Data – BOJ Policy & Global PMI
FX Update
Dollar Index
The Indian rupee closed lower on Thursday hurt by a decline in most regional currencies and dollar demand from foreign banks but market gauges signal that the bearish bias on the rupee has dampened in January.
In the broader market, the dollar was headed for its worst weekly fall in two months, after Trump’s widely expected tariff announcements did not materialize following his inauguration, unlike what he had threatened during his campaign.
The greenback was set to lose 1.4% against a basket of currencies, its steepest decline since November. The dollar index was last 0.23% lower at 107.89 on Friday.
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil markets sank, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump pressured OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia to lower prices in a broad push to drive up crude production. Trump, during his speech on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said he would demand the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries bring down the cost of crude barrels. Trump also said he would ask Riyadh to increase a U.S. investment package to $1 trillion, up from $600 billion reported by the Saudi state news agency earlier in the day.
Gold:
Gold prices edged higher and were on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade plans took wind out of the dollar’s sail, boosting demand for the safe-haven asset.
Copper
Copper prices retreated on Thursday as investors locked in profits from a recent rally, awaiting further clarity on tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump and stimulus for top metals consumer China. Financial markets were awaiting details after Trump said he could impose a 10% tariff on imports from China from Feb. 1, the same day he previously said Mexico and Canada would face levies of about 25%.
MCX Closing Update
Gold 79,626 (0.08%), Silver 91,149 (-0.86%), Crude oil 6,484 (-1.17%), Copper 832.75( 0.19%), Natural Gas 337.50 (-0.74%).
Economic Data and Event Released yesterday
Japan
National core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food items, grew 3% year-on-year in December as expected, government data showed on Friday. The reading was at its highest level since mid-2023, and picked up from the 2.7% seen last month.
The Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it hiked the short-term rate target by 25 basis points (bps) from 0.15%- 0.25% to 0.40%- 0.50% after concluding its two-day monetary policy review meeting. The decision aligned with the market expectations.
Eurozone
The European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale improved to -14.2 this month from -14.5 in December.
US
First-time unemployment claims rose to 223K last week, slightly above the forecast of 221K, signaling a marginally weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market performance.
Economic Data and Event scheduled today
Australia
At 6.00am-
Flash Manufacturing PMI. Previous was 47.8.
Flash Services PMI. Previous was 50.8.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Australian dollar.
Japan
At 5.00am National Core CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 3% from previous 2.7%.
At 6.00am- Flash Manufacturing PMI. Previous was 49.6.
Tentative –
BOJ Policy Rate (Market expect hike to 0.50% from 0.25%)
Monetary Policy Statement
BOJ Outlook Report
BOJ Press Conference
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Yen.
UK
At 3.00pm-
Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 46.90 from previous 47.00.
Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 50.80 from previous 51.10.
At 4.30pm- CBI Realized Sales. Data is foreseen at -11 from previous -15.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound.
Eurozone
At 1.45pm-
French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 42.4 from previous 41.9.
French Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 49.3 from previous 49.3.
At 2.00pm-
German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 42.7 from previous 42.5
German Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.1 from previous 51.20.
At 2.15pm-
Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at 45.6 from previous 45.1
Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.4 from previous 51.60.
At 3.30pm- ECB President Lagarde Speaks.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.
US
At 8.15pm-
Flash Manufacturing PMI. Data is foreseen at -0.51T from previous -0.38T
Flash Services PMI. Data is foreseen at -0.51T from previous -0.38T.
At 8.30pm-
Existing Home Sales. Data is foreseen at -0.51T from previous -0.38T
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Data is foreseen at -0.51T from previous -0.38T
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Canadian dollar.
Until then, Happy Trading!
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