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  • 11:30 AM
  • Crucial UK Claimant Count Change will be published today. The data displays the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits during the previous month. Previously at 3.7 K, the forecast suggest a decrease to 20.2 K.
  • 6:00 PM
  • Integral US Empire State Manufacturing Index will be published this evening. The data displays the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York State. Previously at 11.5, the forecast suggests a decrease to 3.4.
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  • 9479799998

Forex Focus: Yuan Swings as US Elections, Tariffs Loom

Forex Focus: Yuan Swings as US Elections, Tariffs Loom

The Forex newsletter for the day is here. DXY , XAUUSD , XAGUSD , COPPER , USOIL , NASDAQ , S&P 500 E-Mini , USDCHF….

DXY

( Yesterday given Buy around 102.700 first target done)

Sell around 102.800
Stop loss above 103.00
Downside target 102.600—102.400

XAUUSD

( Yesterday given buy around 2650 first target done)

buy around 2645
Stop loss below 2635
Upside Target look 2655–2665

XAGUSD

( Yesterday given Sell around 31.35 all target done)

Buy around 31.20
Stop loss below 30.90
Upside target look 31.50—31.80

COPPER (HG1)

( Yesterday given Sell on rise around 4.4500 all target done)

Sell on rise around 4.3800
Stop loss above 4.4100
downside target look 4.3500—-4.3300

USOIL

Sell below 70.00
Stop loss above 72.00
Downside target look 69.00–68.00

NASDAQ

( Yesterday given Buy above 20550 First target done)

Sell around 20600
Stop loss above 20680
Downside target look 20520—50460

S&P 500 E-Mini

Sell around 5900
Stop loss above 5920
Downside target look 5880–5860

Top Pick

NZDUSD

( Yesterday Given NZDUSD Buy around 0.60800 almost first target done )

Buy around 0.60800
Stop loss below 0.60500
Upside target look 0.61100—0.61400

Traders are preparing for increased yuan fluctuations as the US elections approach, with fears of new tariffs under a potential Trump presidency. Implied volatility in dollar-yuan pairs surged, reflecting concerns over potential impacts on Chinese exports and broader currency markets.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Economic News: Germany WPI and Canada’s CPI in Focus Today , Focus Copper Price Dip: Will Key Support Break or Hold Firm?

Recommended Read: Trader’s Guide: Could You Profit from 2024’s Silver and Gold Price Fluctuations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Focus Copper Price Dip: Will Key Support Break or Hold Firm?

Focus Copper Price Dip: Will Key Support Break or Hold Firm?

Copper prices dropped over one and half percent on Monday, driven by uncertainty surrounding China’s stimulus plans, deflationary pressures in the world’s largest consumer, and a stronger dollar. Despite the downturn, higher Chinese imports of copper provided some support to the market.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined 1.3%, trading at $9,660 per metric ton. Contributing to demand concerns were lower-than-expected new bank lending figures from China and slowing growth in total social financing. These factors, along with deepening producer price deflation, underscore the urgent need for China to implement more robust stimulus measures to stimulate demand and economic recovery.

Although China pledged over the weekend to “significantly increase” its debt to boost growth, the absence of a specified financial package, including for the property sector, left markets unimpressed. Edward Meir, a consultant at Marex, noted, “The selloff in base metals is largely due to general disappointment with the lack of details in China’s stimulus program.” While China’s finance minister indicated that the government had room to expand its deficit and issue more debt, the failure to quantify the stimulus size dampened market sentiment.

The firm US dollar added further pressure, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thus limiting demand.

On a positive note, China’s unwrought copper imports in September surged to 479,000 tons, a 15.4% increase from August. This rise reflects improving seasonal demand and a healthier outlook for copper consumption. Additionally, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 156,485 tons, a reduction of over 50% since June, indicating firm demand for the metal used in key sectors such as power and construction.

Overall, the market’s mood soured as China’s export growth, a key driver of its economy, slowed in September, raising concerns that manufacturers are reducing prices to clear inventories ahead of new tariffs from several trade partners.

Technical Outlook – Copper Futures

Copper prices reversed from the session high of 839 and closed at 825.40, marking a 1.75% decline from the previous day’s close of 840.10.

 The formation of a long bearish candlestick on the chart signals mounting short-term selling pressure. However, a decisive break below the immediate support at 819.20 would be required to target the next support levels at 815-812.50.

