Crude Oil : What Lies Ahead on the OPEC Meeting Horizon?

Crude Oil : What Lies Ahead on the OPEC Meeting Horizon?

The wait for the OPEC meeting is almost over as the fate of crude oil will be seen soon on the horizon.

Previously OPEC + after a plethora of long negotiations in June, has extended oil output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day or in hindsight about 5% concerning the daily global demand, surprisingly until the end of 2024.

In addition to this surprising news, Saudi Arabia has been making a 1 million bpd voluntary reduction in output until the end of December 2023. Along with them, Russia has also cut the oil export of 300,000 bpd until the end of 2023.

Talking about the target that has been set, the group aims to produce a combined 40.58 million bpd by the next year after adjusting the baseline and targets for several countries.

Concerning African members, their targets were reduced for 2024 bringing them in line with declining production levels. It also reviews United Araba Emirates from boosting production capacity to increase output in 2024.

What’s the Agenda for the OPEC meeting?

OPEC news sources said the possibility of “further collective cuts” was expected on Thursday. They reported that the organization said earlier this month that the group would consider further cuts.

In addition, the OPEC meeting could further revise the 2024 targets for Nigeria, Angola and Congo, even after assessments by foreign analysts in June. Angola and Congo have missed their 2024 targets due to capacity constraints, while Nigeria has come close to or exceeded its 2023 target in recent months, according to the latest estimates.

In several situations, Saudi Arabia is also expected to extend its 1 million bpd voluntary cut to at least the first quarter of 2024.

Read now to know more: Suspense Booming: Are Unseen Factors Building Anticipation For The OPEC Meeting?

The Indian perspective on the OPEC’s movements:

In the latest news the Petroleum minister of India, Hardeep Singh Puri on Sunday had cautioned the OPEC+ grouping of oil exporting countries to watch out for market turbulence at their forthcoming meeting stating that high prices due to the uncertainties would lead to a drop in the demand.

While speaking to Times of India after GAIL’s Second floating CNVG refuelling facilities in Varanasi, he said ” It’s their legitimate right as to ascertain what they want to produce, abstain from production or to sell. However, be very careful with this as if we reach a situation wherein turbulence leads to high prices, then the demand will fall.”

Furthermore, the Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, while talking at the 6th meeting of the Indian Opec Energy Dialogue in November said that a stable market benefits both the producers as well as the consumers.

What will the technical outlook be for crude oil as we approach the OPEC+ meeting that has been postponed to November 30th, 2023?

Stay tuned, and we will be back with an informative video and technical outlooks as well!!

Commodity Samachar’s Technical Outlook:

As we have been anticipating the OPEC meeting and a conclusion to the fluctuation scenario for crude oil, Commodity Samachar had its suggestions on the issue.

While speaking with Ankit Kapoor, Head of Research at Commodity Samachar he had this to say

” In our previous report, we had conveyed that there was no bullish trend in crude oil. A 5% cut in production isn’t a big concern as such at the moment.

The focus should mostly be on the crude oil’s trajectory on the chart rather than the decisions taken by OPEC.

As per our suggestion, we would suggest not buying crude just yet. By our estimate, it’s best to buy above 7200 or begin positional buying between 5600 and 5500. Crude oil has a main support of 5200. If crude oil happens to close below 5200, then it’s quite certain that the global market will be in the grip of recession.

At present, due to the sharp rise in crude oil, positional selling could be executed between 6550 to 6700. In the ensuing days, we will be able to witness targets ranging from 6000 and below that to 5700 – 5550.

However, there will be no bullish trend in crude oil unless it gives a weekly closing above 7200.”

For a more in-depth video experience, check out our YouTube video where we’ve covered the whole matter.

Commodity Samachar
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Also Read: Is Crude Gearing Up for Turbulence Ahead of the OPEC Meeting?, Gold Trading: What’s Driving the Prices to 7-Month Highs and Beyond?

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