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6:00 PM
Integral US Core PPI m/m will be published this evening. The data displays a change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. Previously at 0.3%, the forecast suggests a decrease to 0.2%.
6:00 PM
Crucial US PPI m/m will be published soon. The data displays the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. Previously at 0.2%, the forecast suggests a decrease to 0.1%.
7:30 PM
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published this evening. The data displays a level of a composite index based on surveying consumers. Previously at 70.1, the forecast suggests an increase to 70.9.
The Forex newsletter for the day is here. DXY , XAUUSD , XAGUSD , COPPER , USOIL , NASDAQ , S&P 500 E-Mini , USDCHF , trade data and US PMI in focus
DXY
sell on rise around 102.650 Stop loss above 102.850 Downside target look 102.450–102.250
XAGUSD
( Yesterday Given Sell on rise around 2625–2624 First target almost done )
Buy on dip around 2631–2630 upside target look 2640—2650 Stop loss below 2615
XAGUSD
( Yesterday Given Buy around 30.60 all target done )
Buy around 31.00 Stop loss below 30.70 Upside target look 31.30—31.60
COPPER (HG1)
Buy on dip around 4.4400 Stop loss below 4.4000 Upside target look 4.4800—4.5200
USOIL
Buy around 75.00 Stop loss below 74.00 Upside target look 76.00–77.00
NASDAQ
( Yesterday Given Sell around 20400 first target almost done )
Sell around 20400 Downside target look 20300–20200 Stop loss above 20500
S&P 500 E-Mini
Sell on rise around 5830 stop loss above 5850 downside target look 5810—5790
Top Pick ( Yesterday Given EURCAD Buy on dip around 1.50100 all target done )
USDCHF
Buy around 0.85600 Stop loss below 0.85300 Upside target look 0.85900—0.86200
Forex – Emmanuel Macron, once lauded for his pro-business reforms, now faces criticism over France’s worsening fiscal situation. With rising public debt, a 6.1% deficit, and €60 billion in adjustments, his economic policies are under scrutiny, leaving his political opponents emboldened ahead of future leadership changes.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Gold Price was able to recover nearly half a percent on Thursday after a volatile reaction following the release of US inflation and jobs data.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$13.60 to US$2,639.60 per ounce.
Although the inflation data revealed upside price pressures, the labor market data was weaker than expected, and – given the Federal Reserve’s avowed prioritization of employment security over fighting inflation – suggests a greater chance the bank will maintain a pro-easing stance.
This, in turn, suggests it will go ahead and cut interest rates at its next policy meeting and lower interest rates are bullish for Gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest paying asset.
Gold springs back into the “green” after intially selling of on Thursday following the release of US data.
The precious metal initially dipped after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a rise 2.4% annually in September, which was lower than the 2.5% in August but higher than expectations of 2.3%, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.
CPI ex Food and Energy rose 3.3% annually in September, which was higher than the 3.2% in August and beat expectations of 3.2%, also showing sticky inflationary conditions.
On the Jobs front, however, it was a different story, and Gold rallied back into positive territory after US Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending October 8 raised by 258K, which was above the 225K of the previous week and beat expectations of 230K.
Continuing Claims for week ending September 27 stood at 1.861 million, which was higher than the revised down 1.819M and the 1.83M expected. Overall the data showed some weakness creeping into the jobs market which is likely to keep the Fed on track to cut interest rates (to stimulate borrowing) at its November policy meeting.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly (voting member) said on Wednesday that one or two more rate cuts were needed before the end of the year, adding, “I was more worried about the labor market,” than “accelerating inflation.
The market-based probability of the Fed lowering by 50 bps (0.50%) remained at zero following the release, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. At that time, the probability of a drop of 25 units per second is 89% lower, which is slightly higher than the previous data. In addition – since the inevitable big cut – the odds that the Fed will do nothing in November drop to 11%.
Technical Outlook – Gold Price
Gold prices posted an intraday gain of nearly 0.5%, reaching an intraday high of ₹75,413 before settling at ₹75,297, up from the previous session’s close of ₹74,934.
Since October 4, 2024, the price trajectory has turned bearish, correcting from a swing high of ₹76,630 to a recent low of ₹74,757. However, a rebound from this low led to a close above the prior day’s level.
The intraday price action resulted in the formation of a high wave candlestick, indicating potential momentum reversal. To confirm bullish continuation, prices need to break above the immediate resistance level at ₹75,450, which could pave the way for a move toward ₹75,800–₹76,200.
On the downside, crucial support is located at ₹74,680. A decisive break below this level could accelerate the decline towards ₹74,000–₹73,500.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen on Thursday after data showed signs of labor market weakness and a higher-than-expected rise in U.S. inflation in September even though prices were on a downward trend, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. Labor Department data on Thursday showed that the consumer price index increased 0.2% in September. In the 12 months through September the CPI climbed 2.4%, which was the smallest year-on- year rise since February 2021.
