16-04-2026

Executive Summary  

Natural gas outlook remains bearish in the short term due to higher storage injections (+55 Bcf) weak seasonal demand, and unusually warm weather reducing consumption, while supply remains ample although geopolitical risks offer limited support overall market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to face selling pressure on rallies favoring a sell-on-rise strategy unless key resistance levels are broken.

16-04-2026

U.S. Storage and Inventories

·         Current levels:
Last week came in at +50 Bcf, and this week is forecast at +55 Bcf, which means the market is expecting a larger injection into storage. All else equal, a bigger build signalslooser supply/weaker demand, which is typically bearish for natural gas futures.

·         Change of seasons:
The heating season is over and injections are about to start. The EIA says that inventories are "essentially in line with five-year levels" and that injections are expected to start very soon. In other words, there is enough supply and demand is falling, which means that there will be a loose balance going into spring. The EIA`s outlook assumes that there will be more injections this year because oil activity is rising. It also predicts that storage will end in October 2026 near the five-year average.

16-04-2026

Weather and Demand Forecasts

·         Record warmth:
March 2026 has been unusually warm. NOAA reports the U.S. average temperature was about 9.4°F above the 20th-century norm the warmest March on record. Most of the country (from coast to coast) saw far-above-normal highs, dramatically cutting space-heating needs late in the season.

Looking ahead, demand may improve in the winter months, particularly due to increased LNG export needs following recent supply disruptions in the Middle East. However, for the near term, the market remains well supplied, weather patterns are stable, and the outlook remains bearish. Overall, any short-term price strength is expected to be temporary and could present opportunities for sellers.

·         Short-term outlook:
In early March, NOAA and other forecasters projected above normal temperatures over much of the U.S. into mid-March. This pattern persisted: mild weather dominated, with only brief localized cold outbreaks (e.g. an early-March Arctic surge in the East) and intense heat domes in the West. Overall, heating degree-days (HDDs) have been far below normal and cooling degree-days (CDDs) are beginning to creep up, especially in the South and Southwest. The ongoing warmth erodes late-season heating demand and is one of the key factors suppressing prices today.

Demand for natural gas is still very low right now, mostly because of the weather in the U.S. Because the weather is mild this spring, there isn`t much need for heating or cooling, which limits how much people and businesses use. This time of year has always been a time when demand for natural gas is low, and the current situation fits that pattern. Because of this, any price increases, especially those that get close to the important $3.00/MMBtu level, are likely to face resistance and may even lead to selling pressure.

16-04-2026

Geopolitical Risks

The conflict in the Middle East is still messing up energy flows. Along with the attacks in Qatar, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (which is important for LNG shipments) is still at risk because of the fighting in Iran. Russia`s role is less important now that Europe is almost cut off from Russian pipeline gas (TurkStream is the only live EU route) and has mostly switched to LNG and other sources. (No new major problems in the U.S. this week have been reported.) In short, global supply risks, especially in Qatar and Iran, keep prices high even though domestic fundamentals stay weak.

16-04-2026

Prices and Trader Sentiment

The price of petrol in the U.S. has gone down. Late-week NYMEX April futures were around $3.10/MMBtu (Mar 19 data), which is much lower than the highs of winter. Analysts say that prices are being held back by high production and mild weather, but geopolitical shocks give prices a little boost now and then. EnergyEdge says that the only good thing that has happened lately is that geopolitical tensions (in Qatar and the Middle East) have risen. However, "underlying domestic fundamentals remain relatively soft." The market has been up and down. For example, on March 24, futures rose after a colder forecast was made. Overall, traders are cautious or bearish. The general opinion is that the market has enough supply and prices will stay low until spring unless there is another cold snap or a major global outage.

16-04-2026

Technical Analysis

In Comex Natural Gas (XNGUSD) chart is making a falling wedge on higher time frame but this is weekly report we can just follow the market structure that is lower highs & lower lows, so we can continue the sell on rise strategy as long as resistance of 2.8$ is not decisively broken.

and in MCX Natural gas, we can continue the same sell on rise strategy as long as resistance of 256 is not decisively broken.
second scenario would be market gives decisive breakout above 256 then we can start buy on dips strategy, in which 255-250 will be good buying range with positional stoploss of 229.

16-04-2026

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