22-12-2025
The global turmeric market is projected to grow steadily over the medium term, reflecting its
transition from a traditional culinary spice to a multi-industry functional ingredient. As shown
in the chart, the market size is estimated at around USD 3.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to
reach approximately USD 4.3 billion by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of
about 5%. This growth is supported by rising consumption in food and beverages, increased
use of turmeric in health-oriented diets, and expanding export demand from North America,
Europe, and East Asia. The steady CAGR indicates consistent volume absorption rather than
speculative growth, providing a strong demand base for turmeric producers and traders.
Beyond headline market growth, the composition of demand is shifting toward higher-value
applications, which has important implications for prices. A growing share of this market
expansion is coming from pharma, nutraceuticals, and personal care segments, where turmeric
and curcumin are used as active functional ingredients rather than bulk spices. These
applications require better quality, higher curcumin content, and stricter compliance with
residue and processing standards, effectively tightening the usable supply. As a result, even a
moderate 5% overall market growth can translate into stronger price support at the farm and
futures level, particularly during lean supply periods, and can gradually push average turmeric
prices higher over the coming years.
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Top Producing Countries
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The global turmeric market in 2025 is dominated by the food and beverage sector, which remains the largest application segment, primarily due to its essential role in culinary traditions and its rising adoption as a natural, "clean-label" food colorant. The pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries follow as the fastest-growing segments, driven by surging consumer demand for curcumin-based supplements targeted at immunity and joint health. While roughly 70% of turmeric exports are still in unprocessed forms, there is a distinct market shift toward high-value standardized extracts (often 95% curcumin) and organic varieties to satisfy stringent international health standards in North America and Europe. Overall, domestic household use in producing countries like India continues to absorb a significant portion of annual production, but industrial demand for functional ingredients is the primary catalyst for the market`s projected 5% to 6.5% compound annual growth rate.
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Pharmaceutical Consumption
Pharma and nutraceutical demand for turmeric is rising quickly and is likely to be a major
upward force on prices, especially for higher-curcumin, extraction-grade material. The global
curcumin (turmeric extract) market was estimated at roughly USD 98–101 million in 2024–
2025 and multiple market reports project it to roughly double by the end of the decade (for
example to ~USD 200 million by 2030) at an annual growth rate in the order of 10–12%
(several sources report CAGRs ~10–12% for curcumin through 2030–2032). This growth is
driven by expanding use of curcumin in dietary supplements, anti-inflammatory and immunity
products, and by incorporation of standardized curcumin into functional foods and
combination pharmaceutical formulations. At the broader product level, turmeric market
reports show the whole turmeric market growing at a more modest mid single-digit CAGR
(around 5–6% in many forecasts), which means most of the rapid value growth is concentrated
in the curcumin/extract segment rather than bulk culinary spice.
Several practical implications follow for prices.
First, because curcumin extraction requires turmeric with higher curcumin content and
consistent quality, rising curcumin demand puts disproportionate pressure on supply for
premium grades; market reporting and trade coverage note that buyers in Western markets pay
premiums for turmeric with >5% curcumin while large volumes from India often have only
~2% curcumin, creating a quality squeeze that supports price differentials.
Second, the faster growth rate of the curcumin market implies that value (and willingness to
pay) can rise faster than volume demand: even modest absolute increases in extraction-grade
raw material demand can translate into outsized price pressure on those grades and upward
adjustments in overall spot and futures levels as mills and extractors compete for supply.
Finally, near-term trends to watch that could accelerate price moves are expanding supplement
penetration in North America and Europe, new clinical/marketing approvals for curcumin
formulations, tighter quality/residue standards in export markets (which shrink usable supply),
and any weather or acreage shocks in major Indian producing states; any combination of these
can quickly raise premiums for extract-grade turmeric and lift NCDEX basis and contract
prices.
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Production of Turmeric
India’s turmeric production over the last three years along with an estimated outlook for the
next three years. Production declined from about 11.6 lakh tonnes in 2022–23 to roughly
10.7 lakh tonnes in 2023–24. This drop reflects a combination of reduced acreage, higher
input costs, and weather-related stresses in key producing states. Lower prices in the
preceding season also discouraged farmers from maintaining or expanding turmeric
cultivation, leading to a noticeable contraction in output.
