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6:00 PM
Crucial US Core PCE Price index m/m wil be published this evening. The data displays a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. It's the Federal Reserve's primary inflation measure. Previously at 0.1%, the forecast suggests an increase to 0.2%.
7:30 PM
Integral US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published tonight. The Level of a composite index based on surveying about 500 consumers asking respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Previously at 66.0, the forecast suggests an increase to 66.3.
Silver price fell more than four percent on Thursday. Prices fell to 11-week lows amid a gloomy outlook for the industry and increased uncertainty in the global economy. In addition, investors consolidated positions to focus on US economic data, which could provide additional information on the timing of possible rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The US gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.8 percent annually in the second quarter, according to the first estimate released on Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This positive reading, which beat market expectations by 2%, follows the 1.4% growth reported in the first quarter. Other data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 19, reported a better-than-expected figure of 235,000.
The economic outlook for the US shows mixed signs but signals of impending disinflation make the market confident in a September cut by the Fed. Despite the pressure, bank officials remain reluctant to hastily implement cuts and maintain a data-dependent stance.
Further, Preliminary PMI readings for July showed that manufacturing activity largely turned contractionary in major economies, suggesting that the global economy may be slowing.
Demand concerns in top consumer China also continued to pressure silver prices amid a lack of concrete and forceful policy measures to boost the economy and revive the property sector.
Meanwhile, China’s central bank delivered a surprise and unscheduled cut to its one-year medium-term lending facility rate amid efforts by authorities to support the economy with monetary stimulus.
Now, focus will turn to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June later today. Any further signs of cooler inflation might spur the rate cut expectation by the US Federal Reserve and could limited the losses.
Technical Outlook : Silver Price
Silver prices continued their sharp decline for seven days in a row. Prices fell to 80,666, the lowest since May 3, 2024, and settled at 81,331, compared to the previous day’s close of 84,894.00.
On the above chart, prices reversed from a high of 94011 and fell to 80666. As prices are trading near the all-important 80200 level, a break below will cause a panic to 79500-79300.00.
Otherwise, failure of the breakout will provide support and prices will stabilize at 80300-84000 levels in the near future.
The US dollar was lower on Thursday; The euro rose slightly, while the Japanese yen hit a multi-month high ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. In focus, core PCE Price Index today
The Japanese yen rose for a fourth straight session against the dollar on Thursday, hitting a 2-1/2-month high, as investors trimmed their long bets on the currency ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting.
The unwinding of short bets against the yen, a financial currency used in transfer transactions, came amid a recent slide in global stocks that is sending investors to traditionally safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese currency. However, US stocks recovered on Thursday after sharp selling in the previous session. of.
Advance estimates showed that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.0% rate.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased at a 2.9% rate after surging at a 3.7% pace in the first quarter.
Other data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 19, reported a better-than-expected figure of 235K. On the negative side, June’s Durable Goods Orders saw a significant drop of 6.6%.
Gold dropped more than 2%, after a better-than-expected reading on U.S. gross domestic product fed the potential for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, which contributed to a drop in the price of the precious metal to the lowest level in more than two weeks.
Crude Oil prices edged higher after strong U.S. economic data stoked expectations for higher crude demand, but the gains were limited by concerns about lower oil imports from China.
Copper Prices slipped again and were hovering around a three-and-a-half-month low hit in the previous session, amid demand concerns in top consumer China and a risk-off sentiment.
MCX gold futures settled -2.16% to 67462.Silver settled -4.20% to 81331. Copper settled +0.04% to 796. Crude oil +0.78% at 6572. Natural gas -2.93% to 172.50.
Economic data and events scheduled today (Core PCE Price Index)
Japan
At 5.00am- Tokyo Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.2% from previous 2.1%.
Above data could have a positive impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
At 1.30pm-
Spanish Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 11.4% from previous 12.3%.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.
US
At 6.00pm-
Core PCE Price Index m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.1%.
Personal Income m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous 0.5%.
Personal Spending m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.2%.
At 7.30pm-
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 66.3 from previous 66.00.
Nifty 50 index had a volatile day on July 25th, the day when many financial contracts expire. After a steep decline at the start, the market recovered significantly but still ended slightly lower. Nifty 50 could rise to between 24,500 and 24,600 points if it manages to stay above its 20-day average (currently at 24,373 points). However, if it falls below this average, it might drop to 24,200 or even 24,000 points.
