Cluster of Inflation data and speech. What will impact this week?

Cluster of Inflation data and speech. What will impact this week?


On Monday, the US market will be closed due to Columbus Day; it will also be a holiday in Canada.


The U.S. is to release meaningful consumer and producer price index data for September on Wednesday. The number will be a game changer as investors continue to weigh the Fed rate sentiment.

 The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% in September from previous reading 0.7%.

 On the same day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest meeting, which will be closely watched. With market watchers looking for clues on whether policymakers are leaning towards another rate hike before the end of the year.


Market will react strongly to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The headline and core rates are expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase.  While, CPI numbers expected to be lower from previous reading. At 0.3% compared to 0.6% on MoM basis, while 3.6% from 3.7% on YoY basis.

A surprise with above than forecasted inflation may increase expectations of further tightening from the Federal Reserve and could boost demand for US Dollar and higher yields. Alternatively, numbers below estimates could fuel risk appetite and weigh on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, the weekly Jobless Claims report will also be closely watched, especially after the upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls. Numbers expected at 216k from previous 207k.

Further, the UK is set to release GDP numbers. Forecast is to have an expansion by 0.2% from contraction of 0.5%. That would have a positive impact on the pound.

From the domestic front, India CPI YoY basis is set to release. The number is foreseen at 5.45% lower from the previous reading 6.83%. That would support the Indian Rupee.

Meanwhile, Industrial production data is foreseen much higher at 9.3% compared to previous 5.7%. This would also be supporting the Rupee.


China will release CPI data on Friday, which will be important for market sentiment and for the currency.  The numbers expected to be higher by 0.2% from previous 0.1%, It would have a positive impact on the metals prices as well.

On the same day, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. That would indicate financial confidence of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The number is foreseen at 67.5, slightly lower from previous 68.10.

India WPI inflation also is scheduled to release. The number is foreseen 0.50% higher against the contraction of 0.52%.

Various speech may bring clutter this week

Moreover, Several Fed officials are scheduled to give speeches including Vice Chair Jefferson and Logan on Monday, and Waller on Tuesday. FOMC Member Waller Speaks on Wednesday.

BOE Gov Bailey, ECB President Lagarde, and FOMC Member Harker Speaks on Friday.

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks on Saturday.

Snaky headlines from the above speech will drag volatility in the market