BOE Gov Bailey speaks, IMF meeting in Focus today

October 22, 2024

Dollar Index

The dollar strengthened on Monday, supported by a rise in U.S. bond yields, as robust U.S. economic data indicated that the Federal Reserve can afford to be patient before cutting rates. Investors are also positioning ahead of the November 5 presidential election. The greenback has climbed for three consecutive weeks, driven by a series of positive economic reports that have prompted investors to temper their expectations regarding the size and pace of future Fed rate cuts.

Crude Oil:

Crude prices moderately higher supported by Chinese banks to cut interest rates may spur economic growth and is bullish for crude prices. Also, heightened Middle East tensions are underpinning crude prices. However, a stronger dollar today is limiting gains in energy prices.

Gold:

Gold took a breather after surging to a record high on Monday, as higher U.S. Treasury yields and dollar offset support from growing uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election and the Middle East war. Bullion, considered a hedge against political and economic uncertainty, has climbed over 32% so far this year, shattering multiple record peaks as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut combined with safe-haven demand set up a perfect storm for gold.

Copper:

Copper prices fell as funds exited industrial metals and switched to gold to reduce exposure to China’s struggling economy.

Prices action (MCX)

Gold 78030 (+0.40%), Silver 97448 (+2.14%), Copper 814.80(-0.91%) Crude Oil 5962 (+1.83%) Natural gas 194 (+1.62%)

Yesterday Data and Event Update –

China cut its lending rates on Monday, reducing the one-year LPR to 3.10% and the five-year to 3.6%, following last month’s stimulus measures. While initial market reactions were positive, concerns persist about whether these efforts will fully revive growth. Q3 economic data beat expectations, but property investment remains weak. Officials are still confident in meeting the 5% growth target.

German producer prices fell more than expected in September, declining 1.4% year on year, due mainly to significantly lower energy prices, the federal statistics office said on Monday.

Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today (BOE Gov Bailey speaks, IMF meeting in Focus today)

At 11.30am- Public Sector Net Borrowing. Data is foreseen at 17.4B from previous 13.4B

At 6.45pm- MPC Member Greene Speaks.

At 6.55pm- BOE Gov Bailey Speaks

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound .

Canada

At 6.00pm-

IPPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.4% from previous -0.8%.

RMPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -1.7%from previous -3.1%.

Above data and policy could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

At 7.30pm-

FOMC Member Harker Speaks.

Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Day- 2 – IMF Meetings Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Focus : Copper Price Faces Struggle to Break Key Resistance सोना 78000 और चाँदी 98000 पार!! आगे क्या करें?

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Focus : Copper Price Faces Struggle to Break Key Resistance

October 22, 2024

Copper price retreated from a one-week high on Monday, pressured by data showing the global refined copper market had a 54,000 metric ton surplus in August, compared to a 73,000 metric ton surplus in July, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) in its latest monthly bulletin.

For the first eight months of the year, the market posted a 535,000 metric ton surplus, a significant increase from the 75,000 metric ton surplus recorded during the same period last year, the ICSG noted. In August, global refined copper output was 2.32 million metric tons, while consumption stood at 2.27 million metric tons. When adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories, the surplus was 42,000 metric tons in August, down from 63,000 metric tons in July.

Adding to the pressure, higher U.S. Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar offset support from growing uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election and the ongoing Middle East conflict. These factors weighed on market sentiment.

Despite this, copper prices briefly climbed to a one-week high as interest rate cuts in China raised hopes for stronger demand from the world’s top consumer, amid persistent concerns about the country’s struggling property sector. Traders noted that the stronger U.S. dollar, which makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, subdued demand and triggered profit-taking on long copper positions after the New York open.

Benchmark copper (CMCU3) on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.6% to $9,563 per metric ton, after touching a session high of $9,758 earlier in the day.

China’s latest 25-basis-point rate cut, larger than expected, followed previous reductions in other policy rates last month as part of broader stimulus measures aimed at reviving the economy. However, China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, due to weak domestic demand, slowing export growth, and a struggling property sector, which consumes significant amounts of industrial metals.

