Economic Data: Will China Inflation And RBI Policy Take Lead?

The Economic Data look exciting today as there’s a three way ties between unemployment claims,. RBI policy and also the China inflation numbers. But before that, let’s dive into the news!!

The dollar index was neutral against the major currencies yesterday as traders took less dovish remarks from policymakers overnight and awaited fresh US economic data.

The dollar index fell by 0.08% to 104,052 points.

Coming towards one of the main economic data of the day, China’s CPI inflation rose more slowly than expected in January as the New Year holiday boosted modest spending growth, while the ongoing decline in factory-gate inflation eased slightly.

consumer price inflation increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January, the data from the Statistics Office showed. The reading was a weaker than expected 0.4% increase, but improved from December’s 0.1%.

Annually, consumer price inflation decreased by 0.8% in January, which is much worse than the expected 0.5% decline and last month’s 0.3% figure.

Crude gained as the rejection of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas pointed to continued unrest in the Middle East, although weak economic signals from China overshadowed progress.

Prices extended Wednesday’s gains after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire offered by Hamas leaders, dashing hopes of a conflict that now appears to have spread to more parts of the Middle East.

Gold prices are slightly higher in early Asian trade as the outlook for the global rate cut cycle is positive. Four Fed officials said they saw no immediate need to cut interest rates, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank wanted to see a few more months of inflation data before taking action.

Copper fell to a three-week low on Wednesday as sluggish Chinese demand and the run-up to the New Year holiday and continued dollar strength weighed on the market.

MCX gold futures settled flat to 62524. Silver settled down 0.40% at 70311. Copper down 0.84% to 711.20. Crude oil up 0.77% at 6131. Natural gas down 2.34% to 167.3.

Economic data and events scheduled – Who’ll take lead today’s market?


At 7.00am –

CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at -0.5% from previous -0.3%.

PPI y/y. Data is foreseen at -2.6% from previous -2.7%.

Above data could have a negative impact on the Yuan.


At 8.30pm-MPC Member Mann Speaks.

Above data could have a mixed impact on the pound.


At 2.30pm- ECB Economic Bulletin

All above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.


At 7.00pm-

Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 221k from previous 224k.

FOMC Member Barkin Speaks.

At 8.30pm- Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous 0.4%.

Tentative – Mortgage Delinquencies. Previous was at 3.62%.

At 9.00pm- Natural Gas Storage. Forecast -73B. Previous was at -197B.

At 10.30pm- FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

Above data could have a Volatile impact on the dollar.


At 10.00am –

Reserve REPO Rate. Forecast 6.50% from previous 6.50%.

Cash Reserve Ratio. Forecast 4.50% from previous 4.50%.

Reverse Repo Rate. Forecast N.A. Previous 3.35%.

Above policy and statement will have strong impact on Indian Rupee and Market.

Commodity Samachar
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Also Read: India Energy Week 2024: Influencing Today’s Crude Oil and Natural Gas Trade? , Forex News Letter: Fate of Gold Hanging in the Balance?

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