In 2024–25, production is estimated to have recovered to around 11.5 lakh tonnes. This
rebound suggests that farmers responded to firmer prices and improved market sentiment by
stabilising acreage, while more normal rainfall conditions helped improve yields in several
regions. However, the recovery remains moderate rather than sharp, indicating that structural
constraints such as labour availability, rising cultivation costs, and yield limitations continue
to cap rapid supply expansion.
The forward projection from 2025–26 onwards assumes a gradual growth path, with
production increasing at around 4% per year under normal conditions. On this basis, output
could reach close to 12.0 lakh tonnes in 2025–26, about 12.4 lakh tonnes in 2026–27, and
nearly 12.9 lakh tonnes by 2027–28. This growth rate reflects incremental improvements
through better agronomic practices, modest acreage expansion, and improved price
realisations, rather than any major productivity breakthrough.
Despite the upward trend, the chart also implies that turmeric supply is likely to remain
relatively tight in relation to demand growth. Rising consumption from food processing, exports, and especially pharma and nutraceutical applications is expected to grow at a pace
comparable to or faster than production. As a result, even with increasing output, market
availability may not expand sufficiently to create large surpluses, supporting a structurally
higher price range.
Overall, the production pattern suggests increasing volatility and sensitivity to external
factors such as monsoon performance and cost pressures. While the medium-term outlook
points to gradual growth, any adverse weather, disease incidence, or renewed acreage shifts
could quickly disrupt this trajectory. This underlying supply uncertainty, combined with
steady demand growth, provides a supportive backdrop for turmeric prices in the coming
years.
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Supply of Turmeric
The monthly arrivals pattern shown in the chart, with supplies peaking around February–April
and then declining sharply from May onwards, reflects the typical turmeric seasonality in
India. Harvest arrivals concentrate in Q1–early Q2, after which market inflows fall as stocks
move into farmers’, traders’ and stockists’ hands. This seasonal tightening in arrivals is one of
the first reasons turmeric prices tend to firm up in the second half of the year and sets the base
for medium-term price strength.
Looking beyond seasonality, the biggest structural reason for price rise in coming years is
demand growth outpacing effective supply growth. India already accounts for nearly 75–80%
of global turmeric production, but acreage expansion is limited due to crop rotation, rising
input costs, and competition from alternative cash crops like cotton, soybean and maize. Yield
growth has also plateaued in many regions, making supply relatively inelastic. Any weather disruption in key belts such as Telangana, Maharashtra or Tamil Nadu quickly tightens
availability and lifts prices.
On the cost side, higher labour costs, rising fertiliser and energy prices, and increased postharvest handling and compliance costs are pushing up the minimum viable price for farmers.
Over time, this raises the floor price for turmeric, even in normal crop years. Storage and
financing costs also encourage higher asking prices in the lean season.
Combining these factors, turmeric prices are likely to see a structurally higher trading range in
coming years rather than sharp one-time spikes. In normal crop conditions, average prices
could trend 15–25% higher over the next 3–5 years compared to recent averages. In years with
weather stress or export-driven demand surges, price rallies of 30–40% from seasonal lows
are realistic, especially during the lean arrival period from August to December.
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Indian State wise Turmeric Production
The table shows that India’s turmeric production has declined in the current financial year
(2024–25, provisional) to about 10.75 lakh tonnes from around 11.70 lakh tonnes in the
previous year, indicating a fall of roughly 8%. This decline is broad-based rather than isolated,
with major producing states like Telangana, Karnataka, and Odisha recording noticeable
reductions. Telangana, which had emerged as a key growth driver in recent years, shows a
sharp drop from about 1.74 to 1.17 lakh tonnes, making it the single largest contributor to the
national decline. Karnataka and Odisha also show significant year-on-year contractions, while
only a few states such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh report marginal increases.
The primary reasons for this fall in production are a combination of acreage reduction and
weather-related yield stress. In several turmeric-growing belts, farmers shifted acreage to
alternative crops due to lower price realisations in the previous season and higher input costs
for seed rhizomes, labour, fertilisers, and irrigation. Erratic monsoon behaviour in parts of
Telangana, Karnataka, and Odisha, including uneven rainfall distribution and dry spells during
critical growth stages, affected yields and rhizome development. In some regions, excess
rainfall and waterlogging led to higher disease incidence, further impacting output
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Major Turmeric Trading Centers in India
India`s turmeric trade is anchored by high-volume hubs in Telangana and Maharashtra.
