Copper Price Surges: Will the Momentum Hold or Fold?

Copper Price Surges: Will the Momentum Hold or Fold?

The Copper Price saw a speculative jump in reaction to the central bank policy of the ECB, BOE and FED. This caused huge volatility in the respective currencies. The main driver of the recent recovery has been the dollar, which fell to a four-month low yesterday.

The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro and  more than a four-month low against the Japanese yen in  broad selling on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that interest rate hikes are likely next year.  The euro and the pound, on the other hand, were supported by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, which confirmed the need to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Members of the central bank increased their forecast rates for next year, while they revised their inflation gauge downward, raising hopes that lower borrowing costs could support manufacturing.

 In addition, supply concerns also supported the trend, as Panama plans to close First Quantum’s Cobre mine, ending production from the world’s most important source of  supply. However, expectations of limited demand  from China limited growth, driven by a lack of stimulus announcements after policy meetings this week.

 In addition, positive feedback from the main importer China was also supportive. Copper price for futures for March settlement rose 0.3% to $3.8857 a pound and are expected to rise slightly this week. According to Chinese statistics, industrial production grew more than expected in November, pointing to recovery in some sectors of the economy. However, readings for retail sales and capital investment missed expectations.

But sentiment about China was also boosted by the People’s Bank, which injected about 1.45 trillion yuan ($200 billion) into the economy through its medium-term lending facility on Friday.  

 The injection also suggested that the PBOC will keep its key lending rate at a record low next week as it aims to boost the economic recovery.

Technical Outlook – Copper Price

Copper price will recover along with other commodities. Yesterday, prices rose to their highest level since  September 29, 2023. It was now trading at 729.40 and 0.31%. 

On the chart above, prices have broken through huge resistance, indicating that the momentum continues. In addition, prices have crossed the 200 SMA level, which currently provides strong support.

 Therefore, copper price were expected to test the next resistance at 735-740.00 in the near term. Any dip to 720-718 could attract buying activity.

On the downside, there is major support  at 705.00, a break below retreats to 698-695.

Commodity Samachar
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