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Events
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  • 11:30 AM
  • Crucial UK Retail Sales m/m will be published soon. The data displays the change in the total value of inflation adjusted sales at the retail level. Previously a -2.3%, the forecast suggests an increase to 1.6%.
  • 1:30 PM
  • Europe's flash manufacturing will be arriving this afternoon. The data displays the level of a diffusion index based n surveying about 5000 purchasing managers asking respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Previously at 47.3, the forecast suggests an increase to 48.0.
  • 1:30 PM
  • Crucial Euro Flash Services PMI will be published this afternoon. The data displays a diffusion index based on surveying about 5000 purchasing managers asking respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Previously at 53.2, the forecast suggests an increase to 53.5.
  • 2:00 PM
  • UK's Flash Manufacturing PMI will be published this afternoon. The data displays a level of a diffusion index based on surveying about 650 purchasing managers asking respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Previously at 51.2, the forecast suggests an increase to 51.3.
  • 2:00 PM
  • Crucial UK Flash Services PMI will be published this afternoon. The data displays a level of a diffusion index based on surveying about 650 purchasing managers in the service industry. Previously at 52.9, the forecast suggests an increase to 53.0.
  • 7:15 PM
  • Integral US Flash manufacturing PMI will be published this evening. The data displays the level of a diffusion index based on surveying purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Previously at 51.3, the forecast suggests a decrease to 51.0.
  • 7:15 PM
  • Crucial Flash Services PMI will be published this evening. The data displays a level of a diffusion index based on surveying about 400 purchasing managers asking respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Previously at 54.8, the forecast suggests a decrease to 54.4.
  • 7:30 PM
  • Crucial US Existing Home Sales will be published this evening. The data displays the annualized number of residential building that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. Previously at 4.14 M, the forecast suggests a decrease to 4.08 M.
  • 8:00 PM
  • Integral US Natural Gas Storage data will be published soon. The data displays the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week. Previously at 74 B, the forecast suggests a decrease to 69 B.
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  • 9479799998

US, UK, Eurozone PMI data in spotlight, Impacts Dollar index

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen, pound, euro and Swiss franc, jumped nearly half a percent yesterday. The currency rose after the Swiss National Bank’s second consecutive interest rate hike and the Bank of England’s hints that it would do so in August.

The BoE kept interest rates on hold, but some policymakers said the decision not to cut was a “delicate balance”. of.

The US Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance fell to 238K in the week ending June 15 compared to the 235K expected.

Housing Starts declined 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982K units in May, and Building Permits fell 2.9% to 949K units.

Adding to this, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly declined to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in the previous month, though it remained in positive territory for a fifth successive month.

Gold jumped over one percent yesterday, as weak economic data from the U.S. boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year.

Copper recovered over half percent on hopes for improved demand in China following recent price drops and as world stock markets hit record highs.

Crude Oil futures climbed after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a draw on crude oil and data showing a cooling jobs market that stoked hopes the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon.

Crude inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending June 14 to 457.1 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.2 million-barrel draw.

MCX gold futures settled +1.19% to 72586.Silver settled +2.45% to 91665.Copper settled 0.86% to 861.90. Crude oil +0.98% at 6799. Natural gas -4.96% to 229.90.

Economic data and dollar index events scheduled today

Japan

At 5.20am-

National Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.6% from previous 2.2%.

At 6.00am- Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 50.6 from previous 50.4.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yen.

Eurozone

At 12.30pm. German Buba President Nagel Speaks.

At 12.45pm-

French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 46.8 from previous 46.4.

French Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 50.0 from previous 49.3

At 1.00pm-

German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 46.4 from previous 45.4.

German Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 54.4 from previous 54.2.

At 1.30pm-

Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 48.0 from previous 47.3

Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 53.5 from previous 53.2.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.

U.K.

At 11.30am-

Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.6% from previous -2.3%.

Public Sector Net Borrowing. Data is foreseen at 14.5B from previous 19.6B.

At 2.00pm-

Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.3 from previous 51.2

Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 53.00 from previous 52.90.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the pound.

 Canada

At 6.00pm-

Core Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous -0.6%.

Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.7% from previous -0.2%.

IPPI m/m. Previous was at 1.5%.

RMPI m/m. Previous was at 5.5%.

Above data could have a positive impact on the dollar.

US

At 7.15pm-

Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.0 from previous 51.3.

Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 53.40 from previous 54.80.

At 7.30pm-

Existing Home Sales. Data is foreseen at 4.08M from previous 4.14M.

CB Leading Index m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.4%, from previous -0.6%.

At 8.00pm- Natural Gas Storage. Previous was at 74B.