Nizamabad (Telangana) has emerged as a dominant force, recently reporting daily arrivals of
400–500 bags and peaking at 390.80 tonnes in a single trading day, the highest in the
country. Meanwhile, Sangli (Maharashtra) maintains its legacy as Asia’s largest trading hub
with annual volumes exceeding 13,996 tonnes, though its weekly arrivals fluctuate around
65 tonnes depending on the season. Together, these markets set the benchmark for national
pricing and supply liquidity.
In Southern India, Erode (Tamil Nadu) serves as the second-largest dedicated market, with
weekly snapshots showing arrivals of approximately 757 tonnes, far outpacing smaller
centers like Salem, which handles about 6.5 tonnes weekly. In Andhra Pradesh, Duggirala
remains a vital node, capable of handling over 1,950 tonnes in normal seasons, with daily
reports showing mixed arrivals of bulb and finger varieties totaling nearly 50 tonnes. When
combined with regional centers like Coimbatore and Dharmapuri, these Tamil Nadu and
Andhra Pradesh mandis routinely contribute hundreds of tonnes daily, ensuring a steady flow
of turmeric into the domestic and export pipelines.
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Challenges faced while producing Turmeric
The key challenges highlighted in the report that can contribute to higher turmeric prices in
the coming years are largely structural and supply-side in nature. One major issue is low
curcumin content in most Indian turmeric varieties, which typically average around 2%,
whereas global pharma and nutraceutical buyers increasingly demand turmeric with 5% or
higher curcumin. This mismatch limits the usable supply for high-value markets and creates a
premium for quality material, effectively tightening availability even when headline
production looks adequate. Upgrading varieties and cultivation practices takes time, so this
quality constraint is likely to persist and support higher prices for suitable grades.
Another important challenge is rising cost of production and labour intensity. Turmeric
cultivation and harvesting are highly labour-dependent, and farmers are facing steadily
increasing labour wages, fertiliser prices, irrigation costs, and post-harvest processing
expenses. At the same time, weather volatility such as floods, uneven monsoons, and disease
outbreaks has increased yield risk in major producing states. These factors raise the minimum
viable price for farmers and discourage aggressive acreage expansion, reducing the ability of
supply to respond quickly to higher demand and pushing the long-term price floor upward.
Supply chain inefficiencies and quality compliance issues also play a role in tightening
effective supply. Fragmented marketing channels, multiple intermediaries, limited access to
modern processing, and past issues such as contamination or adulteration have led to rejected
export consignments and stricter import checks. While this is a challenge for exporters, it also
reduces the volume of turmeric that meets export and pharma standards, shrinking the pool of
acceptable supply. As global buyers become more selective and compliance costs rise, only a
portion of production qualifies for premium demand, which supports higher prices overall.
Finally, competition from alternative crops and limited farmer incentives to invest in turmeric
add to supply rigidity. When prices are weak in one season, farmers often shift acreage to crops
with quicker returns or lower risk, and coming back to turmeric requires high upfront
investment in seed rhizomes and working capital. This stop-go planting pattern increases the
chances of future supply shortfalls. Combined with strong global demand growth, especially
from pharma and wellness segments, these production and structural challenges create a
supportive environment for sustained turmeric price increases rather than prolonged low-price
cycles
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Global Demand for Turmeric
Asia – Pacific
The regional analysis reveals a global turmeric market valued at approximately 3.4 billion to
3.6 billion in 2025, with projections indicating it will reach between 4.3 billion and 5.8
billion by 2030 to 2035. The Asia-Pacific region currently holds a dominant 82% share of
the global market, largely because India serves as the world`s largest producer, consumer,
and exporter. India`s central government has set a strategic goal to increase production to 2
million metric tons within five years to meet this rising international demand.
North America
In terms of growth, North America is identified as the fastest-growing market, with a
projected compound annual growth rate of 5.5% through 2030. This expansion is driven by a
21% increase in turmeric-containing product launches in 2024 as consumers shift toward
natural and clean-label ingredients. The United States, which imports nearly 97% of its
turmeric from India, saw its import value rise significantly from 14 million in 2013 to 51
million by 2023. This trend is expected to continue as the pharmaceutical application
segment, a major driver in the region, expands at a rate of 12.5%.