Alternatively, any upward move toward 828-830 is likely to encounter selling pressure in the near term. On the upside, resistance is identified at 845.00, with a break above this level potentially leading to a recovery toward 852-855.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Economic News: Germany WPI and Canada’s CPI in Focus Today , ECB Rate Decision, China GDP: Key Focus This Week

Recommended Read: Trader’s Guide: Could You Profit from 2024’s Silver and Gold Price Fluctuations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Economic News: Germany WPI and Canada’s CPI in Focus Today

Economic News: Germany WPI and Canada's CPI in Focus Today

Today’s economic news looks quite interesting.

Dollar Index  

The Dollar Index flexed its muscles on Monday, surging to a two-month high as haven currencies took a backseat, U.S. shares rallied, and traders braced for a packed week of data and corporate earnings. With the Federal Reserve signaling a dovish stance, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted that more rate cuts could be on the horizon as inflation inches toward the Fed’s 2% target.

On the other hand, the Euro is feeling the heat, slipping ahead of Tuesday’s data dump and Thursday’s much-anticipated 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). All eyes are on the ECB to see how they’ll juggle a slowing economy and stubborn inflation. Expect fireworks in EUR/USD as traders gear up for a turbulent week!.

 Crude Oil:

Crude Oil prices fell 2% on Monday as OPEC again lowered its outlook for 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth while China’s oil imports fell for the fifth straight month. China’s stimulus plans failed to inspire investor confidence while markets kept watching for potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure…

Gold:

Gold is steady supported by geopolitical tensions in the region. China on Monday carried out a day of “around-the-clock” drills around Taiwan, sending a record number of military aircraft and saying for the first time that it had deployed its coast guard to encircle the island. Tensions between China and Taiwan is a major factor driving current demand for gold.

Copper:

Copper prices dropped due to a lack of detail on China’s stimulus plans, deflationary pressures in the top consumer and a firm dollar, but higher Chinese imports of the industrial metal provided some support.

 Prices action (MCX)

Gold 76046 (-0.34%), Silver 90736 (-1.04%), Copper 825.40(-1.75%) Crude Oil 6245 (-1.8%) Natural gas 210.90 (-5.13%)

Yesterday Data and Event Update –

·         India’s annual retail inflation accelerated to 5.49% in September from 3.65% a month ago, government data showed on Monday.

·         India’s wholesale price index-based inflation rose to 1.84% in September on the back of higher food prices. The September print was lower than the 1.92% increase projected by economists in a Reuters poll and up from 1.31% in August, according to government data released on Monday.

·         Consumer price index inflation grew 0.4% year-on-year in September, government data showed over the weekend. The reading was slower than expectations it would remain steady from the 0.6% seen in the prior month.

Major Economic News, Data and Event scheduled today

Japan

At 10.00am- Revised Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -3.3% from previous -3.3%.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yen.

Eurozone

At 11.30am— German WPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% vs -0.8%.

At 12.15pm- French Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -1.2% from previous -1.2%.

At 2.30pm-

German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 10.2 from previous 2.6.

Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.8% from previous -0.3%.

ZEW Economic Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 16.9 from previous 9.3.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the Euro.     

UK

At 11.30am—

Claimant Count Change. Data is foreseen at 20.2k from previous  23.7k.

Average Earnings Index 3m/y. Data is foreseen at 3.8% from previous 4%.

Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.1% from previous 4.1%.

Above data could have a positive impact on the pound.

Canada

At 6.00pm—

CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous -0.2%.

Median CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.3%

Trimmed CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.4% from previous 2.4%.

Wholesale Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at -1.1% from previous 0.4%.

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

US

At 6.00pm- Empire State Manufacturing Index. Data is foreseen at 3.4 from previous 11.5.

At 9.00pm- FOMC Member Daly Speaks

At 10.30pm- FOMC Member Kugler Speaks

Above mentioned economic news and data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Swiss Forex: Producer & Import Prices See Slight Sept Drop

Recommended Read: Trader’s Guide: Could You Profit from 2024’s Silver and Gold Price Fluctuations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Swiss Forex: Producer & Import Prices See Slight Sept Drop

Swiss Forex: Producer & Import Prices See Slight Sept Drop

The Forex newsletter for the day is here. DXY , XAUUSD , XAGUSD , COPPER , USOIL , NASDAQ , S&P 500 E-Mini , USDCHF….

