
Aluminum prices witnessed over one percent fall on Thursday, retreating from the two-month high of and tracking the pullback in base metals after US President Trump signaled tariff against China, pressuring the foreign demand outlook for metals in the world’s top aluminum producers.
Still, the outlook of lower supply maintained futures nearly 5% above the near four-month low touched this year.
The EU was set to sanction the import of primary aluminum from Russia in its upcoming package, consolidating the phase out of metal from the country as manufacturers have self-shunned from buying Russian goods following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In turn, China produced a record high 44 million tons of aluminum in 2024, meaning that output will be forced to slow as Beijing capped output at the 45 million tons in 2017 to prevent excess supply and aid carbon emission targets.

The Aluminum prices retreated from a two month peak of 257, touched on 20 January. Yesterday, prices made a low 251.90 and settled with a loss of 1.06% at 252.55.
A double top candle stick formation on the above chart is indicating for further correction. Meanwhile, momentum oscillator RSI 14 and its 9 SMA is on the verge of an negative cross over. In a near future a break below 249.80 is expect to extend pressure till the immediate support 247-245.00.
Else, any rise towards the immediate resistance 253.50-254.00 is expect to attract pressure again, as tariff fears could under hold in pressure.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
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