Market Forecast This Week: US and Eurozone Data – In Sync with Market Predictions?

The market forecast this week is quite interesting as OPEC+ meeting looms in the corner will the US and Eurozone data incoming this week be the game changer?

Let’s dive in and find out!!

Monday – New Home Sales

The weekly economic calendar will be ECB President Lagarde Speaks and New Home Sales data.

The Market forecast this week as per the US homes reading is expected to be quite negative for the dollar, as it’s predicted at 724k from the previous 759K.                                          

Tuesday – CB Consumer Confidence

The market will react strongly on US CB Consumer confidence index data for November. October’s reading showed a third straight monthly decline. 

The market forecast this week is foreseen at 101.0 from previous reading 102.60, which could give negative insight for the dollar.

Wednesday – Eurozone Inflation, US GDP Numbers

The German Prelim CPI m/m will be set to release, data is expected to contract by 0.1% against 0.0%. While, Spanish Flash CPI y/y expected to increase by 3.7% from 3.5%. Both numbers could trigger volatility in the Euro.

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday that the risks to the European economic outlook are tilted to the downside. De Guindos further stated that inflation could go up again in the next months, but that maintaining the current interest rate for longer could keep inflation under control

From the US front, Prelim GDP q/q numbers are set to release with modest growth by 5.0% from the previous 4.9%.

Thursday –US Core PCE Number

The Eurozone is to publish inflation data on Thursday that is expected to indicate price pressures controlling again in November.

Consumer price inflation is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.7%, cooling slightly from 2.9% the previous month. Underlying inflation is expected to slow to 3.9%.

In the previous week, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that borrowing costs will need to stay restrictive for longer.

Inflation is only forecast to return to the ECB’s target of 2% in the second half of 2025.

US Core PCE price index set to release which could have a strong impact on the market. These numbers will be closely examined for insights into inflation trends and their potential implications for monetary policy decisions.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is expected to have risen 0.2% in November from the previous month of 0.3%.

Furthermore, China is to release official purchasing manager indexes for November, the focus will shift for any signs of a recovery in the world’s second largest economy. The number is foreseen at 49.6 slightly improvement from the previous month’s 49.5.

China’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected 4.9% in the third quarter, But Beijing still faces an uphill battle to achieve its annual growth target of around 5%.

Friday – Speech by Fed and ECB Head

Macroeconomic numbers from Japan are set to release, including Unemployment Rate and Final Manufacturing PMI. Both numbers might have a neutral impact as the market forecast this week is foreseen almost unchanged from the previous 2.6% and 48.10% respectively.

Furthermore, Eurozone, Spain, French, German PMI and US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be due on the same day. The market will find trading opportunities in the Eur currency.

ECB President Lagarde Speaks and Fed Chair Powell Speaks will drive the sentiment.

OPEC Meeting

Apart from the scheduled economic calendar, The OPEC+ group, composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, surprised the market last Wednesday by delaying its scheduled November 26 meeting to November 30 after producers struggled to reach a consensus on output levels.

Commodity Samachar
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