Crude Oil:
Oil prices climbed about 4% on a spike in fuel use before Hurricane Milton barreled across Florida, Middle East supply risks and signs that demand for energy could grow in the U .S. and China. Brent LCOc1 futures rose $1.62, or 2.1%, to $78.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose $1.48, or 2.0%, to $74.72. In the U.S., the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton barreled across Florida, where about a quarter of fuel stations sold out of gasoline, knocking out power to more than 3.4 million homes and businesses.
Gold:
Gold prices extended gains on Thursday after traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest-rate cut next month following the latest U.S. economic data. The higher than expected rise further rules out another 50 basis point cut to interest rates when the Federal Reserve’s policy committee meets next month but may not convince the central bank to pause on lowering rates.
Copper:
Copper prices bounced on hopes that top metals consumer China would announce a fiscal stimulus package that would boost metals demand. Prices have returned to levels reached before China started announcing supportive measures for its flagging economy, which have been below expectations and lacked detail.
U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next month.
The consumer price index increased 0.2% last month after gaining 0.2% in August, the Labor Department said on Thursday. In the 12 months through September, the CPI climbed 2.4%, the smallest since February 2021 following Augusts’ 2.5% advance.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased to 258,000 last week, compared with a analyst estimate of 230,000 claims.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today (US PPI, UK GDP data)
Japan At 5.20am- M2 Money Stock y/y. Data is foreseen at 1.5% from previous 1.3%. Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yen.
Eurozone At 11.30am— German Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.0% vs 0.0%.. Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.
UK At 11.30am— GDP m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% vs 0.0%. Construction Output m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% vs -0.4%. Goods Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at -18.8B vs -20.0B. Index of Services 3m/3m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% vs 0.6%. Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% vs -0.8%. Manufacturing Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% vs -1%. Above data could have a positive impact on the pound.
Canada At 6.00pm— Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 29.8k from previous 22.1k. Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 6.7% from previous 6.6%. Building Permits m/m. Data is foreseen at -7.1% from previous -22.1%. Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
.U .S At 6.00pm- Core PPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.3%. PPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.2%. At 7.15pm- FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks. At 7.30pm- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 70.9 from previous 70.1. At 8.15pm- FOMC Member Logan Speaks. At 10.40pm- FOMC Member Bowman Speaks Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
BANKNIFTY 16 OCT 51200 PE RS.9,750/- (10 Lot) BANKNIFTY 16 OCT 51200 CE RS. 12,000/- (10 Lot) NIFTY 10 OCT 25000 CE RS. 5,000/- (10 Lot) NIFTY 25000 CE/PE SELL STRADDLE RS. 1,375/- (1 Lot)
Nifty’s Technical View
The stock market stayed within its previous day’s trading range on October 10. It ended the day slightly higher, even though global markets were mixed. The market’s volatility decreased, which helped support it. If the nifty market rises above 25,300, the next level to watch is 25,500. On the downside, 24,900 is the initial support level, followed by 24,700, which is a key support level. If the market falls below 24,700, it could signal the start of a new downward trend.
Indian Vix
The market’s volatility has been falling for the past three days. This is good news for investors who are bullish on the market. If the volatility continues to fall, it may make investors even more confident that the market will rise. The India VIX, which measures market fear, fell by 4.44% to 13.50.
Nifty PCR :
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) rose to 0.93 on October 10 from 0.72 the day before. A PCR above 0.7 or close to 1 means that traders are buying more call options than put options. This generally indicates a bullish sentiment in the market. If the PCR falls below 0.7 or approaches 0.5, it means that traders are buying more put options than call options. This indicates a bearish sentiment in the market.
FII And DII Data:
On October 10, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold a net of Rs 4,926.61 crore in the cash segment. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), on the other hand, bought a net of Rs 3,878.33 crore.
Stocks To watch
TCS: Shares of the company will be in focus today as the IT behemoth released its Q2 results last evening. The company missed Street estimates on PAT and margins front. TCS also announced an interim dividend of ₹10 per share.
Tata Elxsi: The engineering and technology services firm reported a 14.7% rise in its Q2 profit on Thursday, exceeding street expectations, thanks to healthy demand in its transportation wing.
IREDA: The Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) on Thursday, October 10, reported a 36.18% year-on-year (YoY) rise in its net profit at ₹387.75 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 (Q2 FY25). However, it was lower than the ₹410 crore that analysts tracked by Bloomberg had estimated.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Support and Resistance level
NIFTY :- Resistance 25,100, 25,150, and 25,350 Support based 25,000, 24,850, and 24,700
BankNifty :– Resistance : 51,650, 51,800, and 52,000 Support based : 51,100, 50,800, and 50,450
Index Future levels
Nifty Futures Sell Below 25,050 The suggested targets for this are 24,950 and 24,850 with the stop loss set below 25,200.
Bank Nifty Buy Above 51,080 index is expected to downside levels of 50,750 and 50,550 and level 51,400 will act as a stop loss.
