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Forex Newsletter: Big Moves in Yuan and Key Assets

Forex Newsletter: Big Moves in Yuan and Key Assets

Today’s forex newsletter looks quite interesting

China Considers Weaker Yuan Amid Trump Trade Risks.

Chinese leaders are contemplating allowing the yuan to weaken in 2025 in response to the potential re-imposition of high trade tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency. The move aims to offset the impact of proposed tariffs, including a 10% universal import levy and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. By depreciating the yuan, China hopes to make its exports more competitive and ease the economic pressure from heightened trade tensions.

DXY ( Yesterday given Buy above Buy above 106.100 first target done)

Buy above 106.200
Stop loss below 105.900
Target 106.500–106.800

XAUUSD

Sell below 2686
Stop loss above 2696
Target 2676–2666

XAGUSD

Sell around 31.70
Stop loss above 31.90
Target 31.50–31.30

USOIL ( Yesterday given Buy around 67.90 all target done)

Buy above 69.34
Stop loss below 69.10
target 69.60–69.90

COPPER (HG1)

NASDAQ

Buy around 4.2480
Stop loss below 4.2380
Target 4.2580–4.2680

Buy around 24455
Stop loss below 24435
Target 24475–24495

S&P 500 E-Mini ( Yesterday givenBuy around 6066 first target almost target done)

Buy around 6053
Stop loss below 6045
Target 6061–6069

Top pick ( Yesterday given USDCHF Buy above 0.88100 all target done)

USDCHF

Sell around 0.88350
Stop loss above 0.88550
Target 0.88150–0.87950

That’s al for today’s forex newsletter

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Economic News Decoded: Big Moves Coming for Dollar & Gold

Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

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Economic News Decoded: Big Moves Coming for Dollar & Gold

Economic News Decoded: Big Moves Coming for Dollar & Gold

Top Economic News You Can’t Afford to Miss Today

FX Update

The dollar rose on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data that could offer clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary-easing path, while analysts assess the likely impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies when he begins his second term.

The Australian dollar dropped sharply against the U.S. dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia softened its tone on the inflation outlook. Its rally the day before sparked by China stimulus pledges also tapered off after weak Chinese trade data.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank decide policy on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, with deep rate cuts expected from both.

Crude Oil:

Oil prices steady as concerns eased about the fallout from the overthrow of Syria’s president, despite support from China’s plan to ramp up policy stimulus- a potential boost to demand from the world’s biggest crude buyer.

The power transfer, which followed 13 years of civil war and brought an end to over 50 years of brutal rule by the Assad family, raised concerns of regional instability. Oil prices may get a boost if the Federal Reserve comes through with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points when it meets on Dec. 17-18. That could juice oil demand in the world’s biggest economy, though traders are waiting to see if this week’s inflation data derail the cut.

Gold:

Gold prices gained, helped by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a U.S. rate cut this month, with key U.S. inflation data later this week grabbing investors’ attention. Friday’s jobs report has boosted bets around a December Fed rate, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reports of China’s central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month break is supporting gold prices.

Copper:                                                                                                                                  

London copper prices drifted lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened, and data from top consumer China showed exports grew at a slower pace in November as the threat of tariff increases by U.S. President-electDonald Trumploomed.

MCX Closing Update

Gold 78,338 (1.10%), Silver 95,525 (0.34%), Crude oil 5,845 (0.34%), Copper 830.65 (-0.05%), Natural Gas 267.70(-1.40%)

Major Economic Data and Event Update

·         Japan’s wholesale prices rose 3.7% year-on-year in November, edging up from October’s 3.6% increase, as firms faced mounting raw material costs. The corporate goods price index (CGPI), which tracks prices businesses charge each other, exceeded market expectations of a 3.4% rise, signaling sustained inflationary pressures.

·         German inflation remained flat at 2.4% in November, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday, confirming preliminary data.

·         China’s exports slowed in November, rising 6.7% year-on-year—below October’s 12.7% surge and missing the 8.5% forecast. Imports unexpectedly dropped 3.9%, widening the trade surplus to $97.44 billion from $95.72 billion.

·         The slowdown comes as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pledges a 10% tariff on Chinese goods to curb fentanyl-related chemical trafficking, with past threats of tariffs exceeding 60%. Meanwhile, unresolved EU tariffs on China-made EVs, reaching up to 45.3%, risk escalating trade tensions further.

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

JAPAN

At 5.20am –

BSI Manufacturing Index.  Data is foreseen at 1.8 from Previous 4.5.

PPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 3.4% from previous 3.4%.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a mixed impact on the Yen.

Australia

At 12.30pm- RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks.

