China’s central bank’s rate decision, Canada’s CPI focus today

The dollar inched higher on Monday after rising for the fifth week straight on the back of strong inflation data, while the yen traded near the psychologically important 150 level.

U.S. markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, with trading volumes likely to be low throughout the day.

Gold prices hit their highest in almost a week on Monday as the U.S. dollar retreated slightly and conflict in the Middle East buoyed bullion’s safe-haven appeal.

Copper prices slipped on Monday after China’s central bank held key policy rates on medium-term loans steady and the market focused on the country’s ailing property market, but falling inventories contained losses.

Trading for a Wednesday settlement on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is likely to mean a volatile session, while volumes are expected to be muted due to a U.S. holiday.

Crude was little changed, as festering demand concerns were offset by continuing conflict in the Middle East.

Moreover, The PBOC cut its five-year LPR, which is used to determine mortgage rates, to 3.95% from 4.10%, while the one-year LPR was left unchanged at 3.45%.

Today’s move was somewhat unexpected, after the central bank kept medium-term lending rates unchanged over the weekend. But steadily worsening economic conditions in China had seen some investors positioning for more monetary easing in the country.

The LPR is determined by the PBOC based on considerations from 18 designated commercial banks, and is used as a benchmark for lending rates in the country.

MCX gold futures settled +0.20% to 62004. Silver settled -1.12% at 71306. Copper settled -0.43% to 720.10. Crude oil -0.31% at 6518. Natural gas -1.50% to 138.2.

Economic data and events scheduled today.


At 6.45am –

1-y Loan Prime Rate. Forecast 3.45%, unchanged from previous.

5-y Loan Prime Rate. Forecast is 4.10% from previous 4.20%.

Tentative – Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y. Previous was at -8.0%.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Yen.


At 2.30pm- Current Account. Data is foreseen at 20.3B from previous at 24.6B.

Above data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.


At 3.45pm- Monetary Policy Report Hearings.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound.


At 7.00pm-

CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous -0.3%.

Median CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 3.6% from previous 3.6%.

Trimmed CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 3.6% from previous 3.7%.

Common CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 3.8% from previous 3.9%.

Core CPI m/m. Previous was at -0.5%.

Above data could have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar.


At 8.30pm-CB Leading Index m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.3% from previous -0.1%.

Above data could have a neutral impact on the dollar.

Commodity Samachar
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