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China Considers Weaker Yuan Amid Trump Trade Risks.
Chinese leaders are contemplating allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 in response to the potential re-imposition of high trade tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency. The move aims to offset the impact of proposed tariffs, including a 10% universal import levy and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. By depreciating the yuan, China hopes to make its exports more competitive and ease the economic pressure from heightened trade tensions.
DXY ( Yesterday given Buy above Buy above 106.100 first target done)
Buy above 106.200 Stop loss below 105.900 Target 106.500–106.800
XAUUSD
Sell below 2686 Stop loss above 2696 Target 2676–2666
XAGUSD
Sell around 31.70 Stop loss above 31.90 Target 31.50–31.30
USOIL ( Yesterday given Buy around 67.90 all target done)
Buy above 69.34 Stop loss below 69.10 target 69.60–69.90
COPPER (HG1)
NASDAQ
Buy around 4.2480 Stop loss below 4.2380 Target 4.2580–4.2680
Buy around 24455 Stop loss below 24435 Target 24475–24495
S&P 500 E-Mini ( Yesterday givenBuy around 6066 first target almost target done)
Buy around 6053 Stop loss below 6045 Target 6061–6069
Top pick ( Yesterday given USDCHF Buy above 0.88100 all target done)
USDCHF
Sell around 0.88350 Stop loss above 0.88550 Target 0.88150–0.87950
That’s al for today’s forex newsletter
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
The dollar rose on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data that could offer clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary-easing path, while analysts assess the likely impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies when he begins his second term.
The Australian dollar dropped sharply against the U.S. dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia softened its tone on the inflation outlook. Its rally the day before sparked by China stimulus pledges also tapered off after weak Chinese trade data.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank decide policy on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, with deep rate cuts expected from both.
Crude Oil:
Oil prices steady as concerns eased about the fallout from the overthrow of Syria’s president, despite support from China’s plan to ramp up policy stimulus- a potential boost to demand from the world’s biggest crude buyer.
The power transfer, which followed 13 years of civil war and brought an end to over 50 years of brutal rule by the Assad family, raised concerns of regional instability. Oil prices may get a boost if the Federal Reserve comes through with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points when it meets on Dec. 17-18. That could juice oil demand in the world’s biggest economy, though traders are waiting to see if this week’s inflation data derail the cut.
Gold:
Gold prices gained, helped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a U.S. rate cut this month, with key U.S. inflation data later this week grabbing investors’ attention. Friday’s jobs report has boosted bets around a December Fed rate, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reports of China’s central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month break is supporting gold prices.
Copper:
London copper prices drifted lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened, and data from top consumer China showed exports grew at a slower pace in November as the threat of tariff increases by U.S. President-electDonald Trumploomed.
· Japan’s wholesale prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in November, edging up from October’s 3.6% increase, as firms faced mounting raw material costs. The corporate goods price index (CGPI), which tracks prices businesses charge each other, exceeded market expectations of a 3.4% rise, signaling sustained inflationary pressures.
· German inflation remained flat at 2.4% in November, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday, confirming preliminary data.
· China’s exports slowed in November, rising 6.7% year-on-year—below October’s 12.7% surge and missing the 8.5% forecast. Imports unexpectedly dropped 3.9%, widening the trade surplus to $97.44 billion from $95.72 billion.
· The slowdown comes as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pledges a 10% tariff on Chinese goods to curb fentanyl-related chemical trafficking, with past threats of tariffs exceeding 60%. Meanwhile, unresolved EU tariffs on China-made EVs, reaching up to 45.3%, risk escalating trade tensions further.
Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today
JAPAN
At 5.20am –
BSI Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at 1.8 from Previous 4.5.
PPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 3.4% from previous 3.4%.
Above mentioned economic news and data could have a mixed impact on the Yen.
Australia
At 12.30pm- RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks.
Canada
At 8.15pm-
BOC Rate Statement. Overnight Rate (forecast 3.25% vs 3.75%)
At 9.00pm- BOC Press Conference.
Abovementioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
US
At 7.00pm
Core CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.3%.
CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.2%.
CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.7% from previous 2.6%.
At 9.00pm- Crude Oil Inventories
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Copper prices eased on Tuesday under pressure from a slowdown in China’s export growth and a stronger dollar while the market awaits more clues on China’s 2025 key targets.
Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.1% at $9,218 a metric ton. The contract closed at its highest in nearly a month on Monday after top metals consumer China said it would take more action to boost its economy. MCX Copper settled at 830.65 almost flat.
For copper, used in power and construction, this support faded on Tuesday as data showed that China’s total exports growth missed expectations, imports unexpectedly shrank in November while concern over prospects for China’s construction sector persists.
The focus is now on China’s Central Economic Work Conference meeting this week for more clarity on the next year’s key targets and potential economy stimulus measures.
China’s November copper imports, however, hit a one-year high, customs data showed, supported by restocking amid expanding manufacturing activity and lower prices for the metal.
The U.S. currency strengthened, making dollar-priced metals less attractive for buyers holding other currencies, as traders looked ahead to a U.S. inflation reading on Wednesday for further clues on the pace of Federal Reserve easing.
The U.S. dollar remained steady against major currencies and touched its strongest level this month against the yen, as traders awaited a key U.S. inflation report on Wednesday for insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand.
China’s November export growth slowed compared to the previous month, while imports unexpectedly contracted, highlighting challenges for the world’s second-largest economy. The looming return of Donald Trump to the White House has added fresh trade uncertainties.
Despite broader economic concerns, China’s copper imports rose to a one-year high in November, driven by increased shipments from Africa and restocking efforts to replenish domestic inventories.
China’s exports of rare earth minerals fell by 7.1% in November compared to October, according to customs data, as overseas restocking ahead of Christmas holiday production tapered off. The country shipped 4,416 metric tons of rare earths in November, down from 4,753 tons in October and 4,205.8 tons in November 2023.
For the first 11 months of 2024, cumulative rare earth exports rose 6.6% year-on-year to 52,105 tons. However, imports of rare earths fell 20.9% in November compared to the same period last year, totaling 11,327 tons. From January to November, imports dropped 22.7% year-on-year to 123,288 tons.
Today, the US CPI and Canada’s policy decisions are likely to drive price movements.
Technical View of Copper Prices Drop
Copper prices retreated from the day’s high and settled at 830.65, down 0.05%.
Intraday price action resulted in a formation of a doji candlestick which is indicating for an decisiveness’ in a near future. Although, prices trading above the key support level 815 since last week, which suggest strength to be continued.
Any dip till 825-822 is expect to attract buyer for the upside target 835-842.00
On the downside, support is seen at 815.00 below it may drop till 810-807.50.
Further, a higher US CPI readings may add some pressure or vice a versa.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
China’s trade sees notable fluctuations: exports grew 6.7%, though slower than last month’s 12.7%, while imports plunged 3.3%, the sharpest drop since September 2023. Exports to the US and Europe increased, highlighting strong global demand. Domestic challenges like weak consumption and sluggish real estate weighed on imports. However, a rise in crude oil imports, linked to growing vehicle sales, signals potential economic recovery. With fiscal policy reforms ahead, China may boost growth and impact global markets in 2024.