Indian Vix
Volatility experienced a resurgence after a steep decline over the past two trading days. However, it remains subdued compared to key trend indicators. Consequently, market optimists maintain a dominant stance. The India VIX, a barometer of market fear, climbed 7.27% to 12.62 from 11.76.
FII And DII Data
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs/FPIs) sold Indian stocks worth Rs 2,605.49 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) Buy Indian stocks valued at Rs 2,431.69 crore during the same period.
Put Call Ratio
A measure of market sentiment, the Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has surged jumped to 1.21 on July 25, from 0.87 levels in the previous session. This indicates that more investors are betting on the market going up (buying call options) than on it going down (buying put options). Generally, a higher PCR suggests a bullish outlook.
Stocks in the news
Mankind Pharma: The company will buy Bharat Serums and Vaccines for Rs 13,630 crore. The transaction is expected to close within 3–4 months.
SJVN: The company has received a huge order worth Rs 13,497 crore from the Government of Mizoram to complete a pumped storage project.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Support and Resistance level
Nifty
Resistance 24,450, 24,550, and 24,610 Support based 24,250, 24,200, and 24,150
BankNifty
Resistance 51,090, 51300, and 52,010 Support based 50,550, 50,380, and 50,190
Index Future levels
Nifty Futures Buy above 24550 The suggested targets for this are 24,700 and 24,850 with the stop loss set at 24,250.
Bank Nifty Future Buy above 51,150 is expected to see up side levels of 51500 and 51,800 and level 50,550 will act as a stop loss.
Momentum PickIndigo
Buy at ₹4455| Target price: ₹4600 |Stop Loss:₹ 4330
Interglobe Aviation Ltd (Indigo) is India’s largest passenger airline operating as a low-cost carrier. Serving 86 destinations including 24 international destinations, it provides passengers with a simple, unbundled product, fulfilling its singular brand promise of providing “low fares, on-time flights, and a courteous and hassle-free service” to its customers. IndiGo commenced operations in August 2006 with a single aircraft and has grown its fleet to 262 aircrafts.
As of FY24, IndiGo has a market share of 62% in the Indian aviation segment, with the share growing consistently since 2007. It has a market share of 18% in the international passenger segment. It has become the 7th largest airline in the world measured by daily departures and the first Indian airline.In FY24, the company’s EBITDA margin improved to 25% compared to 13% in FY23 due to moderation in fuel costs, high passenger load factors, and firm yields.
Main data today, The dollar fell to a more than two-month low against the yen on Wednesday as short yen futures fell and investors looked hawkish ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. Start removing financial incentives.
Gold prices rose as the dollar weakened and investors turned to US economic data this week for further signals on the timing of central bank rate hikes.
Crude rebounded over one percent after sliding for four consecutive sessions, driven by a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude inventories.
API data showed a decrease of 3.9 million barrels last week, marking the fourth straight week of declines and exceeding market forecasts of a 2.5-million-barrel draw.
Additionally, the risk of short-term supply disruptions provided some support to oil prices, as wildfires in Canada are still threatening more than 10% of the region’s oil production.
Copper prices extended their steep fall, and were hovering around a three-and-a-half-month low hit in the previous session, amid demand concerns in top consumer China and a risk-off sentiment. Lower-than-expected second quarter economic growth and a lack of targeted stimulus to boost China’s ailing property sector from last week’s policy meeting sparked sell-off in metals.
MCX gold futures settled +0.65% to 68952.Silver settled -0.03% to 84894. Copper settled -1.45% to 795.65. Crude oil +0.98% at 6521. Natural gas -3.21% to 177.70.
Economic data and events scheduled today.
Eurozone
At 1.30pm-
German ifo Business Climate. Data is foreseen at 88.9 from previous 88.6.
M3 Money Supply y/y. Data is foreseen at 1.9% from previous 1.6%.
Private Loans y/y. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous 0.3%.
At 8.30pm- ECB President Lagarde Speaks.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.
UK
At 3.30pm-CBI Industrial Order Expectations. Data is foreseen at -19 from previous -18.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the pound.
US
At 6.00pm-
Advance GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 2.0% from previous 1.4%.
Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 237k from previous 243k.
Advance GDP Price Index q/q. Data is foreseen at 2.6% from previous 3.1%.
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous -0.1%.
At 8.00pm- Natural Gas Storage. Above data could have a volatile on the dollar
