling ₹152.31 crore.

Stocks To Watch

SBI: State Bank of India (SBI) raised ₹7,500 crore by issuing Basel III-compliant Tier 2 bonds to qualified institutional bidders. The issue attracted an overwhelming response, with bids exceeding 3 times the base issue size of ₹4,000 crore. The wide range of investors included provident funds, pension funds, mutual funds, and banks. SBI Chairman C S Setty noted that the strong participation reflected the trust investors have in India’s largest bank.

NTPC: NTPC will be a key stock to watch as it prepares to list its renewable energy subsidiary. The company aims to raise approximately ₹10,000 crore through the green energy IPO, and the draft papers for the listing have already been submitted.

BHEL, PFC: BHEL has paid a final dividend of ₹55 crore to the government, while Power Finance Corporation (PFC) reported a record dividend payout of ₹4,455 crore for 2023-24, with ₹462 crore going to the government.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Support and Resistance level

NIFTY :-
Resistance 25,480, 25,700 and 26,180
Support based 25,300, 25200 and 24,800

BankNifty :–
Resistance :53,100, 53,250 and 54,000
Support based 52,300, 51,750, and 51,500

Index Future levels

Nifty Futures Buy At 25,500 The suggested targets for this are 25,650 and 25,750 with the stop loss set at 25,300

Bank Nifty Buy Above 52,800 index is expected to upside levels of 53,150 and 53,350 and level 52,350 will act as a stop loss.

Momentum Pick: SYMPHONY LTD

Buy above ₹ 1490 | Target price: ₹ 1560/1600 |Stop Loss:₹ 1435

Symphony was established in 1988, in Ahmedabad, India. The company is engaged in the manufacturing and trading of residential, commercial, and industrial air coolers in the domestic and international markets. It is the largest air cooler manufacturer in the world, 97% of the revenue comes from the sale of Air coolers.

In FY24-25, Symphony Ltd’s revenue jumped 69.81% since last year same period to ₹540Cr in the Q1 2024-2025. On a quarterly growth basis, Symphony Ltd has generated 58.36% jump in its revenue since last 3-months. Symphony Ltd’s net profit jumped 266.67% since last year same period to ₹88Cr in the Q1 2024-2025. On a quarterly growth basis, Symphony Ltd has generated 83.33% jump in its net profits since last 3-months. Symphony Ltd’s net profit margin jumped 115.93% since last year same period to 16.30% in the Q1 2024-2025. On a quarterly growth basis, Symphony Ltd has generated 15.77% jump in its net profit margins since last 3-months.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read:Economic News: US Federal Reserve Decision in Focus Today

Economic News: US Federal Reserve Decision in Focus Today

September 18, 2024

Today’s economic news offers some compelling insights.

US Fed Decision and Projections in Economic News Today (54 characters)

Dollar Index:

The Dollar Index has eased to around 100.8 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy decision today. Markets are expecting a rate cut, which would be the first in four years, as the Fed navigates through mixed economic signals.

Crude Oil:

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading near $70.85, gaining support from ongoing supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, there is optimism that a Fed rate cut could boost economic activity, lending further support to oil prices.

Gold:

Gold prices remain steady as investors await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. A stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales report for August lifted the US dollar and Treasury yields, capping gold’s potential upside. Traders are watching closely for any policy shifts that could impact the precious metal’s trajectory.

Monday’s Prices action (MCX)

Gold 73094 (-0.55%), Silver 89140 (-0.52), Copper 807.95(-0.17%) Crude 5989 (+1.73%) Natural gas 196.50(-1.45%)

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

Japan

At 5.20am-

Core Machinery Orders m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous 2.1%.

Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at -96T from previous -76T.

Above data could have a negative impact on the Yen.

Eurozone

At 2.30pm—

Final Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.8% from previous 2.8%.

Final CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.2% from previous 2.2%.

CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.0%.

At 4.30pm German Buba President Nagel Speaks.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.

At 11.30am

CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.2% from previous 2.2%.

Core CPI. Data is foreseen at 3.6% from previous 3.3%.

At 2.30pm- HPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.8% from previous 2.7%.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Pound.

CANADA

At 11.00pm – BOC Summary of Deliberations.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a mixed impact on the dollar.

At 6.00pm

Building Permits. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.4%.

Housing Starts. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from the previous 1%.

At 8.00pm – Crude Oil Inventories.

At 11.30pm-

Federal Funds Rate. Data is foreseen at 5.25% from previous 5.50%.

FOMC Economic Projections. FOMC Statement.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Range-Bound Nifty Signals: Is a Powerful Breakout Approaching?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Data	Time	Forecast	Previous
Empire State Manufacturing Index	6:00 PM	-4.1	-4.7

LME Metal	Change
COPPER	-325
ALUMINUM	-500
LEAD	-800
NICKEL	198

Institution	Cash
FII	2365
DII	2532

Economic News Focus: BoJ Policy & UK Retail Sales Volatility

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

Investor Confidence Soars: Nifty Reaches New Peak

BOE Critical Focus: Hold Rates or Surprise Cut?

Technical Outlook – BOE Critical Focus

Economic News: Bank of England policy decision in Focus now

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

“Fed Cuts Rates: Nifty Set to Soar to New Heights!”

Economic News: US Federal Reserve Decision in Focus Today

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

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