DXY

( Friday given sell on rise around 102.650 All target done)

Buy around 102.700
Stop below 102.500
Upside target look 102.900—103.100

XAUUSD

buy around 2650
Stop loss below 2640
Upside Target look 2660–2670

XAGUSD

( Friday given Buy around 31.00 Almost All target done)

Sell around 31.35
Stop loss above 31. 65
Downside target look 31.05—30.80

COPPER (HG1)

( Friday given Buy on dip around 4.4400 first target done)

Sell on rise around 4.4500
Stop loss above 4.5000
downside target look 4.4000—-4.3600

USOIL

( Friday given Buy around 75.00 first target done)

Buy above 74.00
Stop loss below 73.00
Upside target look 75.00–76.00

NASDAQ

Buy above 20550
Upside target look 20650–20750
Stop loss below 20450

S&P 500 E-Mini

Buy around 5865
Stop loss below 5850
Upside target look 5880–5895

Top Pick ( Friday Given USDCHF Buy around 0.85600 almost all target done )

NZDUSD

Buy around 0.60800
Stop loss below 0.60500
Upside target look 0.61100—0.61400

Switzerland’s Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in September, with a 1.3% year-on-year decline. While producer prices remained stable, import prices dropped 0.4%, driven by lower petroleum product costs, which plunged 7.6% monthly and 24.2% annually.

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: ECB Rate Decision, China GDP: Key Focus This Week Rupee Falls Below 84: Will It Drop Further or Rebound?

Recommended Read: Trader’s Guide: Could You Profit from 2024’s Silver and Gold Price Fluctuations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

ECB Rate Decision, China GDP: Key Focus This Week

ECB Rate Decision, China GDP: Key Focus This Week

In the week ahead, markets will focus on U.S. retail sales data and GDP for clues about economic strength and its implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions. The European Central Bank is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate cut, while China will release its Q3 growth figures. Oil prices are likely to stay volatile amid demand disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Here’s a quick look at the key events shaping the markets this week.

Key Data and Event scheduled this week – ECB Rate Decision, China GDP

US Data to watch

Markets will receive another key update on the health of the U.S. consumer on Thursday, as investors await retail sales data that could provide further insight into an economy proving to be more resilient than many had anticipated. The data is foreseen at 0.1% unchanged from the previous 0.1%.

Stronger-than-expected labor market data recently prompted investors to reassess expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will need to cut rates in the coming months. The weekly jobless claims data will weight on the currency. The data is foreseen at 241k from previous 258.

A robust retail sales report could further fuel this sentiment, offering additional evidence of strength in a critical sector of the world’s largest economy.

In addition, investors will have the opportunity to hear from several Federal Reserve officials in the coming days, including Governor Christopher Waller, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

European Center Bank policy decision

The ECB is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, a move that policymakers and market watchers had largely dismissed after the bank’s last meeting in September. The ECB is widely expected to  cut rate on Thursday, with over 90% of economists polled predicting a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.25% after September’s inflation dipped below 2%; most expect another 25 bps cut in December. The tone of the monetary policy statement and press conference will be key for expectations.

The main refinancing rate is expected to cut buy 3.40% from 3.65% by exporters. That could weight on the currency.

However, signs of slowing economic growth and easing inflationary pressures have heightened the need for more aggressive rate cuts to support the eurozone’s economy.

Some analysts believe that Thursday’s cut could be the start of back-to-back rate reductions.

China Macroeconomic Release

China’s third-quarter GDP data, due on Friday, will be the highlight of a busy week of economic reports from the world’s second-largest economy. The data is foreseen at 4.6% from previous 4.7%.

Despite a weak second quarter and expectations of limited improvement in the third, policymakers remain confident in meeting their annual growth target of around 5%.

Investors may look past the pessimism, buoyed by Beijing’s recent aggressive stimulus measures, which pushed mainland stocks to new highs. While some of the initial optimism has faded, additional details on fiscal support could spark another market rally.

Along with GDP, China will release data on trade, Industrial production data is foreseen at 4.6% from previous 4.5%, and retail sales at 2.5% from previous 2.1%, offering policymakers a clearer view of the challenges heading into the year’s end.

UK Release

UK retail sales data, set to be released on Friday, will be another key economic indicator to watch. The data is expected to show a decline of -0.3%, down from the previous reading of 0.1%. Such a drop could heighten expectations of a potential rate cut by the Bank of England, as signs of slowing consumer activity may add to concerns about the UK economy’s outlook.

Japan Release 

Monday is a holiday in Japan. The week’s main data releases are core machinery orders on Wednesday foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.1%, and the highlight will be September CPI inflation on Friday. The data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.8% That could weight on the Yen. BOJ board member Seiji Adachi will give a speech and news conference on Wednesday.  