Above data could have a volatile on the dollar.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read : Gold hits 2-week high, will it continue to rise? Global Cues Muted Gift Nift : Nifty Likely to Open Flat

Recommended Read : Going ‘All In’ for ‘Made in India’: What’s the Buzz Among American Consumers ?

Want help on your Trade?

Chat with our Analyst

Gold hits 2-week high, will it continue to rise?

The price of gold jumped above a two-week high on Thursday, as the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates this year. Expectations were boosted by the release of weaker US economic data, which added to recent signs of slowing economic growth.

Meanwhile, the position of the Bank of England (BoE) on raised investments for exchange rate reduction in August. In addition, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to start cutting interest rates earlier this month and the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) second rate cut in 2024 reinforce the near-term positive outlook for non-productive yellow metals. The Swiss franc also fell after the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates to 1.25% following its March cut

That said, an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields and the underlying bullish tone across the global equity markets turn out to be key factors acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.

The US Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment insurance fell to 238K in the week ending June 15 compared to the 235K expected.

Housing Starts declined 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982K units in May, and Building Permits fell 2.9% to 949K units.

Adding to this, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly declined to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in the previous month, though it remained in positive territory for a fifth successive month.

 Today, PMI number of Eurozone, U.K, Japan and US will lead price momentum. While, focus will on Existing Home Sales data which could weight on the gold prices.

Gold: Technical Outlook

The price of gold rose by more than one percent yesterday. After hitting a two-week high of 72850, prices settled at 72586, compared to the previous day’s 71732.00

Intraday price momentum forms a bullish candlestick, after which prices traded above the short-term moving average. Both indicate that prices may move to a positive node.

However, it should break the immediate resistance at 73250 to test 73550-73850. Alternatively, prices may consolidate between 72900-71850 in today’s trading session

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read : Global Cues Muted Gift Nift : Nifty Likely to Open Flat Forex Newsletter :Pound Sterling Edges Lower Ahead of BoE Decision

Recommended Read : Going ‘All In’ for ‘Made in India’: What’s the Buzz Among American Consumers ?

Want help on your Trade ?

Chat with our Analyst

Global Cues Muted Gift Nift : Nifty Likely to Open Flat

Yesterday’s Pick

HSCL CASH Rs 4000 (Quantity 200)
Investment Pick HDFCBANK Rs 31,200 ( Quantity 200)
Short Term Pick “CUB Rs 8,000 (Quantity 1000)
Momentum Pick NOCIL CASH Rs 2,000 ( Quantity 200)
MGL 27JUN24 1460 CE Rs 2,000 ( Per 5 Lot)
GSFC CASH Rs 2,600 ( Quantity 200)

Nifty Technical View

The Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied bearish candlestick pattern with a long lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating buying support at lower levels. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD show a positive trend. The index is expected to remain range-bound, facing resistance in the 23,600-23,650 range. If it closes decisively above this range, a strong uptrend is likely, with support at 23,400.

Indian Vix

Volatility decreased after rising for the previous two sessions, providing some reassurance to bullish investors. The India VIX, also known as the fear index, dropped by 2.68 percent to 13.35 from 13.71, staying below all key moving averages.

FII And DII Data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs/FPIs) purchased Indian stocks valued at Rs 415.30 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold Indian stocks totaling Rs 325.81 crore during the same period.

Put Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which reflects market sentiment, rose to 1.29 on June 20 from 1.10 in the previous session. An increasing PCR, or a ratio higher than 0.7 and surpassing 1, indicates that traders are selling more Put options than Call options, generally suggesting a strengthening bullish sentiment in the market. Conversely, if the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, it indicates that selling in Call options is higher than in Puts, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market.

Stocks in the news

Amara Raja : The Slovak company specializes in developing custom-designed batteries for various sectors, including automotive, commercial vehicles, motorsport, and aerospace. Battery manufacturer Amara Raja Energy & Mobility (ARE&M) has invested 20 million euros in InoBat AS, which includes a subscription for an additional 4.5% equity stake in the company.


NACL: NACL has engaged Ernst & Young to conduct a forensic audit to investigate certain irregularities flagged by the statutory auditors regarding receivables. In a BSE filing, the company stated, “After receiving their report, the company will reassess the situation to determine if further adjustments and disclosures are necessary.”

Nifty and Bank Nifty Support and Resistance level

Nifty
Resistance 23,615, 23,660, and 23,725
Support based 23,475, 23,430, and 23,365


BankNifty
Resistance 51,850, 51,980, and 52,195
Support based 51,420, 51,290, and 51,075

Index Future levels

Nifty Futures buy above 23600. The suggested targets for this are 23800 and 23,900, with a stop loss set at 23,450.