Canada

At 8.15pm-

BOC Rate Statement. Overnight Rate (forecast 3.25% vs 3.75%)

At 9.00pm- BOC Press Conference.

Abovementioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

US

At 7.00pm

Core CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.3%.

CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.2%.

CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.7% from previous 2.6%.

At 9.00pm- Crude Oil Inventories

Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Copper Prices Drop After China Data – What’s the Outlook?

Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with us

Copper Prices Drop After China Data – What’s the Outlook?

Copper Prices Drop After China Data – What’s the Outlook?

Copper prices eased on Tuesday under pressure from a slowdown in China’s export growth and a stronger dollar while the market awaits more clues on China’s 2025 key targets.

Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.1% at $9,218 a metric ton. The contract closed at its highest in nearly a month on Monday after top metals consumer China said it would take more action to boost its economy. MCX Copper settled at 830.65 almost flat.

For copper, used in power and construction, this support faded on Tuesday as data showed that China’s total exports growth missed expectations, imports unexpectedly shrank in November while concern over prospects for China’s construction sector persists.

The focus is now on China’s Central Economic Work Conference meeting this week for more clarity on the next year’s key targets and potential economy stimulus measures.

China’s November copper imports, however, hit a one-year high, customs data showed, supported by restocking amid expanding manufacturing activity and lower prices for the metal.

The U.S. currency strengthened, making dollar-priced metals less attractive for buyers holding other currencies, as traders looked ahead to a U.S. inflation reading on Wednesday for further clues on the pace of Federal Reserve easing.

The U.S. dollar remained steady against major currencies and touched its strongest level this month against the yen, as traders awaited a key U.S. inflation report on Wednesday for insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand.

China’s November export growth slowed compared to the previous month, while imports unexpectedly contracted, highlighting challenges for the world’s second-largest economy. The looming return of Donald Trump to the White House has added fresh trade uncertainties.

Despite broader economic concerns, China’s copper imports rose to a one-year high in November, driven by increased shipments from Africa and restocking efforts to replenish domestic inventories.

China’s exports of rare earth minerals fell by 7.1% in November compared to October, according to customs data, as overseas restocking ahead of Christmas holiday production tapered off. The country shipped 4,416 metric tons of rare earths in November, down from 4,753 tons in October and 4,205.8 tons in November 2023.

For the first 11 months of 2024, cumulative rare earth exports rose 6.6% year-on-year to 52,105 tons. However, imports of rare earths fell 20.9% in November compared to the same period last year, totaling 11,327 tons. From January to November, imports dropped 22.7% year-on-year to 123,288 tons.

Today, the US CPI and Canada’s policy decisions are likely to drive price movements.

Technical View of Copper Prices Drop

Copper Prices Drop After China Data – What’s the Outlook?

Copper prices retreated from the day’s high and settled at 830.65, down 0.05%.

Intraday price action resulted in a formation of a doji candlestick which is indicating for an decisiveness’ in a near future. Although, prices trading above the key support level 815 since last week, which suggest strength to be continued.

Any dip till 825-822 is expect to attract buyer for the upside target 835-842.00

On the downside, support is seen at 815.00 below it may drop till 810-807.50.

Further, a higher US CPI readings may add some pressure or vice a versa.

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Your Essential Forex Newsletter for Profitable Trades

Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with us

Your Essential Forex Newsletter for Profitable Trades

Your Essential Forex Newsletter for Profitable Trades

Today’s forex newsletter is packed with intriguing insights and updates you won’t want to miss!

China’s Trade Shifts: Exports Rise, Imports Drop, and Economic Reforms Loom

China’s trade sees notable fluctuations: exports grew 6.7%, though slower than last month’s 12.7%, while imports plunged 3.3%, the sharpest drop since September 2023. Exports to the US and Europe increased, highlighting strong global demand. Domestic challenges like weak consumption and sluggish real estate weighed on imports. However, a rise in crude oil imports, linked to growing vehicle sales, signals potential economic recovery. With fiscal policy reforms ahead, China may boost growth and impact global markets in 2024.

DXY

Buy above 106.100
Stop loss below 105.900
Target 106.300–106.500

XAUUSD

Buy on dip around 2670
Stop loss below 2660
Target 2680–2690

XAGUSD ( Yesterday given Buy above 31.73 all target done)

Buy above 32.00
Stop loss below 31.70
Target 32.30–32.60

USOIL ( Yesterday given Buy above 68.16 first target done)

Buy around 67.90
Stop loss below 67.60
Target 68.20–68.50

COPPER (HG1)

Sell around 4.2500
Stop loss above 4.2650
Target 4.2350–4.2200

NASDAQ

Buy around 21525
Stop loss below 24425
Target 21625–21725

S&P 500 E-Mini

Buy around 6066
Stop loss below 6056
Target 6076–6086

Top pick ( Yesterday given USDCHF Buy above 0.87900 all target done)

USDCHF

Buy above 0.88100
Stop loss below 0.87900
Target 0.88300–0.88500

That’s all for today’s forex newsletter.

