German Inflation & FOMC Speech: Will It Drag Volatility Today?

The dollar hovered near a six-month peak, and kept the euro and sterling near their weakest levels in about three months, on signs of a resilient U.S. economy even as the global outlook weakened.

A barometer of pricing in the sector also increased more than anticipated in August, according to data that was issued on Wednesday.

The results increased worries that inflation will stay sticky in the foreseeable future, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish outlook.

The U.S. labour market is projected to continue strong, as seen by the anticipated increase in initial jobless claims from 228,000 to 235,000 later in the session.

Euro weakens near its lowest level since June against the dollar, after German industrial production fell 0.8% in July compared to the previous month, more than the expected 0.5% drop, underlining the challenges faced by manufacturing in Europe’s largest economy.

 The pound weakened against the dollar after data from Halifax, the U.K.’s largest lender, showed that U.K. house prices fell 4.6% on an annual basis in August.

Bullions and base metals remained slightly down for a fourth consecutive day following the strength in the dollar.

Crude oil prices gave up more than one per cent on a stronger dollar and expectations of weaker international demand.

As refineries operate at high rates to meet the world’s energy demand, crude oil stockpiles decreased by 6.3 million barrels last week, down for a fourth consecutive week and down more than 6% in the previous month, according to Energy Information Administration statistics.

The world’s top two oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, extended voluntary production restrictions through the end of the year, which caused prices to jump earlier in the week. These came in addition to the April cuts that certain OPEC+ producers agreed to implement through the end of 2024.

Concerns about rising oil output from Iran and Venezuela, which could balance out a portion of cuts from Saudi and Russia, kept a lid on the market as well.

MCX Gold future settled at 58998 down 0.15%. Silver at 71770 is down 0.97%. Copper prices settled at 728.05 down 0.75%. Crude oil settled at 7227 down 1.07%. Natural gas settled at 215.40 up 1.89%.

Economic data and events scheduled today


At 5.00 am- Average Cash Earnings y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.4% higher than previous 2.3%

At 5.20 am –

Bank Lending y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.8% lower from the previous 2.9%.

Current Account. Data is foreseen at 2.24Tlower from the previous 2.35T.

Final GDP q/q.  Data is foreseen at 1.4% lower from the previous 1.5%.

At 10.30 am – Economy Watchers Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 54.4 lower than the previous 54.40.

The above data could have a negative impact on the yen.


At 11.30 am – German Final CPI m/m. The previous was at 0.3%, the forecast is 0.30%.

At 12.15 pm – French Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2%, previous was at -0.90%.

Tentative – EU Economic Forecasts.

All the above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.


At 6.00 pm –

Employment Change. Foreseen at 18.9k. The forecast is -6.4k.

Unemployment Rate. Foreseen at 5.6% from 5.5%.

Capacity Utilization Rate. Foreseen at 82.5% from the previous 81.90%.

The above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.


At 6.30 pm – FOMC Member Barr Speaks.

At 7.30 pm Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. The forecast is 41.1 previous was 40.30.

All above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar