
On January 20, 2025, Crude oil price remained relatively unchanged as markets awaited clarity on President-elect Donald Trump’s energy strategies and his stance on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Brent crude futures saw a modest drop of 37 cents, closing at $80.42 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by 24 cents to $77.64 per barrel. The March WTI contract, which is more actively traded, declined by 36 cents to $77.03.

Investors are closely monitoring the incoming administration’s potential executive actions, particularly regarding the relaxation of energy sanctions on Russia. Speculation surrounds whether such measures could be offered in exchange for a resolution to the war in Ukraine—a move that could substantially alter the global oil market. Last week, Brent and WTI benchmarks experienced gains exceeding 1%, driven by new sanctions from the Biden administration targeting Russian oil companies and tankers. These sanctions triggered a surge in oil purchases from countries like China and India.
Market attention is also focused on the possibility of Trump lifting the moratorium on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses. Such a policy shift could strengthen the U.S. economy while reshaping global energy markets by increasing American LNG exports.
Despite recent price increases, concerns linger over their sustainability, particularly if Trump’s policies result in an oversupply of U.S. crude without proportional growth in exports. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict Brent prices will average between $70 and $85 per barrel due to stable demand and constrained global supply. However, they caution that WTI may trail behind due to rising U.S. production levels.
In addition, easing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to price stability. A recent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, involving the exchange of hostages and prisoners, has marked a turning point after 15 months of conflict, reducing fears of supply interruptions in the region.
Trump’s return to the presidency is expected to bring a renewed focus on U.S. “energy independence,” likely through deregulation and expanded drilling initiatives. While such measures could reinforce the U.S.’s position as a global energy leader, they might also create localized crude surpluses, exerting downward pressure on WTI prices compared to Brent.
As the markets await Trump’s inaugural address, uncertainty persists about his approach to Russian sanctions and broader geopolitical issues. Brent prices could rise above $85 per barrel if geopolitical tensions remain elevated, while WTI prices may experience more restrained growth due to increased domestic output.
Technical Outlook: Crude oil Price

Crude oil price faced renewed selling pressure, accompanied by a sharp 79.71% increase in open interest, rising to 8,824 contracts. Key support is observed at ₹6,660, with potential for further declines toward ₹6,620. On the upside, resistance is expected at ₹6,740, and a breakout above this level could pave the way for a test of ₹6,850.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
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