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Silver Prices Jump 3%: What’s the Reason Behind It?

Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with us

Silver Prices Jump 3%: What’s the Reason Behind It?

Silver Prices Jump 3%: What’s the Reason Behind It?

Silver prices climbed nearly three percent on Monday, near to one-month highs, as investors anticipate key U.S. inflation data this week, which could solidify expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Silver also rose alongside gold, buoyed by China’s central bank resuming gold purchases after a six-month hiatus. Gold prices gained as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) resumed buying in November, a move seen as supportive for bullion prices amid global economic uncertainties.

Analysts suggest that the PBOC’s decision to increase gold reserves, particularly after Trump’s recent election victory, reflects a strategic approach to economic stability. Central bank buying, easing monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions have propelled gold to record highs this year, with a nearly 28% increase, marking its best performance since 2010.

Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong in an environment of economic and political uncertainty, complemented by expectations of further economic support measures from China, as outlined in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference.

Traders now await U.S. inflation data on Wednesday for further insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.

Technical Outlook of Silver Prices Jump

Silver Prices Jump 3%: What’s the Reason Behind It?

Silver prices rebounded from the day’s low of 91,980 and settled at 95,197, gained by 2.97%.

On the chart, prices have been consolidating above the key support level of 91,500 for the past four trading sessions while forming a long bullish candlestick. Additionally, prices are finding support from the 50-day short-term moving average.

The near-term momentum remains positive; however, after the sharp rise in the previous session, prices may consolidate around 94,250–94,300, which could present a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, a break above 95,880 could lead to further gains, potentially reaching 96,500–97,200.

On the downside, key support is seen at 92,800, with a break below this level potentially shifting the trend lower toward the immediate supports at 91,750 and 90,800.

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Economic News: Surprises in Australia’s Rates and German CPI

Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with us

Economic News: Surprises in Australia’s Rates and German CPI

Economic News: Surprises in Australia’s Rates and German CPI

Economic News Highlights: Key Insights You Need to Know

FX Update

The dollar was up slightly in skittish trade on Monday as investor’s awaited U.S. inflation data later this week, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied after China pledged an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year. While markets have priced in a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week as a near certainty, investors are waiting for U.S. consumer price data on Wednesday..

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil prices climbed by more than 1.50% as top importer China flagged its first move toward a loosened monetary policy since 2010 aiming to bolster economic growth, state media reported citing a Politburo meeting.

Gold:

Gold prices climbed as China’s central bank resumed gold purchases after a six-month pause, while expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week strengthened.

Copper:                                                                                                                                  

Copper prices jumped on Monday to the highest in nearly a month after top metals consumer China said it would take more action to boost its lethargic economy. Prices had been slightly weaker ahead of the announcement by the Chinese Politburo that it had shifted its monetary policy stance to imply more easing is coming.

MCX Closing Update

Gold 77,486 (1.13%), Silver 95,197 (2.97%), Crude oil 5,825 (1.73%), Copper 831.05 (1.13%), Natural Gas 271.50(3.63%)

Major Economic Data and Event Update

·         Japan Gross domestic product (GDP) rose an annualized 1.2% in the three months to September, the Cabinet Office’s revised data showed on Monday, higher than economists’ median forecast and the initial estimate of 0.9% growth

·         China The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, below the 0.3% increase in October and a 0.5% rise forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. CPI fell 0.6% month-on-month, compared with a 0.3% fall in October and a forecast 0.4% decline.

·         US Stocks at wholesalers fell 0.2% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that the gain in inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, would be unrevised at 0.2%.

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

China

Tentative –

Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 682K from previous 679K.

USD-Denominated Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 94.0B from previous 95.70B

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Yuan.

Austraila

At 9.00am-

Cash Rate. Expect 4.35% from previous 4.35%. RBA Rate Statement.

At 10.00am – RBA Press Conference.

Above data and event will have an volatile impact on the dollar.

JAPAN

At 11.30am – Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y.  Previous was 9.3%.

Above data could have a mixed impact on the Yen.

Eurozone

At 12.30pm- German Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous -0.2%

At 2.30pm- Italian Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.4%.

All day- ECOFIN Meetings

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.

US

At 4.30pm- NFIB Small Business Index. Data is foreseen at 94.6 from previous 93.70.

At 7.00pm

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.2%.

Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q. Data is foreseen at 1.3% from previous 1.9%.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Forex Newsletter: Gold, USD, Oil, and Major Indices Updates

Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with us

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