We're online 24x7 so you don't have to be!! Market information is at your fingertips at the right time and right moment. Subscribe to our plans for the full experience.
As part of our ongoing commitment to ensuring the security and compliance of our financial services and as per mandate by the Securities Exchange Board of India, we kindly request you to complete our Know Your Customer (KYC) form. This process is essential for verifying your identity and offering you personalized services.
5:45 PM
Integral Euro Main Refinancing Rate will be published this evening. The data displays the interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. Previously at 3.65%, the forecast suggests a decrease to 3.40%.
5:45 PM
Crucial Euro Monetary Policy Statement will be published tonight. It's the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.
6:00 PM
Integral US Core Retail Sales m/m will be published this evening. The data displays the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Previously at 0.1%, the forecast suggests steady rates at 0.1%.
6:00 PM
Crucial US Retail Sales m/m will be published this evening. The data displays the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Previously at 0.1%, the forecast suggests an increase to 0.3%.
6:00 PM
The US Unemployment Claims will be polished this evening. The data displays the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Previously at 258 K, the forecast suggests a decrease to 241 K.
6:00 PM
Important US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be published this evening. The data displays the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia. Previously at 1.7, the forecast suggests an increase to 4.2.
6:15 PM
The ECB Press Conference is set to take place this evening. The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility.
8:00 PM
Integral US Natural Gas Storage will be published tonight. The data displays the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week. Previously at 82 B, the forecast suggests a decrease to 80 B.
8:30 PM
US Crude Oil Inventories will be published tonight. The data displays the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. Previously at 5.8 M, the forecast suggests a decrease to 1.8 M.
( Yesterday given Buy around 20350 almost all target done)
Sell around 20500 Stop loss above 20650 Downside target 20400—20300
S&P 500 E-Mini
( Yesterday given Buy around 5865 all target done)
Sell below 5900 Stop loss above 5920 Target 5880–5860
Top Pick
NZDUSD
Sell around 0.60750 Stop loss below 0.61100 downside target look 0.60500—0.60200
Forex Newsletter – The European Central Bank is set to implement its second consecutive interest rate cut, driven by easing inflation and stagnant economic growth. Analysts anticipate a 25 basis point reduction on Thursday, with further cuts expected through March as the ECB shifts focus from inflation control to growth support.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
EUR/INR has been in a steep decline since the start of the week, nearing multi-week lows as the euro weakens ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming rate decision today.
The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), trimming the Main Refinancing Rate to 3.4% from 3.65% and the Deposit Facility Rate to 3.25% from 3.5%. This anticipated move comes as the Eurozone faces an uneven, cooling economy, leaving the euro under heavy pressure.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of currencies, continues to rise as markets increasingly price in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election. Trump’s economic plans, which focus on deregulation across several sectors, are fueling optimism for the greenback.
With the ECB set to dominate Thursday’s European session, all eyes will also be on US retail sales data. Markets expect a 0.3% month-on-month rise in September retail sales, up from August’s 0.1%, which could further support the dollar’s strength. As the euro struggles with ECB rate cuts and a weak economic outlook, EUR/INR may face continued downside in the near term.
Technical Outlook – EURO / INDIAN RUPEE
The EUR/INR pair hit a low of 91.22 yesterday, marking its lowest level since August 5, 2024, and closed with an intraday decline of 0.27% at 91.31.
Since the start of the month, the pair has reversed from its high of 93.99, erasing more than 2% of its previous rally. The chart shows the formation of long bearish candlesticks, signaling strong selling pressure.
The pair is now trading near key multi-week support at 91.05, and a decisive break below this level could trigger further downside towards the next support zone of 90.75-90.55.
However, failure to break below 91.05 could provide temporary relief, with potential recovery targets at 91.55-92.20 in the near term.
Beyond technical factors, the euro is heavily influenced by political, geopolitical, and monetary policy uncertainties. Therefore, key developments in these areas will likely shape the pair’s trajectory moving forward.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
The European Central Bank’s decision will be in focus today as markets await potential policy changes.
Dollar Index
The U.S. dollar surged to an 11-week high 103.60 on Wednesday, with the focus on investors dismissed chances of a steep Fed rate cut, factoring in a potential Trump election victory. Meanwhile, the British pound plunged to a two-month low after weaker-than-expected UK inflation data hinted at aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of England. The euro also dropped to its 11-week low ahead of the European Central Bank meeting, amplifying market tensions.
Crude Oil:
The oil price edges lower after selling off on reports that Israel will not attack Iran’s oil facilities. Israel told the United States that a planned retaliatory attack on Iran won’t target nuclear and oil facilities, according to senior Biden administration officials, a promise sought by the White House to head off further Middle East escalation and to avoid a potential oil price increase, per the Wall Street Journal. Traders will closely watch the developments surrounding the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Any signs of escalation could lift the price.
Gold:
Gold prices steadied close to record highs in Asian trade on Wednesday, recouping some recent losses as trader’s maintained bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.
Copper:
Copper prices steadied after logging steep losses in recent sessions, amid doubts over China’s recent stimulus efforts. Copper prices sank in recent sessions as traders were mostly underwhelmed by recent stimulus measures from top importer China, especially as Beijing left out details on the size and timing of the planned measures.
