Will natural gas recover after the biggest annual crash since 2006 ?

Natural gas opened at the beginning of the year with a gain of more than four percent. Prices fell by the largest percentage since 2006 due to record production, abundant inventories and relatively mild weather conditions.

Recently, the price of natural gas was 222.8 today, an increase of 4.16%. Annual decrease of 43.91%. From a high of 376.70 to a close of 211.90, compared to last year’s close of 377.80. The lowest level was 160.50. 

Prices fell sharply in a rally fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war as drillers ramp up output. LSEG data showed  average gas production in the lower 48 US states will rise to 103.5 billion cfd in 2023 from a record 98.4 billion cfd in 2022. 

The continental US also started the winter heating season with the most natural gas starting in 2020. , the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced earlier this month.  U.S. utilities removed 87 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas from storage last week, according to the EIA’s weekly report.

Inventories were 3,490 trillion cubic feet (tcf), about 11.1% more than the same week a year ago and 10% above the five-year average.  LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 129.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week, down from 119.5 billion cubic feet last week.

The following week, demand was expected to increase to $136.9 billion, in line with the January forecast. Gas flows to seven major US LNG export facilities averaged $14.6 billion in December, compared with a record $14.3 billion per day in November.

Technical Outlook

The price of natural gas was 222.8 today, an increase of 4.16%. On a year-over-year basis, it fell by 43.91 percent. From a high of 376.70 to a high of 211.90, compared to a high of 377.80 last year and a low of 377.80. The prices fell to 160.50 last year. 

Since mid-December 2023, prices have turned positive and recovered more than 6%.From a low of 198.60 to 223.20 and consolidating between this area to form a bullish pennant on the above chart.

Today, prices have risen, indicating further improvement. On the upside, a break above 224.10 opens the door to the next resistance at 235.50-241.50. Otherwise, any dip to 210-208 could attract buying activity.

Alternatively, on the downside, crucial support can be seen at 198.00 and below that, prices can pull back to 192-185.00.

 The pace of gas prices depends on the weather forecast. So favorable weather can reinforce bullish sentiment or vice versa.

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

Also Read: Low-impact data calendar on the last business day of the year , Market Clash: Will Eurozone, UK and US PMI numbers be in focus today?

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