Markets are now awaiting a clearer roadmap to restore China’s economy to more sustainable long-term growth. However, some analysts believe that the current measures are more focused on stabilizing the economy rather than implementing aggressive stimulus. “The government seems well aware of these challenges and is avoiding ‘old school’ stimulus measures, particularly because of the substantial stock of both finished and unfinished property.”

Technical Outlook – Copper Futures

Copper prices retreated from a high of 832 and settled at 814.80, down from the previous day’s close of 822.25. The prices failed to sustain above the previous demand zone at 833, forming a long bearish candlestick, which indicates that any rise towards 828-830 could face selling pressure, with immediate support seen around 815-810.

Additionally, the RSI is not providing a clear directional signal at this point.

Therefore, copper prices are expected to consolidate within the 833-810 range in the near term. A break above 833 could signal a recovery, with prices potentially testing the 840-848 resistance level.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Will Silver Prices Break Key Resistance to Shine? सोना 78000 और चाँदी 98000 पार!! आगे क्या करें?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

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सोना 78000 और चाँदी 98000 पार!! आगे क्या करें?

October 21, 2024

दिवाली-स्पेशल-रिपोर्ट Download

Will Silver Prices Break Key Resistance to Shine?

October 21, 2024

Silver prices soared to $32.9 per ounce on Friday, marking their highest level in nearly 12 years, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

The tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has fueled market volatility, while the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces has intensified concerns over broader regional conflict.

Geopolitics took center stage as Hezbollah escalated its confrontation with Israel, and U.S. Defense Secretary Austin suggested Sinwar’s death could open the door for a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, strong economic data from China, the world’s top metals consumer, further supported silver prices, alongside the European Central Bank’s third rate cut of the year aimed at combating inflation.

Adding to this, Expectations of continued central bank easing, including potential rate cuts from the Bank of England, could sustain silver’s momentum. However, prices face significant resistance as they approach multi-year highs, with the potential for correction if geopolitical risks ease or monetary policy shifts unexpectedly.

Consequently, global yields tumbled, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal. The US 10-year Treasury note yield has fallen two basis points (bps) during the day and is at 4.073% after hitting a weekly high of 4.142%.

Technical Outlook – Silver Futures

Silver prices surged over 4% last week, marking the largest gain in a month, with a high of 95,521 and closing at 95,402 compared to the prior week’s 91,690.

The chart shows prices consolidating above the key support level of 88,000, forming higher highs, signaling potential for further upside.

Silver is approaching its multi-week high of 96,493, and a sustained break above this level could target the next resistance zone at 97,400-98,200.

Failure to break this resistance may trigger a corrective move toward 94,000-92,500.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: China rate,Global PMI, BOC Rate in Focus this week , Forex Focus: ECB Shifts Rate Strategy in Weak Economy

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China rate,Global PMI, BOC Rate in Focus this week

October 21, 2024

China rate decision and the Bank of Canada (BoC) take center stage this week, with investors on edge. U.S. and European PMI data will also be key movers. All eyes are on the BoC, expected to slash rates, which could shake markets and hit the Canadian dollar. Buckle up for a thrilling week!

Important data and event to watch this week – China rate, Global PMI, BOC Rate

CHINA

Markets are digesting China’s latest stimulus measures, focused on boosting the property sector, which remains a drag on the economy. Attention is on Monday’s People’s Bank of China (PBOC) loan prime rate announcement, with further monetary easing expected.

On Friday, the PBOC will announce the medium-term lending facility rate, possibly injecting more liquidity. China’s September industrial profit data will be released on Sunday, October 27.

JAPAN

In Japan, investors will focus on Tokyo’s consumer-price data due Friday, with expectations that core inflation rose 1.7% in October, down from 2.0% in September. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise rates soon, and Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak at an IMF event on Wednesday. The BOJ’s semi-annual financial system report will be released Thursday. Key auctions for climate-transition and long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are also scheduled, with investors watching demand for the 20-year JGB issue.

CANADA

The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) update on Wednesday at 1:45 pm GMT is a key risk event. Investors expect a 97% chance of a 50bp rate cut, following weaker-than-expected inflation in September. This would be the BoC’s fourth consecutive cut, bringing the overnight rate to 3.75%. A 50bp cut would widen the rate gap with the Fed by 125bps, potentially pressuring the Canadian dollar (CAD).

