UK inflation, GDP data will be critical next week. In addition, Chinese economic indicators add to volatility and geopolitical risks appear to continue to support oil prices
The key data and events for this week – Will GDP Data Take over?
Monday – US Core Retail Sales m/m
The weekly economic calendar begins with US retail sales data. The data is forecast at 0.5% from 0.3% previously, which is slightly higher than the previous one. Retail sales m/m are expected to decline slightly to 0.4% from 0.6% previously.
Both numbers may have different implications for the dollar.
Tuesday- China Macro Numbers
Economic indicators from China affect the entire market. Industrial production is forecast to be slightly 6.0% from 7.0% previously, GDP is forecast to be 4.8%, which is slightly below the 5.2% measured in the last quarter of 2023. The numbers looks forward to better data based on the latest data efforts to revive the economy. Retail sales are forecast at 5.1%, up from 5.5% previously.
Any number could weigh on the yuan and base metal prices. of.
The second data of the day is UK employment figures. The UK labor market has slowed significantly over the past year due to some contraction in GDP. The economy appears to be recovering, but job growth may remain weak for some time. From the point of view of wage inflation, the cooled labor market can only be good news.
Growth in the average weekly wage without bonuses slowed from last summer’s peak of 8.9 percent to 6.1 percent in January. A slowdown likely in February, a trend underlined by a Bank of England survey showing that expectations of wage growth fell to their lowest level in two years..
Further, BOE Gov Bailey Speaks could add some volatility.
Wednesday – UK CPI
UK inflation is out on Wednesday. Readings are expected to fall to 3.1 percent in March from 3.4 percent in February. It is also predicted that the base number will fall again. A fall in inflation of 3.4% in February compared to a year ago could raise expectations of such a move if the BoE also publishes new data.
Weak inflation data from the UK could also add pressure to the euro as the two economies are linked – and potentially strengthen the US dollar. The Federal Reserve will probably be the last central bank standing.
UK inflation has fallen sharply from its double-digit peak:
Thursday – US Weekly jobless claims
US jobless ads have been published since last week. The figures remained stable for several months. This time can vary for two reasons.
First, large events such as nonfarm payrolls or inflation are not shadowed.
The second is the figures for the week that includes Day 12 of the NFP numbres. The market can pay more attention to the data. It is expected to be 214,000 higher than the previous 211,000 This could weigh on the dollar.
Friday – UK Retail Sales m/m
UK retail sales numbers for March will be watched for clues on whether consumer spending is picking up or not.
Cable is currently testing the floor of the sideways range it’s been trading in since December and the incoming data pose a downside risk should they suggest that the Bank of England is still on track to start cutting rates in August, while the Fed’s timeline has started to shift to September.
The number is foreseen at 0.3% against the previous 0.0%, that could have a positive impact on the pound.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease
Also Read: Nifty Falters After All-Time High: Correction or Reversal?, USDCAD Sharply Rising – Will it test weekly resistance levels?
Recommended Read: RBI MPC Meeting 2024: What’s On the RBI’s Radar?
Want help on your trades?
Chat With Our Analyst