Anticipating Shifts in Opec Crude Oil Prices – What to Expect?

OPEC+ Meeting Anticipation: Should you expect crude oil price volatility this week? 

Are you afraid that oil prices might just skyrocket? Well, your fears might just become a reality again!!

As we prepare for the OPEC meeting that’s going to take place soon on November 30th, crude oil has been fluctuating drastically because of potential deeper cuts by OPEC nations and also the uncertainties surrounding the decisions. 

So here’s a set of new developments you should know before getting into the mindset of crude oil developments!!

Let’s begin. 

The OPEC+ Meeting – Schedules and Postponements: 

As per reports from the OPEC+ organization they are considering the possibility of more deeper oil cuts. 

A massive drop of 20% in crude was witnessed in September when OPEC+ said that they are set to consider whether to make an additional oil supply cut when the group meets later this 26th, November i.e.; Sunday which has now further been postponed to 30/11/2023, Thursday. 

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged total oil output cuts of 5.16 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. The cuts include 3.66 million bpd by OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

While talking to renowned news agency Reuters, an OPEC+ source said that the existing curbs might not be enough and the group would likely analyze if there needed to be more implementation in the meeting to come and they did not deny the facts that deeper cuts could be discussed. 

What do expert agencies think about these events? 

The International Energy Agency, which updated its outlook this week, has a lower 2024 demand growth forecast and said the market could shift to a surplus in the first quarter.

Even with the US sanction from Venezuela being removed, the OPEC+ countries do not seem to be budging an inch when it comes to rejuvenating the market with more crude oil flows. 

At its last policy meeting in June, OPEC+ agreed on a broad deal to limit supply into 2024 and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary production cut for July of 1 million bpd that it has since extended to last until the end of 2023.

So the question that haunts the trading world is “Where’s crude oil going next? “

What’s India’s outlook on the matter?

In the latest news the Petroleum minister of India, Hardeep Singh Puri on Sunday had cautioned the OPEC+ grouping of oil exporting countries to watch out for market turbulence at their forthcoming meeting stating that high prices due to the uncertainties would lead to a drop in the demand. 

While speaking to Times of India after GAIL’s Second floating CNVG refueling facilities in Varanasi, he said ” It’s their legitimate right as to ascertain what they want to produce, abstain from production or to sell. However, be very careful with this as if we reach a situation wherein turbulence leads to high prices, then the demand will fall.” 

Furthermore, the Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, while talking at the 6th meeting of the Indian Opec Energy Dialogue in November said that a stable market benefits both the producers as well as the consumers. 

What will the technical outlook be for crude oil as we approach the OPEC+ meeting that has been postponed to November 30th, 2023? 

Stay tuned, and we will be back with an informative video and technical outlooks as well!!

Commodity Samachar

Learn and Trade with Ease

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