U.K.

U.K. provisional purchasing manager indexes on manufacturing and services sector activity in October are due Thursday. Analysts at 51.5 from the pervious 51.5.

Any weakness in the data could add to the prospect of more rapid interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England, however. Faster rate cuts look more possible after recent weaker-than-expected U.K. inflation data and after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said rate-setters could become “a bit more aggressive” with cutting interest rates if consumer prices continued to decline.

Public finances data for September are released Tuesday and GfK’s consumer confidence indicator for October on Friday.

Eurozone

Eurozone provisional PMI data for manufacturing and services in October will be released Thursday, with weak numbers potentially fueling expectations of faster ECB rate cuts. The data is foreseen at 45.1 from previous 45 and 51.5 from previous 51.4, respectively.

The ECB recently cut rates by 25 basis points, and more signs of economic strain could prompt further easing. Consumer confidence data for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and Italy are due throughout the week. Bond auctions in Slovakia, Belgium, Italy, and Germany are also scheduled, with Germany launching new Schatz notes and reopening Bunds.

U.S. provisional PMI surveys on Thursday will offer insights into manufacturing and services activity. The data is foreseen at 47.5 from previous 47.3 and 55 from previous 55.2, respectively. Strong recent data, like retail sales, have lowered expectations for large Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now anticipating smaller 25 basis-point reductions in November and December.

Key reports this week include existing-home sales on Wednesday, new home sales on Thursday, and durable goods orders on Friday. Treasury auctions of 20-year bonds and five-year inflation-protected Treasurys will also be watched.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Forex Focus: ECB Shifts Rate Strategy in Weak Economy , Can Shrinking Crude oil Stocks Prevent a Price Collapse?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Forex Focus: ECB Shifts Rate Strategy in Weak Economy

October 18, 2024

The Forex newsletter for the day is here. DXY , XAUUSD , XAGUSD , COPPER , USOIL , NASDAQ , S&P 500 E-Mini , USDCHF….

DXY

Sell below 103.250
Stop loss above 103.400
Target 103.100—102.850

XAUUSD

Buy around 2695
Stop loss below 2673
Target 2710–2725

XAGUSD

Buy around 32.00
Stop loss below 31.75
Target 32.25–32.50

COPPER (HG1)

( Yesterday given Buy around 4.3000 all target done)

Sell on rise 4.4500
Stop loss above 4.5000
Target 4.4000—4.3500

USOIL

Sell below 69.40
Stop loss above 71.00
Downside target look 68.00–67.00

NASDAQ

( Yesterday given Sell around 20500 almost all target done)

Sell around 20550
Stop loss above 20650
Downside target 20450—20350

S&P 500 E-Mini

( Yesterday given Sell below 5900 first target done)

Sell around 5915
Stop loss above 5927
Target 5900–5885

Top Pick

AUDUSD

Buy around 0.67050
Stop loss below 0.66900
Target 0.67200—0.67350

The ECB’s recent rate cut reflects growing concerns over economic stagnation and inflation pressures. With a focus on risk management, future decisions will depend on incoming data. Despite high domestic inflation, a gradual normalization of policy is expected, with another cut likely in December.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Can Shrinking Crude oil Stocks Prevent a Price Collapse? , China Economic Numbers, UK Retail sales will in Focus today

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Data	Time	Forecast	Previous

LME Metal	Change
COPPER	-1925
ALUMINUM	-2500

Index	PCR	Maximum Pain
Nifty	0.83	25950
Bank Nifty	0.62	52300

Institution	Cash
FII	-2262
DII	3226

BOE Gov Bailey speaks, IMF meeting in Focus today

Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today (BOE Gov Bailey speaks, IMF meeting in Focus today)

Focus : Copper Price Faces Struggle to Break Key Resistance

Technical Outlook – Copper Futures

सोना 78000 और चाँदी 98000 पार!! आगे क्या करें?

Will Silver Prices Break Key Resistance to Shine?

Technical Outlook – Silver Futures

China rate,Global PMI, BOC Rate in Focus this week

Important data and event to watch this week – China rate, Global PMI, BOC Rate

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