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11:30 AM
Crucial UK Claimant Count Change will be published today. The data displays the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits during the previous month. Previously at 3.7 K, the forecast suggest a decrease to 20.2 K.
6:00 PM
Integral US Empire State Manufacturing Index will be published this evening. The data displays the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York State. Previously at 11.5, the forecast suggests a decrease to 3.4.
( Yesterday given Buy above 20550 First target done)
Sell around 20600 Stop loss above 20680 Downside target look 20520—50460
S&P 500 E-Mini
Sell around 5900 Stop loss above 5920 Downside target look 5880–5860
Top Pick
NZDUSD
( Yesterday Given NZDUSD Buy around 0.60800 almost first target done )
Buy around 0.60800 Stop loss below 0.60500 Upside target look 0.61100—0.61400
Traders are preparing for increased yuan fluctuations as the US elections approach, with fears of new tariffs under a potential Trump presidency. Implied volatility in dollar-yuan pairs surged, reflecting concerns over potential impacts on Chinese exports and broader currency markets.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Copper prices dropped over one and half percent on Monday, driven by uncertainty surrounding China’s stimulus plans, deflationary pressures in the world’s largest consumer, and a stronger dollar. Despite the downturn, higher Chinese imports of copper provided some support to the market.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined 1.3%, trading at $9,660 per metric ton. Contributing to demand concerns were lower-than-expected new bank lending figures from China and slowing growth in total social financing. These factors, along with deepening producer price deflation, underscore the urgent need for China to implement more robust stimulus measures to stimulate demand and economic recovery.
Although China pledged over the weekend to “significantly increase” its debt to boost growth, the absence of a specified financial package, including for the property sector, left markets unimpressed. Edward Meir, a consultant at Marex, noted, “The selloff in base metals is largely due to general disappointment with the lack of details in China’s stimulus program.” While China’s finance minister indicated that the government had room to expand its deficit and issue more debt, the failure to quantify the stimulus size dampened market sentiment.
The firm US dollar added further pressure, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thus limiting demand.
On a positive note, China’s unwrought copper imports in September surged to 479,000 tons, a 15.4% increase from August. This rise reflects improving seasonal demand and a healthier outlook for copper consumption. Additionally, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 156,485 tons, a reduction of over 50% since June, indicating firm demand for the metal used in key sectors such as power and construction.
Overall, the market’s mood soured as China’s export growth, a key driver of its economy, slowed in September, raising concerns that manufacturers are reducing prices to clear inventories ahead of new tariffs from several trade partners.
Technical Outlook – Copper Futures
Copper prices reversed from the session high of 839 and closed at 825.40, marking a 1.75% decline from the previous day’s close of 840.10.
The formation of a long bearish candlestick on the chart signals mounting short-term selling pressure. However, a decisive break below the immediate support at 819.20 would be required to target the next support levels at 815-812.50.
Alternatively, any upward move toward 828-830 is likely to encounter selling pressure in the near term. On the upside, resistance is identified at 845.00, with a break above this level potentially leading to a recovery toward 852-855.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
The Dollar Index flexed its muscles on Monday, surging to a two-month high as haven currencies took a backseat, U.S. shares rallied, and traders braced for a packed week of data and corporate earnings. With the Federal Reserve signaling a dovish stance, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted that more rate cuts could be on the horizon as inflation inches toward the Fed’s 2% target.
On the other hand, the Euro is feeling the heat, slipping ahead of Tuesday’s data dump and Thursday’s much-anticipated 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). All eyes are on the ECB to see how they’ll juggle a slowing economy and stubborn inflation. Expect fireworks in EUR/USD as traders gear up for a turbulent week!.
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices fell 2% on Monday as OPEC again lowered its outlook for 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth while China’s oil imports fell for the fifth straight month. China’s stimulus plans failed to inspire investor confidence while markets kept watching for potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure…
Gold:
Gold is steady supported by geopolitical tensions in the region. China on Monday carried out a day of “around-the-clock” drills around Taiwan, sending a record number of military aircraft and saying for the first time that it had deployed its coast guard to encircle the island. Tensions between China and Taiwan is a major factor driving current demand for gold.
Copper:
Copper prices dropped due to a lack of detail on China’s stimulus plans, deflationary pressures in the top consumer and a firm dollar, but higher Chinese imports of the industrial metal provided some support.