Bank Nifty future buy above 51,800 index is expected to see upside side levels of 52100 and 52500 and level 51,550 will act as a stop loss.

Momentum Pick : ROSSARI

Buy at ₹812 | Target price: ₹914 | Stop loss: ₹761.

Rossari Biotech Limited, established in 2003 as a partnership firm, specializes in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of specialty chemicals. The company operates two state-of-the-art facilities located in Dahej, Gujarat, and Silvassa, Dadra Nagar Haveli. Rossari Biotech serves global FMCG brands, with its products being utilized in a variety of applications, including consumer and home care products, textiles, animal health and nutrition, and cosmetics.Over the last two quarters, Rossari Biotech Ltd’s revenue has increased from ₹467.29 crore to ₹473.29 crore, reflecting an average growth of 1.3% per quarter. Retail investors have also increased their holdings from 9.46% to 9.90% in the March 2024 quarter.

n the past three years, Fine Organic Industries Ltd has delivered a 66.4% return, outperforming Rossari Biotech Ltd by 105.0%.For Q4 2023-2024, Rossari Biotech Ltd reported a revenue of ₹473.29 crore, a 15.58% increase compared to the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, the company’s revenue grew by 1.28% over the last three months.Net profit for Rossari Biotech Ltd in Q4 2023-2024 rose by 17.77% year-on-year to ₹34.13 crore. However, on a quarterly basis, net profit decreased by 0.76% over the last three months.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read : Gold Price Surges? BOE & Swiss Bank Policies in Focus Today Pound Surprising Response to BOE Decision: What Happened?

Recommended Read : Going ‘All In’ for ‘Made in India’: What’s the Buzz Among American Consumers ?

Want help on your Trade?

Chat With Analyst

Forex Newsletter :Pound Sterling Edges Lower Ahead of BoE Decision

The Forex newsletter for the day is here.,Without further adieu, let’s dive in!

Dollar Index

(Yesterday given Buy above 104.900, target almost done.)

Buy around 105.00
Upside Targets Looks 105.30/105.50
Stop loss below 104.700

XAUUSD

(CMP 2328.72)
(yesterday given Buy above $2329, both target done, hope you have made a good profit)

Buy around $2332
upside Target Looks $2342/$2352
Stop-loss below $2323

XAGUSD


(yesterday given Buy around $29.70, full target done, hope you have made a good profit)

Buy around $29.70
Upside Target Looks $30.50—$31.00
Stop-loss below $29.00

COPPER

Buy above $4.5400
Upside Target Look $4.6200/$4.6300
Stop Loss below $4.4700

CRUDE OIL (WTI)

Buy above $80.82
upside Target $81.30—$81.80
Stop-loss below $80.30

NASDAQ

(Yesterday given Buy around 20235, first target done, hope you have made a good profit)

Buy on dip around 20250 (CMP 20320)
Upside Target Looks 20350/20400
Stop-loss below – 20150

S&P 500 E-Mini

Buy around 5580
Stop loss below 5560
Upside Target Looks 5610/5640

TOP PICK-EURTRY

(CADJPY- Yesterday (Top Pick) we have recommend to Buy around $115.100, first target done, hope you have made a good profit)

Buy around $35.09100
Stop Loss below $34.800
Target- $35.200/$35.400

Pound Sterling Edges Lower Ahead of BoE Decision

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades marginally lower on Thursday, just above the 1.2700 mark against the US Dollar (USD), ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting. The market consensus is for no rate cuts and a 7-2 split in the voting, with 2 favoring a cut.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read : Gold Price Surges? BOE & Swiss Bank Policies in Focus Today Pound Surprising Response to BOE Decision: What Happened?

Recommended Read : Going ‘All In’ for ‘Made in India’: What’s the Buzz Among American Consumers ?

Want help on your Trade?

Chat with our Analyst

Gold Price Surges? BOE & Swiss Bank Policies in Focus Today

The dollar struggled for direction as US economic data weighed on the pace of US rate cuts, but political turmoil in Europe supported a weaker euro. Gold price traded neutral to positive


Meanwhile, the pound rose after data showed UK services inflation was stronger than expected. British inflation in May reached the 2 percent target for the first time in almost three years, data showed on Wednesday, but price pressures remained strong. of.


U.S. retail sales barely rose in May and previous month’s figures were revised down, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting that economic activity remained lacklustre in the second quarter.


Gold prices traded neutral to positive as lackluster U.S. economic activity fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year.


