10-02-2026
Oil Market Balances Risk and Supply
Oil prices have also found
some support from the supply side. Recent easing in tensions around Iran has
reduced the immediate risk of a US military strike, which initially lowered the
geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. However, this relief did not last
long, as attention quickly shifted back to supply-related concerns. One key
issue is Kazakhstan, where crude exports could be around 35% lower than planned
this month due to slow recovery at the Tengiz oil field. Lower exports through
the CPC pipeline and the Black Sea are tightening near-term oil availability.
At the same time, India is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian crude
and sourcing oil from other suppliers, which is reshaping global oil flows and
adding further pressure on supply. These factors are limiting the downside in
oil prices, even as Iran-related tensions ease.
10-02-2026
Key points covered
1. US–Iran Tensions Create Uncertainty
2.
Supply Situation Keeps Oil Prices Under Control
1. US–Iran Tensions Create Uncertainty
The main reason behind recent market movement is rising tension between the United States and Iran. The US has advised ships to be careful near Iranian waters. This has drawn attention to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil routes in the world. A large portion of global oil supply passes through this narrow route every day.
Iran has said it will reduce its 60% enriched uranium only if all economic sanctions are fully removed. The country has made it clear that partial sanctions relief is not acceptable. This stance keeps nuclear talks uncertain and continues to add geopolitical risk to the market.
Whenever there is news of tension in this region, traders worry that oil supply could be affected. Because of this fear, prices moved up earlier. However, since there has been no actual blockage or supply cut, the market has cooled slightly.
2. Supply Situation Keeps Oil Prices Under Control
At the moment, the global oil supply remains stable. There are no signs of shipping disruptions, production cuts, or export stoppages anywhere in the market. Oil continues to flow normally, and this is an important reason why prices are not rising sharply. At the same time, ongoing talks between the US and Iran are helping ease fears, as they suggest the situation may not escalate quickly.
Because of this, oil prices are drifting slightly lower. The market is staying calm and is responding more to actual supply conditions rather than headlines or speculation.
Looking at the broader supply picture, Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian oil, which could affect supply in the future. However, for now, oil availability remains comfortable. Large oil-importing countries like India are actively securing crude from alternative regions such as West Africa and the Middle East. This shift in sourcing shows that buyers are prepared and flexible.
10-02-2026
Conclusion
Oil prices are moving lower because there is no real supply problem right now. Even though there are tensions and risks in the background, oil is still flowing normally. Talks between the US and Iran and steady global supply are helping keep the situation calm. Since there is no major disruption, prices are staying under control and are reacting more to actual supply conditions than to fear.
10-02-2026
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