· India’s annual retail inflation accelerated to 5.49% in September from 3.65% a month ago, government data showed on Monday.
· India’s wholesale price index-based inflation rose to 1.84% in September on the back of higher food prices. The September print was lower than the 1.92% increase projected by economists in a Reuters poll and up from 1.31% in August, according to government data released on Monday.
· Consumer price index inflation grew 0.4% year-on-year in September, government data showed over the weekend. The reading was slower than expectations it would remain steady from the 0.6% seen in the prior month.
Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today
Japan
At 10.00am- Revised Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -3.3% from previous -3.3%.
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
At 11.30am— German WPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% vs -0.8%.
At 12.15pm- French Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -1.2% from previous -1.2%.
At 2.30pm-
German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 10.2 from previous 2.6.
Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.8% from previous -0.3%.
ZEW Economic Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 16.9 from previous 9.3.
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.
UK
At 11.30am—
Claimant Count Change. Data is foreseen at 20.2k from previous 23.7k.
Average Earnings Index 3m/y. Data is foreseen at 3.8% from previous 4%.
Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.1% from previous 4.1%.
Above data could have a positive impact on the pound.
Canada
At 6.00pm—
CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous -0.2%.
Median CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.3%
Trimmed CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.4% from previous 2.4%.
Wholesale Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at -1.1% from previous 0.4%.
Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
US
At 6.00pm- Empire State Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at 3.4 from previous 11.5.
At 9.00pm- FOMC Member Daly Speaks
At 10.30pm- FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Buy around 5865 Stop loss below 5850 Upside target look 5880–5895
Top Pick ( Friday Given USDCHF Buy around 0.85600 almost all target done )
NZDUSD
Buy around 0.60800 Stop loss below 0.60500 Upside target look 0.61100—0.61400
Switzerland’s Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in September, with a 1.3% year-on-year decline. While producer prices remained stable, import prices dropped 0.4%, driven by lower petroleum product costs, which plunged 7.6% monthly and 24.2% annually.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
In the week ahead, markets will focus on U.S. retail sales data and GDP for clues about economic strength and its implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions. The European Central Bank is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate cut, while China will release its Q3 growth figures. Oil prices are likely to stay volatile amid demand disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Here’s a quick look at the key events shaping the markets this week.
Key Data and Event scheduled this week – ECB Rate Decision, China GDP
US Data to watch
Markets will receive another key update on the health of the U.S. consumer on Thursday, as investors await retail sales data that could provide further insight into an economy proving to be more resilient than many had anticipated. The data is foreseen at 0.1% unchanged from the previous 0.1%.
Stronger-than-expected labor market data recently prompted investors to reassess expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will need to cut rates in the coming months. The weekly jobless claims data will weight on the currency. The data is foreseen at 241k from previous 258.
A robust retail sales report could further fuel this sentiment, offering additional evidence of strength in a critical sector of the world’s largest economy.
In addition, investors will have the opportunity to hear from several Federal Reserve officials in the coming days, including Governor Christopher Waller, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
European Center Bank policy decision
The ECB is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, a move that policymakers and market watchers had largely dismissed after the bank’s last meeting in September. The ECB is widely expected to cut rate on Thursday, with over 90% of economists polled predicting a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.25% after September’s inflation dipped below 2%; most expect another 25 bps cut in December. The tone of the monetary policy statement and press conference will be key for expectations.
The main refinancing rate is expected to cut buy 3.40% from 3.65% by exporters. That could weight on the currency.
However, signs of slowing economic growth and easing inflationary pressures have heightened the need for more aggressive rate cuts to support the eurozone’s economy.
Some analysts believe that Thursday’s cut could be the start of back-to-back rate reductions.
China Macroeconomic Release
China’s third-quarter GDP data, due on Friday, will be the highlight of a busy week of economic reports from the world’s second-largest economy. The data is foreseen at 4.6% from previous 4.7%.
Despite a weak second quarter and expectations of limited improvement in the third, policymakers remain confident in meeting their annual growth target of around 5%.
Investors may look past the pessimism, buoyed by Beijing’s recent aggressive stimulus measures, which pushed mainland stocks to new highs. While some of the initial optimism has faded, additional details on fiscal support could spark another market rally.
Along with GDP, China will release data on trade, Industrial production data is foreseen at 4.6% from previous 4.5%, and retail sales at 2.5% from previous 2.1%, offering policymakers a clearer view of the challenges heading into the year’s end.
UK Release
UK retail sales data, set to be released on Friday, will be another key economic indicator to watch. The data is expected to show a decline of -0.3%, down from the previous reading of 0.1%. Such a drop could heighten expectations of a potential rate cut by the Bank of England, as signs of slowing consumer activity may add to concerns about the UK economy’s outlook.
Japan Release
Monday is a holiday in Japan. The week’s main data releases are core machinery orders on Wednesday foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.1%, and the highlight will be September CPI inflation on Friday. The data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.8% That could weight on the Yen. BOJ board member Seiji Adachi will give a speech and news conference on Wednesday.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
“All that shines is not gold” is how the saying goes, but in the matter of Silver and Gold Price, they’ve changed things up.
Gold has been a beacon of hope for decades and centuries and the legacy seems to be continuing to this day as well.
Gold has been shining throughout the year and its recent performance from the lows to the rise in momentum upwards in September suggests that it’s an asset you can’t miss out on!
On the other hand, Silver has a few interesting stories to tell and isn’t far behind its cousin Gold either.
Not only does silver have significant monetary importance but it also stands out as an industrial metal with a wide range of applications. Silver’s presence in Jewelry, silverware and various other objects is notable but the price dynamics are largely influenced by industrial demand and also investment demand.
With a brief idea of this, let’s dive into the main crux of why silver and gold might be volatile in 2024. Read on as we uncover the secrets and hear a special message from our Founder and Head of Research, Mr. Ankit Kapoor.
Volatility Creating Factors in Gold Price and Silver Price:
Geopolitical Tensions: Fueling Market Uncertainty
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in sensitive regions like the Middle East, are significantly shaking up the global markets. Whenever there is political unrest or conflict, investors tend to seek refuge in safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. These precious metals are viewed as shields against the market’s unpredictability.
If we look at historical trends, geopolitical instability consistently leads to an increased demand for gold and silver. Prices tend to climb as investors flock to these assets, driving up their value in the market. This pattern is clear today, where ongoing tensions are causing sharp movements in metal prices.
Economic Factors: Inflation and Interest Rates
With inflation on the rise globally, investors are growing increasingly concerned about currency devaluation. To hedge against this risk, many are turning to gold and silver, which are historically known to maintain value even as fiat currencies decline. Central banks have been accumulating gold reserves, further boosting demand and, consequently, prices.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in 2024, which could weaken the dollar. In periods of a weaker dollar, non-yielding assets like gold tend to become more attractive to investors. This heightened appeal contributes to the upward pressure on the gold price.
Market Speculation:
Speculative trading plays a massive role in the daily movements of the gold price and silver price. Traders often react quickly to short-term market news, further amplifying volatility. This speculative nature can cause price swings in both directions, making the market more unpredictable.
The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is a powerful driver of market behavior. When prices start to rise, a wave of rapid buying often follows as traders and investors try to capitalize on the upward momentum. This rush to buy adds fuel to the already volatile market, pushing prices higher at a rapid pace.
Supply Chain Disruptions:
In addition to geopolitical and economic factors, supply chain disruptions are a critical aspect affecting the availability of physical gold and silver. Whether it’s due to conflicts, trade barriers, or economic downturns, these disruptions can lead to price spikes as supply becomes constrained.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed firsthand how fragile global supply chains can be. When supply chains were disrupted, demand for gold and silver quickly outpaced the available supply, leading to sharp price increases. Such vulnerabilities can still impact markets today.
A Perspective from Commodity Samachar:
The Gold price and Silver price trajectory is one that needs to be tracked this 2024 cause there is a lot of potential that traders could take advantage of. By staying informed, using hedging strategies, and carefully timing their trades, they can turn this volatility into profit while safeguarding their investments.
Watch Mr. Ankit Kapoor, Head of Research and Director of Commodity Samachar Securities explain about the situation of volatility in the country and also ways in which Traders can take advantage of this situation by checking out our video now!!
That’s all for today folks. We’ll be back with more interesting articles like this soon.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the language of the markets