Copper prices bounced as focus switched to shortages while fund buying added momentum, but concerns about demand prospects in top consumer China were highlighted by rising inventories.
After hitting seven-week highs, Crude oil prices retreated nearly half percent as summer demand optimism and concerns over escalating conflicts offset an industry report that said U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose.


MCX gold futures settled +0.02% to 71732.Silver settled +0.44% to 89475.Copper settled +0.35% to 854.55. Crude oil -0.78% at 6733. Natural gas -0.04% to 241.90


Economic data: Gold price, and Events Scheduled Today.


China

At 6.45am-

1-y Loan Prime Rate. Forecast 3.45%, unchanged.

5-y Loan Prime Rate. Forecast 3.95%, unchanged.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yuan.

Swiss National Bank

At 10.00am – SNB Financial Stability Report

At 11.30am- Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 3.84B from previous 4.32B.

At 1.00pm-

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. SNB Policy Rate. Forecast at 1.50%, unchanged.

At 1.30pm- SNB Press Conference.

Above policy could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Eurozone

At 11.20am. German PPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.2%.

At 1.30pm- ECB Economic Bulletin.

At 7.30pm- Consumer Confidence

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.

U.K.

At 4.30pm-

Monetary Policy Summary.

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Data is foreseen at 0-2-7 from previous 0-2-7.

Official Bank Rate. Expect to kept unchanged at 5.25%.

Tentative – BOE Inflation Letter.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the pound.

US

At 6.00pm-

Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 235k, from previous 242K.

Building Permits. Data is foreseen at 1.45M, from previous 1.44M.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at 4.8, from previous 4.5.

Current Account. Data is foreseen at -207B, from previous -195B

Housing Starts. Data is foreseen at 1.37M, from previous 1.36M.

At 8.30pm-Crude Oil Inventories. Forecast -2.8M from previous 3.7M.

Above data could have a volatile on the dollar.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read :Pound Surprising Response to BOE Decision: What Happened? Nifty Bank Stocks Power Up, Leaving Nifty in the Dust

Recommended Read : Going ‘All In’ for ‘Made in India’: What’s the Buzz Among American Consumers ?

Want help on your Trade?

Chat with our Analyst

Pound Surprising Response to BOE Decision: What Happened?

The British pound was broadly stable against the rupee and dollar on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision later in the day, while the dollar fell. leg as it waited for fresh market catalysts.

The pair traded in a narrow range after a vacation in the United States and as investors watched decisions not only from the BoE, but also from the Swiss and Norwegian central banks.
Sterling GBPINR Last trade was at 106.1739 after having eked out a slight gain in the previous session, while, GBPUSD at 1.27139 almost flat.

The pound found support after data showed UK service inflation was stronger than expected. British inflation returned to its 2% target in May for the first time in nearly three years, data showed on Wednesday, but underlying price pressures remained strong.

Today, the Bank of England decision will weight on the currency. The bank is widely expected to keep rates steady at 5.25% and the focus will be on any guidance on how soon an easing cycle could begin.

Further, The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled its policy decision, however, expected to trim its key policy rate by 25 basis points for a second straight meeting, with recent strength in the Swiss franc. The last rate was at 1.50%.

USDCHF and benign domestic inflation adding to the case for looser monetary conditions. The Swissie last stood at 0.8840 per dollar, hovering near a three-month high.

British Pound: Technical Outlook

The GBPINR currency pair was a bit shaky yesterday. After hitting a high of 106.0947, it settled at 106.1739, up 0.14%.

Since the beginning of the week, the pair is trading between 106.2550 and 105.7180, forming an indecisive candlestick. Conversely, if the pair breaks the immediate support at 105.7180, pressure may increase to the next support at 105.3220-105.0550.00

On the upside, a break of immediate resistance above 106.2550 will add additional strength to 106.6150-107.40.
Aggregate momentum is expected to be volatile ahead of the BOE’s policy decision.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read : Nifty Bank Stocks Power Up, Leaving Nifty in the Dust Forex Newsletter: Dollar Index, XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Copper, Oil Updates

Recommended Read : Breaking Down 5 Technical Analysis Myths: Let’s Get the Facts Straight!

Want help on your Trade?

Chat with Our Analyst

Announcements

                                                                              
DataTimeForecastPrevious
US Flash Manufacturing PMI7:15 PM51.051.3
US Flash Services PMI7:15 PM53.454.8
US Existing Home Sales7:30 PM4.08M4.14M
Natural Gas Storage8:00 PM69B74B
LME MetalChange
COPPER3,250
ALUMINIUM-5,575
LEAD-1,300
ZINC-1,850
NICKEL54
IndexPCRMaximum Pain
Nifty1.0623000
Bank Nifty0.8250000
InstitutionCash
FII415
DII-326