· British inflation fell by more than expected last month, including key measures watched by the Bank of England, according to data on Wednesday that bolstered bets on an interest rate cut next month.
· The rate of annual consumer price inflation dropped to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August, the lowest reading since April 2021, the Office for National Statistics said.
· Core inflation, which excludes the energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dropped to 3.2% from 3.6% in August.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled todaywill be in focus
Japan
At 5.20am- Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at -0.49T from previous -0.60T.
At 10.20am- Tertiary Industry Activity m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous 1.4%.
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yen.
Australia
At 6.00am
Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 25.2K from previous 47.5K.
Employment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.2% from previous 4.2%.
RBA Bulletin.
Above data could have a positive impact on the dollar.
Eurozone
At 2.30pm-
Final Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.7% from previous 2.7%.
Final CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 1.8% from previous 1.8%.
Italian Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 5.55B from previous 6.74B.
Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 17.8B from previous 15.5B.
At 5.45pm-
Main Refinancing Rate. Data is foreseen at 3.40% from previous 3.65%.
At 6.15pm- ECB Press Conference.
Above data and policy could have a volatile impact on the Euro.
Canada
At 6.00am- Foreign Securities Purchases. Data is foreseen at 9.50B from previous 10.98B.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
US
At 6.00pm-
Core Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.1%.
Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.1%.
Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 241k from previous 258k.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at 4.2 from previous 1.7.
At 6.45pm-
Capacity Utilization Rate. Data is foreseen at 77.9% from previous 78%.
Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.8%.
At 7.30pm-
Business Inventories m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.4%.
NAHB Housing Market Index. Data is foreseen at 43 from previous 41
At 8.00pm- Natural Gas Storage.
At 8.30pm-
Crude Oil Inventories.
FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks.
Tentative- Federal Budget Balance. Data is foreseen at 4.5B from previous -380.1B
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
( Yesterday given Sell around 20600 All target done)
Buy around 20350 Stop loss below 20250 Upside target look 20450–20550
S&P 500 E-Mini
( Yesterday given Sell around 20600 all target done)
Buy around 5865 Stop loss below 5850 Upside target look 5880–5895
Top Pick
NZDUSD
Buy around 0.60700 Stop loss below 0.60400 Upside target look 0.61000—0.61300
In September 2024, UK consumer price inflation slowed, with CPIH rising 2.6% year-on-year, down from 3.1% in August. CPI rose 1.7%, down from 2.2%. The transport sector drove the largest downward impact, while food and non-alcoholic beverages offset some of this decline.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Gold price advanced on Tuesday as US Treasury bond yields retreated, limiting gains for the US Dollar. The economic docket was light, featuring the release of the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NY Fed Consumers Expectations Survey.
The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index for September posted a weak figure. Meanwhile, inflation expectations were upwardly revised for the month, as reported in the latest NY Fed Consumers Expectations Survey.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell by eight basis points (bps) to 4.03%, making the non-yielding metal more attractive while signaling increased demand for US Treasury bonds.
Bullion prices extended their gains after bouncing off the daily low, although the US Dollar remained firm. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, remained steady at 103.25.
In other developments, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continued to draw attention. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the Fed’s dual mandate risks are now balanced, adding that the labor market is not contributing to inflation. She expressed cautious optimism about the economic outlook and mentioned the possibility of one or two rate cuts “if forecasts are met.”
Gold tends to perform well during periods of geopolitical risk. In recent developments, Israel announced plans to target military installations in retaliation against Iran and Hezbollah following the October 1 missile strike.
Looking ahead, the market’s focus shifts to upcoming US Retail Sales, Industrial Production data, and Initial Jobless Claims, which are due later this week.
Technical Outlook – Gold Price
Gold price recorded a 0.41% gain, closing near a record high of 76,360, compared to the previous day’s close of 76,045. After breaking through the key resistance level of 75,450, prices reached 76,488.
The outlook shared last Monday, targeting the 75,800-76,200 range, was successfully achieved.
Since the beginning of the month, gold prices have struggled to break the significant resistance level of 76,620, forming a cluster of indecisive candlestick patterns. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of negative divergence, moving in the opposite direction of the price trend.
These technical factors indicate a potential trend reversal, with prices likely to retrace towards the immediate support zone of 75,900-75,550 in the near term. On the upside, only a fresh breakout above 76,620 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, potentially targeting new highs in the range of 77,200-77,800.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Today, the spotlight is focused on the release of UK inflation data.
Dollar Index
The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Tuesday, traded at 103.22, resuming the latest uptrend that took it to more than two-month highs fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest interest rate cuts over the next year and a half.
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices tumbled more than 4% to a near two-week low on Tuesday due to a weaker demand outlook and after a media report said Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear and oil sites, easing fears of a supply disruption.
Gold:
Gold edged higher nearly half percent lifted by retreating Treasury yields, while investors cautiously awaited more data that could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle. Markets’ attention will be on upcoming U.S. retail sales, industrial production data, and weekly jobless claims due later this week.
Copper:
Copper prices sank to a three-week low on Tuesday, pressured by confusion about the scale of stimulus measures in top metals consumer China and geopolitical uncertainty. Copper pared losses due to buying from arbitrage traders and industrial consumers, a trader said. Copper and other base metals rallied last month after China announced what seemed to be a massive plan to revive its ailing economy, but since then, officials have failed to provide much detail.
