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9:00 PM
Integral US Crude Oil Inventories will be published this evening. The data displays the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. Previously at - 0.5 M, the forecast suggests an increase to 0.3 M.
The Forex newsletter for the day is here. DXY , XAUUSD , XAGUSD , COPPER , USOIL , NASDAQ , S&P 500 E-Mini , USDCHF, Dollar
DXY
(Yesterday given Buy around 103.350 first target done)
Buy around 104.900 Stop loss below 104.600 Target 105.200–105.500
XAUUSD
(Yesterday given Sell on rise around 2748 all target done)
Sell around 2700 Stop loss above 2720 Target 2680–2660
XAGUSD
Sell around 32.00 Stop loss above 32.40 Target 31.60–31.20
USOIL
(Yesterday given Buy around 71.50 first target done)
Sell around 71.00 Stop loss above 71.50 Target 70.50–70.00
COPPER (HG1)
(Yesterday givenSell around 4.4700 all target done)
Buy around 4.3200 Stop loss below 4.2890 Target 4.3500–4.3800
NASDAQ
(Yesterday givenBuy around 20150 all target done)
Buy around 20600 Stop loss above 20450 Target 20750–20900
S&P 500 E-Mini
(Yesterday given Buy around 5755 all target done)
Buy around 5930 Stop loss below 5900 Target 5960–5990
Top Pick
GBPUSD
Sell below 1.28600 Stop loss above 1.29000 Target 1.28200–1.27800
Forex Newsletter – Donald Trump has secured a second term as U.S. president, defeating Kamala Harris in a close race. His victory, along with Republican control of Congress, triggered a market rally. The U.S. dollar soared, Bitcoin hit record highs, and Treasury yields spiked, reflecting investor optimism on Trump’s policies.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
Copper prices gained over half percent yesterday on a softer dollar as traders balanced their positions ahead of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and on stimulus cues from top metals buyer China.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) CMCU3was up 0.3% to $9,724 per metric ton during official rings. It touched $9,774 earlier for the highest price since Oct. 14.
Volumes are relatively thin for the base metals complex as investors brace for volatility in the coming few sessions until a clear winner of the U.S. election is declared.
The U.S. currency weakened DXY this week after a weekend opinion poll showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a surprise lead in Iowa, a traditional Republican stronghold.
Dollar traders had priced in a victory for Republican former President Donald Trump, whose tariff and immigration policies analysts say are more inflationary. Last week the dollar index surged to a three-month high at 104.63.
A weaker dollar makes the greenback-priced metals cheaper for holders of foreign currencies, and typically provides support to metal prices.
But the market remained cautious over a potential second term for Trump, who could reintroduce tariffs that threaten to dampen global base metals trading activity like in 2019.
Back then, the Sino-U.S. trade war caused major diversion of copper and aluminium scrap shipments, disrupting trade flows of secondary material.
China is more prepared for the headwinds this time. According to Reuters, China is considering approving an extra stimulus package to save the economy if Trump wins. A meeting this week of the standing committee of China’s National People’s Congress will shed more light on the stimulus measures.
In other metals trading, zinc rose 1.2% to $3,071 a ton. A South Korean court upheld an order to suspend Young Poong’s 00670.KS Seokpo zinc smelter, the world’s sixth-largest, due to improper waste water discharge, the operator said.
Furthermore, China’s yuan slipped on Tuesday, retreating from a three-week high against the dollar hit a day earlier, as some investors rushed to book profit amid uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election. Markets were also anxiously awaiting outcomes of the Federal Reserve rate decision and a meeting of China’s top legislative body this week.
Voting starts later today, but it could be Thursday or Friday Asia time before we have more of an idea of who will likely emerge as the winner of this very tightly contested election, that could impact to the metals prices.
Technical Outlook – Copper Futures
Copper prices gained nearly 1% yesterday, reaching a high of 861.30 and settling at 859.55, up from the previous close of 852.70. Since October 29, prices have climbed over 3% from a low of 833, forming a strong bullish candle indicating near-term buying interest.
A breakout above multi-week resistance at 865.00 could open the door to 870-878 levels.
Failure to break could see prices retrace to 850-845. Expect big swings as U.S. election polls, along with upcoming China, Fed, and BOE policy meetings, add volatility.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
US election polls will keep volatility high today.
FX Update
The dollar index jumped above 104 mark again, up 0.72% in Early Asian Trade today, as first polls close in US presidential race.
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell as U.S. voters headed to the polls on Tuesday, with the results of the us election is likely to decide at least the near-term fate of the greenback.
Polls show a tight race between Republican former president Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and the most extreme currency moves will occur if the party of the new president also wins control of Congress.
Traders have pared back bets that Trump will win the presidency in recent days, in part due to some polls showing rising odds of a Harris victory. Election betting sites including PredictIt and Polymarket show Trump as the favorite though his probability of victory has declined..
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices gained nearly half percent on a decision by OPEC+ to delay by a month plans to increase output, while the market braced for a crucial week that includes the U.S. presidential election and a key meeting in China.
