The Israel Palestine War news has taken over the media and divided nations, forcing them to pick sides to support.
As per the latest Israel Palestine War News from the Palestinian Health Ministry on Tuesday morning, it declared that almost 770 people have been killed in Gaza and 4000 have been injured. The Israeli Defence forces said that over 900 Israelis have been killed and over 2700 injured. These numbers bring the total death toll to over 1600.
The whole world has been shaken by the shocking news and commodities in the global market like gold and silver are also reacting to this news.
The continuing situation raises questions on the history, motivations and future trajectory of this conflict and its long-term effect on the market.
In this blog, we’ll be covering a brief history behind the conflict and its effect on the upcoming sessions in the commodity market.
History behind the Israel Palestine War:
To understand more about the conflict, we’ll have to go back to the end of World War I, after which Britain had gained control of Palestine which was then inhabited by Jewish minority and Arab Majorities.
In the 1920 and 1940s, due to the beginning of the Holocaust, several Jewish immigrants rushed to Palestine to avoid persecution. This led to friction between the Jews and Arabs as well and hatred toward the British rule also intensified.
In 1947, due to the frictions, the UN voted to divide Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states with Jerusalem being under international administration.
This led to fights between the Jewish and Arab leaders and a year later, after British authorities withdrew, the Jewish leaders founded Israel. This was the beginning of the war.
Hamas – What’s the real story behind this group?
In 1987, Hamas an acronym for ‘Islamic Resistance Movement’, a political militant group was established by Palestinian Cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.
It is a group that is dedicated to the establishment of an independent Islamic state in historic Palestine and has controlled the Gaza Strip which is one of the 2 Palestinian territories along with the West Bank since 2007.
Tracing its roots back to the late 1970s when activists established charities, clinics and schools in the Gaza Strip and West Bank after Israel occupied both in 1967.
This radical group came into formation after being formally established in December 1987 by Sheik Ahmad Yassin after the outbreak of a Palestinian uprising known as the first intifada.
Ensuing this in the following year Hamas declared that liberating Palestine from Israeli occupation was every Muslime’s religious duty. In 1989, Hamas carried out its first attack against Israel 1989 where they abducted and killed 2 soldiers, leading towards Israel’s arrest of Yassin. Yassin would later be released in the year 1998 in exchange for Mossad agents who had tried to assassinate Hamas’s political bureau chief, Khaled Meeshal in Jordan.
Hamas further went on to enter politics in 2006, which won them a landslide victory in parliamentary elections the next year beating its rival Fatah. However the two party rivalries got the better of them, and Hamas ended up favouring armed resistance while Fatah preferred to negotiate.
Even though the negotiations took place, disagreements between them led to an armed conflict that would end with Hamas in charge of Gaza, while Fatah held the West Bank.
After all these years, both the US and European Union classify Hamas as a terrorist organisation while others see it as a resistance movement.
Israel Palestine War News | The War Scenario:
For several years, both Israel and Palestine were involved in several minor and catastrophic scenarios wherein it had led to the death of thousands.
In 1987, Hamas an acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement, a political militant group was established by Palestinian Cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.
Following this, 2 big Palestinian uprisings impacted Israeli-Palestinian relations ending peace and starting a huge conflict.
Even with US intervention by US President Bill Clinton on July 11, 2000, the Summit ended in no agreement but worsening relations between the nations.
UN’s Views on the ‘Life in Gaza’:
Since 2007, Israel has imposed an air, land and sea blockade on the Gaza String saying that the move was necessary to prevent Hamas attacks on the country. The United Nations and International human rights groups have condemned this blockade and have described Gaza s the “World’s largest open-air prison”. Concrete walls and barbed wire fences enclose Gaza, preventing its inhabitants from leaving without Israeli approval.
Between the years 2008 and 2023, Israeli airstrikes killed 6,407 Palestinians in the occupied territories, 5,360 of whom were in Gaza according to the United Nations. israel claims that the strikes were targeted at Hamas operatives because they drew condemnation from the UN and other groups due to high civilian casualty counts being reported.
The UN also reports that there is an unemployment rate in Gaza that is above 40%, more than 65% of the population is under the poverty line and 63% of Gazans have deemed their food to be insecure.
Furthermore, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday ” I Am deeply distressed by today’s announcement that Israel will initiate a complete siege of the Gaza Strip. Nothing will be allowed in, no electricity, food or fuel. Before these hostilities, the humanitarian situation was in a terrible state. Things will now rapidly deteriorate.”
In addition, Basim Naim, the head of foreign affairs for Hamas in Gaza, stated on Monday’s “World at One” radio program that the “unfortunate support of the international community” had allowed the “suffocating siege” on Gaza’s people to continue for the past 17 years.
All of this has led to a great deal of discontent among Palestinians, and we have consistently informed the diplomats and politicians we have encountered that this scenario is untenable, according to Naim. “People under occupation have always had the right to resist by all available means, including armed resistance.”
Israel’s Netanyahu has pledged to take “mighty vengeance” for what he called Hamas’ “cruel and wicked war.”
Israel Palestine War News | Commodity Market Future Outlook:
With the conflict waging on, the global markets especially commodities like Gold and Silver have been reacting drastically.
Ankit Kapoor, Head of Research at Commodity Samachar had this to say ” The conflict between nations is an unfortunate set of events. These do not create an environment for profitability. As the saying goes ‘ One Man’s Loss is Another Man’s Gain’. Taking the issue into consideration, investors in gold should keep focus. As you know there is a rise in the prices of gold and crude oil in recession or stressful situations.
The war is in the Middle East where our reserves are going to be affected. A rise in gold prices will also be seen.
Even though there was pressure on gold due to the Fed’s decision due to the continuous interest rate, the news of war between Israel and Hamas skyrocketed gold’s trajectory. Gold has moved from lows of $1810 to $1885 and several investors have benefited from this upside movement.
As the war stabilizes and there is no possibility of other countries being involved, gold will stabilize. The main resistance zone for gold is $1900 – $1930 & it’s expected that the fold will soon touch the target of $1900.
If gold closes above $1930, then we will see this rise till $120–$150 i.e. $2050–$2080.
Several of our clients have also asked if Gold can even reach $5000 or not.
Answering this, there are possibilities for gold to rise to $5000 based on inflation and the dollar and not because of the events of war.
If gold crosses $1930 then we will see targets of $2050—$2080 and then up to $2150. This will happen only when the situation remains disappointing or there is continuous bad news from the global market.
Gold currently has a main resistance zone of $2150. If gold gives a weekly closing above $2150, then it means that we will see a new rise which will go up to $2450.
We believe that in the coming session, a good rise in the prices of gold can be seen but it’s not possible to break $3000 in this rise. If we calculate the value of the dollar along with inflation, then the price of gold does not exceed $2450 at present.
Even if under any circumstances the price of gold crosses the price of $2700, it can be assumed that the price of gold will come back to between $2150–$1900 as soon as possible.
At present the support and stop loss in gold has become $1800.
In MCX gold, targets up to 59000—59700 can be seen. The real bullish trend in gold will be above 60000 and targets can be seen up to 64000—66500. Don’t follow a bearish trend for now.
At present, we do not see gold prices below Rs 55000 in the Indian market.
What’s the future outlook for the Conflict:
Hamas has called on its fighters in the West Bank, and Arab and Islamic worlds to join forces against Israel.
On the other side, Israel and Egypt maintain tight control over Gaza’s borders to prevent Hamas from obtaining weapons leading towards a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the inaccessibility of necessities such as food and water.
Where will this war lead towarda and will the market’s current momentum sustain?
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