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

Also Read: Rupee Falls Below 84: Will It Drop Further or Rebound? , Will the Gold price rebound from two week low or not?

Recommended Read: Trader’s Guide: Could You Profit from 2024’s Silver and Gold Price Fluctuations?

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Trader’s Guide: Could You Profit from 2024’s Silver and Gold Price Fluctuations?

“All that shines is not gold” is how the saying goes, but in the matter of Silver and Gold Price, they’ve changed things up. 

Gold has been a beacon of hope for decades and centuries and the legacy seems to be continuing to this day as well.

Gold has been shining throughout the year and its recent performance from the lows to the rise in momentum upwards in September suggests that it’s an asset you can’t miss out on!

On the other hand, Silver has a few interesting stories to tell and isn’t far behind its cousin Gold either. 

Not only does silver have significant monetary importance but it also stands out as an industrial metal with a wide range of applications. Silver’s presence in Jewelry, silverware and various other objects is notable but the price dynamics are largely influenced by industrial demand and also investment demand. 

With a brief idea of this, let’s dive into the main crux of why silver and gold might be volatile in 2024. Read on as we uncover the secrets and hear a special message from our Founder and Head of Research, Mr. Ankit Kapoor. 

Volatility Creating Factors in Gold Price and Silver Price: 

  1. Geopolitical Tensions: Fueling Market Uncertainty

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in sensitive regions like the Middle East, are significantly shaking up the global markets. Whenever there is political unrest or conflict, investors tend to seek refuge in safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. These precious metals are viewed as shields against the market’s unpredictability.

If we look at historical trends, geopolitical instability consistently leads to an increased demand for gold and silver. Prices tend to climb as investors flock to these assets, driving up their value in the market. This pattern is clear today, where ongoing tensions are causing sharp movements in metal prices.

  1. Economic Factors: Inflation and Interest Rates

With inflation on the rise globally, investors are growing increasingly concerned about currency devaluation. To hedge against this risk, many are turning to gold and silver, which are historically known to maintain value even as fiat currencies decline. Central banks have been accumulating gold reserves, further boosting demand and, consequently, prices.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in 2024, which could weaken the dollar. In periods of a weaker dollar, non-yielding assets like gold tend to become more attractive to investors. This heightened appeal contributes to the upward pressure on the gold price.

  1. Market Speculation: 

Speculative trading plays a massive role in the daily movements of the gold price and silver price. Traders often react quickly to short-term market news, further amplifying volatility. This speculative nature can cause price swings in both directions, making the market more unpredictable.

The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is a powerful driver of market behavior. When prices start to rise, a wave of rapid buying often follows as traders and investors try to capitalize on the upward momentum. This rush to buy adds fuel to the already volatile market, pushing prices higher at a rapid pace.

  1. Supply Chain Disruptions: 

In addition to geopolitical and economic factors, supply chain disruptions are a critical aspect affecting the availability of physical gold and silver. Whether it’s due to conflicts, trade barriers, or economic downturns, these disruptions can lead to price spikes as supply becomes constrained.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed firsthand how fragile global supply chains can be. When supply chains were disrupted, demand for gold and silver quickly outpaced the available supply, leading to sharp price increases. Such vulnerabilities can still impact markets today.

A Perspective from Commodity Samachar:

The Gold price and Silver price trajectory is one that needs to be tracked this 2024 cause there is a lot of potential that traders could take advantage of. By staying informed, using hedging strategies, and carefully timing their trades, they can turn this volatility into profit while safeguarding their investments.

Watch Mr. Ankit Kapoor, Head of Research and Director of Commodity Samachar Securities explain about the situation of volatility in the country and also ways in which Traders can take advantage of this situation by checking out our video now!!

That’s all for today folks. We’ll be back with more interesting articles like this soon. 

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the language of the markets

Also Read: Rupee Falls Below 84: Will It Drop Further or Rebound?

Recommended Read: Breaking Down 5 Technical Analysis Myths: Let’s Get the Facts Straight!

Want Help On Your Trades ?

Chat with RM

Announcements

                                                         
DataTimeForecastPrevious
Chicago PMI7:15 PM46.146.1
LME MetalChange
COPPER-1925
ALUMINUM-2500
IndexPCRMaximum Pain
Nifty0.8325950
Bank Nifty0.6252300
InstitutionCash
FII-1200
DII6887