Gold:
Gold prices edged up as investors braced for political tensions after opinion polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the U.S. presidential election where chances of a contested result are high. Gold is supported by “the uncertainty of the elections. Part of it is what happens if things don’t go so smooth, part of it is the possibility of tariffs, some kind of economic change.
Copper:
Copper prices rose to a 22-day high on a softer dollar as traders balanced their positions ahead of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and on stimulus cues from top metals buyer China.
The US Elections 2024 is in the spotlight and as the whole world looks upon the most controversial and crucial of Presidential Elections, traders and investors are left to wonder what to do in the Commodities Market?
As the US Elections 2024 conclude, the spotlight is now on the far-reaching consequences for global markets. Commodity markets, in particular, are bracing for potential shifts as policies from the incoming administration could redefine trade dynamics, fiscal priorities, and environmental commitments. Here’s a breakdown of the possible paths forward, and how they might impact key commodities.
With the US Elections 2024 reaching its final stage, volatility in the commodities market is only set to intensify. From trade policies to infrastructure investment, each party’s stance could reshape market conditions, as investors await the first signals of change. Over the coming weeks, expect traders to adjust positions in anticipation of these moves—every policy hint and statement adds momentum to an already charged atmosphere.
A Kamala Harris Win in US Elections 2024: Driving Growth in Green Tech and Infrastructure
Climate Change and Renewable Energy: Key Metals in Focus
If Kamala Harris wins, her administration’s focus on tackling climate change would likely boost the demand for metals central to green technologies, including copper, lithium, and cobalt. Lithium, essential for EV batteries, could see demand spike with increased electric vehicle production and renewable energy storage initiatives. Conversely, fossil fuels may face regulatory challenges as a Harris administration would likely tighten restrictions on coal and oil to align with environmental targets.
Infrastructure Spending to Lift Industrial Metals
Harris’s infrastructure agenda is anticipated to revitalize demand for metals like steel, copper, and aluminum. Projects centered on roads, bridges, and transit networks could lead to a substantial uptick in steel and copper requirements, benefiting these sectors well into 2024. Industrial metal producers could see a boost in pricing as projects ramp up, setting the stage for a strong year in industrial commodities.
Agricultural Commodities and Shifts in Trade Policy
On the trade front, Harris’s policies may introduce new dynamics for agricultural exports, including corn, wheat, and soybeans. Tighter environmental regulations or subsidies could influence crop production and pricing. For instance, stricter fertilizer standards may impact yields, which could send ripples through the broader agricultural market. Policy changes in trade agreements or tariffs could further adjust the landscape, with the potential for pricing shifts in staple crops.
A Trump Re-Election: Boost for Traditional Energy and Domestic Production
Fossil Fuels to Gain Support
Under a Trump administration, the focus would likely shift toward bolstering fossil fuels. By promoting deregulation and backing domestic production of oil, gas, and coal, Trump’s policies could lead to increased supply and potential price stabilization in domestic markets. This would bolster fossil fuels but might dampen growth in renewables, impacting demand for metals tied to green technology advancements.
Mining and Infrastructure: Deregulation at the Forefront
Trump’s stance on deregulation could ease restrictions on mining, increasing the availability of metals essential for industrial use. Infrastructure spending plans under his administration may also drive demand for metals like steel and copper, especially if mining ramps up production to meet increased needs. With fewer regulatory hurdles, mining and metals industries could capitalize on this surge, positioning them for growth in the years ahead.
Agricultural Commodities and Global Trade Shifts
Trump’s trade approach, particularly with China, could shape commodity flows in agriculture, impacting prices for key exports like corn and soybeans. Adjustments to tariffs or biofuel mandates may also affect crop prices. For instance, a positive stance on biofuels could drive higher demand for corn in ethanol production, creating ripple effects across the market.
Precious Metals: A Safe Haven Amid Uncertainty?
Election years and geopolitical uncertainties typically push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and silver. A weaker U.S. dollar could further enhance this trend, making precious metals more attractive to global buyers. If the election outcome prolongs uncertainty, a rush to safe-haven assets could keep demand high, with gold and silver continuing to shine.
The U.S. dollar might experience fluctuations depending on the election results, which directly influences the prices of these metals, particularly gold. Gold prices tend to go up when the dollar weakens, as gold becomes cheaper for international buyers. So, any instability or prolonged election disputes could create favorable conditions for precious metals to rise.
With potentially sweeping fiscal and monetary policies on the horizon, gold might continue to serve as a “safe haven” as markets recalibrate post-election. The extent of the movement could depend heavily on the perceived economic stability of the new administration.
The Dollar and Global Commodity Pricing
One of the most impactful outcomes of the US Elections 2024 will be on the U.S. dollar, with both election scenarios potentially influencing its strength. A strong dollar generally increases the cost of U.S. commodities globally, possibly curtailing demand, while a weaker dollar tends to boost exports as they become more affordable. As both parties could initially weaken the dollar with fiscal and monetary moves, this will play a key role in shaping global commodity prices.
Both election outcomes could influence the strength of the US dollar, directly affecting commodity prices worldwide. A strong dollar makes commodities pricier globally, while a weaker dollar often boosts demand for U.S. exports.
Initial policies from the winning candidate will shape the dollar’s direction, and consequently, the pricing and demand for key commodities. Gold prices tend to go up when the dollar weakens, as gold becomes cheaper for international buyers. So, any instability or prolonged election disputes could create favorable conditions for precious metals to rise.
The US dollar will fluctuate more in the election period which can impact global currency exchanges and international trade. The Fed directions influenced by the new Governing would create changes in the already existing system. It could impact global interest rates and also inflations, affecting borrowing costs and investment flows worldwide.
US Elections 2024 – A Perspective from Commodity Samachar:
With everyone eagerly anticipating the results of the US elections and also worrying about what moves to make in the Commodities markets, we’ve got a solution for you. Commodity Samachar’s Research Team got together in a live session talking about the intricacies of the Commodities market and talking about how the election could impact it.
What’s the consensus on gold, silver, crude oil, the Dollar Index and a lot more have been covered in this segment. Click on the link below and find out all about the interesting news now.
That’s all for today folks. We’ll be back with more blogs soon.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
The Indian rupee touched its weakest level on record on Monday, as persistent outflows from local stocks blunted the impact of a weaker dollar that helped lift the currency’s regional peers ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
The rupee closed at 84.1150 against the U.S. dollar after touching its all-time low of 84.1225.
The benchmarks are down about 8% from their respective record highs hit in late September, hurt by the exodus of foreign investors amid a tepid earnings season.
Although, Routine interventions by the Reserve Bank of India, such as on Monday, have helped the rupee avoid sharp declines despite pressure from chunky outflows from local stocks and elevated US bond yields.
The Reserve Bank of India is well-equipped to deal with a rise in market volatility and pressure on the rupee if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins next week’s U.S. presidential election, two sources familiar with the bank’s thinking told Reuters last week.
The dollar index was down about 0.2% on Monday at 103.7 while most Asian currencies rose, with the offshore Chinese yuan rising to a near three-week high of 7.08.
The greenback was likely weighed down by unwinding of long positions in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election results.
A Republican clean sweep can send the dollar higher, but probably by less than how much a Harris win could hit USD. The dollar might not rally at all if Trump wins but Democrats secure the (U.S. House of Representatives.
Investors are also bracing for some uncertainty as the winner of the U.S. presidential race might not be known for days after voting ends.
Today is the day of the US Election, the competition between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is heating up, especially in vital swing states. Both candidates are making final pushes in what is shaping up to be a tightly contested presidential race.
Approximately 244 million people are eligible to vote in the upcoming US presidential election on 5 November. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. in most states, although times may vary. In 2020, about two-thirds of these eligible voters participated. The outcome of the next presidential election will hinge less on the national voter turnout and more on a few thousand voters in key battleground or swing states.
Technical Outlook – U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
The USD/INR pair touched an all-time high of 84.12 yesterday, closing with a modest gain of 4 paisa, even as the US dollar retreated significantly.
In the chart, the pair is struggling to close above the immediate resistance at 84.14, forming a cluster of indecisive candlestick patterns. The RSI (14) and its 9-day SMA are trading around the 60 level, suggesting that any rise toward the 84.18–84.25 zone may face selling pressure, potentially driving the pair back down toward support levels at 84.09–83.98.
Looking ahead, the upcoming US election, along with key policy meetings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, is expected to fuel volatility in the market this week.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
The Forex newsletter for the day is here. DXY , XAUUSD , XAGUSD , COPPER , USOIL , NASDAQ , S&P 500 E-Mini , USDCHF, Dollar
DXY
Buy around 103.350 Stop loss below 103.200 Target 103.450–103.600
XAUUSD
(Yesterday given Buy on dip around 2735 first target done)
Sell on rise around 2748 Stop loss above 2760 Target 2738–2728
XAGUSD
Buy on dip around 32.40 Stop loss below 32.10 Target 32.70–33.00
USOIL
(Yesterday given Buy around 71.30 first target done)
Buy around 71.50 Stop loss below 71.00 target 72.00–72.50
COPPER (HG1)
Sell around 4.4700 Stop loss above 4.5000 Target 4.4400–4.4100
NASDAQ
(Yesterday given Buy around 20100 first target done)
Buy around 20150 Stop loss below 20040 Target 20250–20350
S&P 500 E-Mini
(Yesterday given Buy around 5755 first target almost done)
Buy around 5755 Stop loss below 2739 Target 5770–5785
Top Pick
GBPUSD
Sell around 1.29900 Stop loss above 1.30100 Target 1.29700–1.29500
Forex Newsletter – With Election Day underway, the US presidential race remains neck-and-neck between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, fueling market uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring the results, with potential policy shifts impacting sectors like oil, tech, and finance. Meanwhile, Boeing workers vote to end a lengthy strike.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities We Decode the Language of the Markets