Europe
Europe is also emerging as a high-value market, with Germany alone forecast to grow at
3.9% annually. The region`s demand is heavily influenced by the organic sector; for
example, the European turmeric milk mix market is expected to reach 43.7 million by 2030.
Other regions
Other regions like the Middle East and Africa are seeing growth, with the market in these
areas expected to reach approximately 846.85 million by 2033. These figures underscore a
broader global shift where turmeric is moving beyond traditional kitchens into a multi-billion
dollar industrial staple across the beauty, health, and functional food sectors.
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Pricing and Technical Analysis
Trade –
Buy Around – Rs 16000 and more buy on dip Rs 14000.
Target – Rs 21000
Stop loss – Rs 11000
Turmeric Futures: Confirmed Monthly Breakout with Clear Trade Strategies
Turmeric futures have already confirmed a decisive breakout above the 16,000 level, which
was a key resistance zone on the monthly time frame. This breakout validates the completion
of a well-defined Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern, signaling a strong shift from long-term
consolidation to a sustained bullish trend. As long as prices sustain above the breakout zone,
the upside potential remains intact.
Currently, the CMP is around 16,200, indicating healthy acceptance above support levels. If
the breakout sustains, the positional target is projected near 21000 , based on the classical
measured-move method of the pattern.
Two structured trading approaches can be followed:
1) Breakout Buy Strategy:
Traders can initiate fresh long positions near the current market price, around 16,000,
aligning with the post-breakout continuation zone.
2) Buy on Dip Strategy:
In case of any corrective decline, the 14,000 level remains an ideal buy-on-dip zone, as it
coincides with prior demand and post-breakout support on the higher time frame.
For both strategies, a common stop loss below 11,000 is recommended. A breakdown below
this level would invalidate the bullish structure and weaken the long-term outlook.
Overall, the trend remains strongly bullish on the monthly chart, and traders are advised to
follow disciplined position sizing and risk management while participating in this move.
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Conclusion
Turmeric futures continue to display a strong bullish structure on the monthly time frame,
supported by a confirmed breakout above the critical 16,000 level. The successful
completion of the inverse head and shoulder pattern highlights a clear shift in long-term
market sentiment. As long as prices sustain above the breakout zone, the probability of
further upside remains high.
Both strategies—buying on breakout near 16,000 and accumulating on dips around 14,000—
offer favorable risk-to-reward opportunities when paired with a strict stop loss below 11,000.
With disciplined risk management and patience, traders can position themselves to
participate in the projected positional upside towards 21,000 while aligning with the
prevailing long-term trend.
The sharp rise in Turmeric prices over the last two to three years is primarily driven by
tightening supply against steadily rising demand. On the supply side, India’s turmeric
production fell from about 11.6 lakh tonnes in 2022–23 to nearly 10.7 lakh tonnes in 2023–
24, a decline of roughly 8%, due to lower acreage, erratic monsoon conditions, and higher
input costs. Although production recovered to around 11.5 lakh tonnes in 2024–25, this
recovery has not been strong enough to create surplus stocks. At the same time, monthly
arrivals data show that peak arrivals are increasingly concentrated in February–April, with
lean-season arrivals dropping sharply, tightening physical availability for most of the year.
This reduced market supply has pushed futures prices from sub-₹9,000 levels in 2020–21 to
highs near ₹19,000 in 2024, before consolidating around ₹15,500–16,000.
On the demand side, structural growth has supported higher price levels. Export demand has
remained firm, with India exporting roughly 15–18% of its production annually, while
domestic demand from food processing, pharma, and nutraceutical segments has grown
steadily. Pharma and curcumin-related demand is expanding at an estimated 8–12% per year
globally, diverting higher-quality turmeric into extraction and reducing availability for the
spot market. Rising production costs have also lifted the price floor, as farmers face higher
labour, fertiliser, and irrigation expenses, making lower price levels unsustainable. Together,
constrained supply growth, stronger value-added demand, and higher cost structures explain
why turmeric prices have moved into a higher long-term trading range rather than reverting
to earlier lows.
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