Impact of Ceasefire Talks on Crude Oil Prices


The ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have significantly influenced crude oil prices, leading to cautious investor behavior and fluctuations in the market. When the talks initially began, there was a sense of relief in the market, resulting in a decrease in oil prices due to reduced risk premium. For instance, on April 8, 2024, oil futures ended lower as ceasefire talks resumed, signaling a decline in geopolitical tensions. Similarly, on April 9, 2024, oil prices slipped as the talks progressed, indicating a reduction in geopolitical tensions 2.

However, despite the talks, there has been no breakthrough, and the region remains on high alert for potential Iranian retaliation over a suspected Israeli air strike on Iran’s embassy in Syria. This uncertainty has heightened concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict could escalate across the Middle East, posing a risk to oil supply. Consequently, oil prices have consolidated gains amid worries of a worsening Middle East crisis. For instance, on April 11, 2024, Brent crude futures advanced by 4 cents to $90.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 2 cents at $86.24 a barrel 1.

The ceasefire talks have indeed had a significant impact on crude oil prices, causing fluctuations due to the uncertainty and potential for escalation in the Middle East. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, recognizing that any disruption to oil supply from the region could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, with potential ripple effects on global economies.

In conclusion, the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have played a pivotal role in shaping the volatility of crude oil prices. The ongoing uncertainty and potential for escalation in the Middle East continue to be key factors driving fluctuations in the market. Investors will remain vigilant, understanding that developments in the region can have far-reaching implications for oil prices and global economies.

A Technical Analysis Perspective on Crude oil

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has rallied again during the week after testing the $85 level. This is a market that I think eventually continues to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the $90 level, maybe even as high as $95 over the course of the summer.

We have had a very strong start to the year, and I think that continues to be the case going forward for a multitude of reasons. Either way, the technical analysis is very strong in this market, and the $80 level underneath, I think, is the flaw in the market. Short term pullbacks continue to get bought into. And really at the end of the day, that’s the most important thing that you’ll see in the chart.

Now, we are over $85. Still, also the request could go looking to the $100 level, If we can break above $90 level. Short term retreats continue to get bought into over then as well. Keep in mind that there are a lot of geopolitical enterprises in the Middle East, and that could impact the force. likewise, the force is n’t really that great at the moment. So short term retreats I suppose get bought into for that reason alone. Central banks around the world are likely to start cutting rates eventually latterly this time. And that could drive up demand. And we also have cyclical trade where everybody starts to travel encyclopedically. So that also tends to drive up the price of oil this time of year.

Trade Recommendation:

Exciting development in the energy market!🚀
US oil is showing strong potential for a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle patttern. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation followed by a significant price movement, and all signs are pointing towards an upward trajectory.

Based on technical analysis and patterns seen it could be suggested for traders to think about entering into Long position in US OIL above at current market price (CMP) which is $85.335 The stop loss should be put at $82.50 dollars making it easier to handle risk hence effectively doing so. As for the target price, aiming for $90—$93 aligns with a favorable risk-reward ratio of 1:2, offering an attractive opportunity for potential gains.

Crude oil: There is a symmetrical triangle pattern has been formed. It has also break the resistance level of 7300. Crude oil is ready for a bull trend again. Buy Crude oil above 7100, Stop loss will be below 6900. Target 7300—-7600 and then to 8000. (CMP)7080

Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease

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