Donald Trump continues to dominate headlines and announce policies, but interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will compete with the U.S. president for investor attention this week.
US
The focus will be on the tone of Wednesday’s FOMC statement and press conference to gauge expectations for March.
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% by all 103 economists in a Jan 17 poll, as members consider the impact of changes to all sectors of the economy after a torrent of Trump policies.
Q4 advance GDP with the forecast of 2.7% from previous 3.1% and the December PCE Price Index dominate the U.S. data calendar on Friday with a forecast of 0.2% from previous 0.1%.
December durable goods, new home sales, weekly jobless claims and January consumer confidence are also due.
EUROZONE
On Thursday, European Center bank meeting will in Focus. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, according to all 77 economists polled, with further cuts likely as the economy struggles and inflationary pressures ease.
The policy statement and press conference will provide details on the ECB’s outlook and determine the market reaction.
Euro zone flash Q4 GDP, January sentiment indexes and final consumer confidence will also be watched, along with Germany’s Ifo survey and preliminary January inflation data.
UK
UK has no top-tier data this week.
Canada
The Bank of Canada also sets interest rates and releases its monetary policy report on Wednesday. A benign inflation reading in December has heightened rate cut expectations, with markets pricing an over 80% chance of a 25 bps cut to 3.00% .
Japan
Tokyo January CPI leads Japan’s data calendar on Friday with a forecast of 2.5% from previous 2.4%; December services PPI, jobs, industrial output, and retail sales data are also due.
The Bank of Japan’s Dec 18-19 meeting minutes will be overshadowed by its Jan 24 rate hike.
China
In China, the official NBS January PMIs and December industrial profits are released on Monday. Mainland markets are closed from Jan 28 to Feb 4 for the Lunar New Year holidays.
Australia
Australia’s monthly and quarterly CPI releases on Wednesday will shape Reserve Bank of Australia policy expectations.
The annual trimmed mean CPI is seen slowing to 3.2% in Q4, nearer to the RBA’s 2-3% target band. This would reinforce expectations of a 25 bps rate cut on Feb 18.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets
Also Read: BOJ Policy & Global PMI: Key Focus on Economic Data Today , Tariff Fear threatens to a pullback from 2 month peak – What next?
Recommended Read: 2024 G20 Summit: Did It Deliver on Market Expectations?
Want Help On Your Trades ?
Chat with RM