25-06-2026

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The natural gas market is currently undergoing a transition, shifting from a supply-driven scenario toward a more balanced supply-demand structure. Although US production remains near record levels and storage inventories are adequate, recent data indicates a gradual strengthening of demand. The EIA`s latest storage injection report showed a figure of 73 Bcf lower than market expectations and significantly below the previous week`s 108 Bcf suggesting a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.

On the macroeconomic front, easing tensions between the US and Iran have reduced the geopolitical risk premium in the energy sector, leading to a drop in crude oil prices and diminished speculative interest in energy commodities. Additionally, improvements in global shipping conditions have alleviated concerns regarding LNG supply disruptions, thereby limiting the potential for a sharp rise in natural gas prices.

Despite these bearish macroeconomic factors, above-normal temperatures across key US regions are sustaining cooling demand. High electricity consumption for air conditioning is driving increased natural gas usage by power generators, consuming a significant portion of available supplies. This strength in demand is clearly reflected in the recent decline in storage injections and the improving supply-demand balance.

25-06-2026

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Global markets are adjusting to an environment of easing geopolitical tensions and a strengthening US dollar. The Federal Reserve`s hawkish stance is supporting higher interest rates, thereby exerting pressure on commodities. While China`s stimulus measures are bolstering industrial demand, global growth remains uneven. In the case of natural gas, robust production and ample inventories are outweighing seasonal demand, keeping the overall outlook neutral to slightly bearish.

·         The easing of tensions between the US and Iran has reduced the risk premium in the energy sector.

·         The sharp drop in crude oil prices has also impacted overall sentiment in the energy market, including natural gas.

·         Disruptions to shipping and logistics in the Middle East are subsiding, leading to reduced interest in speculative buying

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25-06-2026

DEMAND ANALYSIS

·         Demand for cooling remains high in many parts of the US due to above-normal temperatures.

·         Increased use of air conditioning is driving up electricity consumption.

·         Rising demand for power generation is boosting natural gas consumption.

·         High demand has slowed the pace of gas injection into storage.

SUPPLY ANALYSIS

·         Natural gas production in the U.S. remains robust, ensuring a healthy market supply.

·         The latest EIA storage injection came in at 73 Bcf, falling short of the market expectation of 82 Bcf.

·         The storage build was also lower than the previous week`s injection of 108 Bcf.

·         The slower rise in inventory indicates that supplies are not accumulating as rapidly during the injection season as previously seen.

The declining trend in storage injections indicates improving demand-supply fundamentals in the natural gas market. Although storage inventories remain at comfortable levels, the pace of inventory growth has slowed in recent weeks, reflecting stronger seasonal demand. As a result, near-term market sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish, particularly if upcoming EIA storage builds continue to come in below market expectations.

25-06-2026

NATURAL GAS STORAGE and HISTORIC TREND ANALYSIS

25-06-2026

Key Observations

Recent EIA data indicates a steady decline in storage injections—dropping from 108 Bcf to 73 Bcf—with market expectations pointing to a further decrease to 67 Bcf. This trend reflects rising natural gas demand relative to supply, driven by increased cooling needs during the summer and higher consumption in the power sector. Although overall storage levels remain adequate, the slower pace of inventory accumulation is providing support to natural gas prices and bolstering market sentiment for the near term.

Overall, the storage outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish, supported by slowing inventory growth, seasonal cooling demand, and improving demand-supply dynamics.

25-06-2026

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The natural gas market has transitioned from the winter withdrawal season to the summer injection season, with inventories steadily rising. However, recent EIA data indicates a slowdown in the pace of storage injections, suggesting that rising summer cooling demand is consuming a significant portion of available supply.

Above-normal temperatures across key US regions are driving up electricity consumption for air conditioning, thereby boosting natural gas demand from power generators. While inventory levels remain healthy, the deceleration in storage injections points toward a better balance between supply and demand.

25-06-2026

CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE

The Natural Gas market is currently transitioning from a supply-dominated phase toward a more balanced demand-supply environment. While U.S. production remains strong and storage levels are comfortable, the pace of storage injections has slowed considerably in recent weeks, indicating improving demand conditions.

The latest storage trend:

• June 11: 108 Bcf
• June 18: 73 Bcf
• June 25 Forecast: 67 Bcf

This declining injection pattern suggests that cooling demand is absorbing a larger share of available supply, reducing the surplus that was evident earlier in the injection season.

25-06-2026

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Levels

§  Resistance: 325 in MCX

§  Support: 285 in MCX

A buying position can be considered on dips or sustained trading around ₹295. This setup offers an attractive risk-reward profile for traders looking to participate in the broader uptrend. The stop-loss should be placed below 285, while the target remains ₹310 +. Sustained strength above ₹285 could gradually attract fresh buying interest and support a move toward the target zone.

25-06-2026

DETAILS OF RESEARCH ANALYST