GE Power India Ltd is engaged in business of engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) of key equipment for thermal and hydro power plants. It is one of the leading players in the Indian power generation equipment market. The company manufactures and provides boilers, mills, air quality control systems, automation & control, and services for steam-powered thermal plants. It is also involved in the EPC of key equipment for hydro and gas-powered plants. It is one of the leading players in the Indian power generation equipment market. 50% power flow in India is managed through GEPIL’s equipment & software.
As of Q3FY24, the order book stood at Rs. 3437 Crs. Rs. 195 crs. orders were added in Q3FY24, On April,24, General Electric Company spun off their investments of 68.58% equity stake to GE Vernova which is the new holding company, During FY22, co. acquired 50% paid-up share capital of NTPC GE Power Services for a total consideration of Rs. 7.2 crores.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Crude Oil price dropped over one percent on Wednesday on rising U.S. crude inventories, while the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the United States curbed price declines.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 82 cents, or 1% at $76.36 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 lost 62 cents, or 0.8%, at $72.95.
Crude inventories jumped by 5.8 million barrels to 422.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel rise.
The country is bracing for a second one, Hurricane Milton, which is expected to make landfall as a major storm in Florida on Wednesday. The storm has already driven up demand for gasoline in the state, which has helped support crude prices.
Further, focus also on China, Brent and WTI both gained more than 1% earlier in the session after prices had plunged on Tuesday by more than 4% on a possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, though markets remain wary of a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure.
China said on Tuesday it was “fully confident” of achieving its full-year growth target but refrained from introducing stronger fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more support for the economy.
Investors have been concerned about slow growth dampening fuel demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Weak demand continues to underpin the fundamental outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 on weakening economic activity in China and North America.
Investors are awaiting developments from expected talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
The oil-producing region has been on high alert for any Israeli response to an Iranian missile attack last week in retaliation for Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon.
Technical Outlook – Crude Oil Price
Crude oil price have retraced from the recent peak of 6495, seen earlier this week, and have declined to a low of 6012 as of yesterday. The session closed at 6119, compared to the previous close of 6244.
On the technical chart, prices are attempting to find support around the previous demand zone at 6020. A sustained hold above this level could lead to a potential rebound towards the 6150-6250 range.
However, if the price breaks below the 6020 support, it is likely to extend the decline towards the 5920-5870 levels. In conclusion, a near-term bounce is anticipated, provided the 6020 support level holds
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
US CPI and Unemployment claims in Focus today. The Indian rupee ended flat on Wednesday while dollar-rupee forward premiums declined
Dollar/Rupee
The Indian rupee ended flat on Wednesday while dollar-rupee forward premiums declined after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark rates unchanged but tweaked its policy stance to “neutral”, opening the door for rate cuts. The rupee closed at 83.9625 against the U.S. dollar, unchanged from its closing level on Tuesday. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which consists of three RBI and three external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for a tenth straight policy meeting.
Crude Oil:
Oil prices fell over 1.40% on rising U.S. crude inventories, while the risk of Iranian supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and Hurricane Milton in the United States curbed price declines.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 82 cents, or 1% at $76.36 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 lost 62 cents, or 0.8%, at $72.95.
Crude inventories jumped by 5.8 million barrels to 422.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel rise.
Gold:
Gold retreated for the sixth straight day on Wednesday on an advancing dollar and diminished expectations for a larger rate cut in November while markets awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting for further insights.
Copper:
Copper prices extended their fall on Wednesday also, touched lowest in two weeks, after top metal consumer China failed to convince investors on how its stimulus would get the economy back on track. Aluminium prices fell further with producers selling forward to lock in high prices and amid uncertainty over China’s plan to revive its economy.
The Reserve bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to leave rates steady on Oct 9despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive 50 basis-point rate cut in September. The RBI’s focus on food price inflation suggests the repo rate will be held at 6.50%.
While inflation has moderated from June’s high, the consumer price index rose 3.65% annually in August, slightly above July’s 3.60%.Sticky food inflation will prevent the RBI from cutting rates in October, but it may lean towards an easing at its December rate review..
FOMC Minutes: A substantial majority of participants supported a 50 basis point cut Highlights from the Sept FOMC Minutes Substantial majority” supported 50bp cut. Committee gained “greater confidence” inflation moving sustainably toward 2% goal.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today(US CPI and Unemployment claims)
New Zealand
At 1.15pm -RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
Above data could have a negative impact on the dollar.
Eurozone
At 1.30pm— Italian Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% vs -0.9%.
At 5.00pm- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.
US
At 6.00pm-
Core CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.3%.
CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.2%.
CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.5%.
Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 231k from previous 225k.
At 6.45pm- FOMC Member Cook Speaks.
At 8.00pm-
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks.
Natural Gas Storage.
At 8.30pm- FOMC Member Williams Speaks.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