DXY
Buy above 106.100 Stop loss below 105.900 Target 106.300–106.500
XAUUSD
Buy on dip around 2670 Stop loss below 2660 Target 2680–2690
XAGUSD ( Yesterday given Buy above 31.73 all target done)
Buy above 32.00 Stop loss below 31.70 Target 32.30–32.60
USOIL ( Yesterday given Buy above 68.16 first target done)
Buy around 67.90 Stop loss below 67.60 Target 68.20–68.50
COPPER (HG1)
Sell around 4.2500 Stop loss above 4.2650 Target 4.2350–4.2200
NASDAQ
Buy around 21525 Stop loss below 24425 Target 21625–21725
S&P 500 E-Mini
Buy around 6066 Stop loss below 6056 Target 6076–6086
Top pick ( Yesterday given USDCHF Buy above 0.87900 all target done)
USDCHF
Buy above 0.88100 Stop loss below 0.87900 Target 0.88300–0.88500
That’s all for today’s forex newsletter.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Silver prices climbed nearly three percent on Monday, near to one-month highs, as investors anticipate key U.S. inflation data this week, which could solidify expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Silver also rose alongside gold, buoyed by China’s central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month hiatus. Gold prices gained as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) resumed buying in November, a move seen as supportive for bullion prices amid global economic uncertainties.
Analysts suggest that the PBOC’s decision to increase gold reserves, particularly after Trump’s recent election victory, reflects a strategic approach to economic stability. Central bank buying, easing monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions have propelled gold to record highs this year, with a nearly 28% increase, marking its best performance since 2010.
Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong in an environment of economic and political uncertainty, complemented by expectations of further economic support measures from China, as outlined in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference.
Traders now await U.S. inflation data on Wednesday for further insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
Technical Outlook of Silver Prices Jump
Silver prices rebounded from the day’s low of 91,980 and settled at 95,197, gained by 2.97%.
On the chart, prices have been consolidating above the key support level of 91,500 for the past four trading sessions while forming a long bullish candlestick. Additionally, prices are finding support from the 50-day short-term moving average.
The near-term momentum remains positive; however, after the sharp rise in the previous session, prices may consolidate around 94,250–94,300, which could present a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, a break above 95,880 could lead to further gains, potentially reaching 96,500–97,200.
On the downside, key support is seen at 92,800, with a break below this level potentially shifting the trend lower toward the immediate supports at 91,750 and 90,800.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Economic News Highlights: Key Insights You Need to Know
FX Update
The dollar was up slightly in skittish trade on Monday as investor’s awaited U.S. inflation data later this week, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied after China pledged an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year. While markets have priced in a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week as a near certainty, investors are waiting for U.S. consumer price data on Wednesday..
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices climbed by more than 1.50% as top importer China flagged its first move toward a loosened monetary policy since 2010 aiming to bolster economic growth, state media reported citing a Politburo meeting.
Gold:
Gold prices climbed as China’s central bank resumed gold purchases after a six-month pause, while expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week strengthened.
Copper:
Copper prices jumped on Monday to the highest in nearly a month after top metals consumer China said it would take more action to boost its lethargic economy. Prices had been slightly weaker ahead of the announcement by the Chinese Politburo that it had shifted its monetary policy stance to imply more easing is coming.
· Japan Gross domestic product (GDP) rose an annualized 1.2% in the three months to September, the Cabinet Office’s revised data showed on Monday, higher than economists’ median forecast and the initial estimate of 0.9% growth
· China The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, below the 0.3% increase in October and a 0.5% rise forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. CPI fell 0.6% month-on-month, compared with a 0.3% fall in October and a forecast 0.4% decline.
· US Stocks at wholesalers fell 0.2% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that the gain in inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, would be unrevised at 0.2%.
Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today
China
Tentative –
Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 682K from previous 679K.
USD-Denominated Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 94.0B from previous 95.70B
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Yuan.
Austraila
At 9.00am-
Cash Rate. Expect 4.35% from previous 4.35%. RBA Rate Statement.
At 10.00am – RBA Press Conference.
Above data and event will have an volatile impact on the dollar.
JAPAN
At 11.30am – Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y. Previous was 9.3%.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
At 12.30pm- German Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous -0.2%
At 2.30pm- Italian Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.4%.
All day- ECOFIN Meetings
Above mentioned economic news and data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.
US
At 4.30pm- NFIB Small Business Index. Data is foreseen at 94.6 from previous 93.70.
At 7.00pm
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.2%.
Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q. Data is foreseen at 1.3% from previous 1.9%.
Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
