18-06-2026
Natural Gas at a Crossroads: Strong Demand vs. Rising Supply
Factors such as strong LNG exports from the U.S., rising electricity demand, an increasing
reliance upon AI to manage power
consumption, and ongoing geopolitical events restricting global supply will
likely help support the price of natural gas through 2026. For the foreseeable
future, they will help to create favorable conditions in the market.
Let’s deep dive into the factors of Natural Gas
Morgan Stanley: Natural Gas Prices Likely to Stay Supported in the Near
Term
According to Morgan
Stanley`s forecast, the stability of natural gas prices through Quarter 3
will be driven by the tightening of supply, increase in LNG exports, and strong seasonal demand. Even with continued
volatility in the natural gas market, all of these factors will work to help
create and maintain market equilibrium.
Morgan Stanley has a more positive outlook for natural gas after 2027, as it is
anticipated that more supplies will be available starting next year as a result
of greater production. As output increases, long-term pricing pressure will be
alleviated and supply tightness will also be diminished.
While the added supply will create a more relaxed supply environment in 2027,
the overall picture indicates that natural gas prices will be relatively stable
in the near term.
18-06-2026
Weekly Analysis
Strong Weather-Driven Demand Outlook
Drives Natural Gas Increases
Despite a larger-than-anticipated storage build, natural gas prices increased
as traders concentrated on predictions of hotter
weather throughout the United States, which might greatly increase the need
for electricity for air conditioning.
Expectations that power generators will
burn more natural gas during the summer cooling season contributed to
higher prices.
Production has somewhat decreased from recent record highs, despite storage
stockpiles rising and staying above average. In June, U.S. Lower-48 gas output averaged roughly 109 Bcf/day, which was lower
than May levels and helped allay some worries about oversupply.
Forecasts for the weather show above-average
temperatures until late June, which will encourage utilities to use more gas.
As the need for cooling increases, demand—including
exports—is also anticipated to climb in the upcoming weeks.
However, storage inventories that are still higher than the five-year average
continue to provide a bearish overhang for the market. Unless the summer heat
turns out to be more intense than anticipated, higher inventories and forecasts
for increasing U.S. production later in 2026 may limit the gains.
Greece Authorizes the Expansion of
the Chevron Offshore Gas Block
Greece has given the go-ahead for American energy giant Chevron to acquire a 70% operational share in an offshore natural
gas exploration zone southwest of the nation, with HelleniQ Energy holding the remaining 30%.
Chevron`s
footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean energy sector is strengthened by the
approval, which enables it to spearhead exploratory operations in the Ionian
Sea. As part of Europe`s endeavor to diversify its natural gas supply sources,
the block is regarded as strategically significant.
With agreements for more deep-sea exploration blocks off Greece, Chevron has
also been increasing its presence in neighboring offshore regions, suggesting a
more comprehensive long-term exploration plan in the area.
18-06-2026
Qatar Energy Ready to Restore LNG Output Within a Month
Qatar Energy expects that undamaged facilities will be back to normal full production in less than one year, and the company is preparing to quickly resume liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at its Ras Laffan facilities. In light of the recent crisis in Iran and supply chain issues in the Strait of Hormuz, operations were halted.
Logistics, rather than production, is now the major
challenge. Before Qatar can ship LNG again, the Strait of Hormuz must reopen, and
tanker traffic must resume.
Iranian missile attacks on two of Qatar`s 14 LNG liquefaction trains and one gas-to-liquids plant have caused about 17 percent of Qatar`s LNG export capability to be lost; damage will take several years to fix.
Overall, good news for the natural gas market is that as shipping conditions get better, Qatar`s LNG exports could increase, thus enhancing global supply.
18-06-2026
Following the U.S.-Iran peace deal, European gas prices are close to one-month lows.
After a peace deal between the United States and Iran eased concerns about supply interruptions from the Middle East, European natural gas prices fell to about one-month lows. The "risk premium" that had been included into prices during previous conflict worries was swiftly removed by dealers when geopolitical tensions subsided.
As markets responded to anticipation that LNG shipments through important
channels like the Strait of Hormuz would resume, the benchmark Dutch TTF gas
price plummeted by roughly 2–6%. The prospects for the world`s gas supply were
enhanced by this. Since the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of LNG exports
worldwide, any stability in this area immediately allays European concerns
about supply danger.
18-06-2026
Natural Gas Declines with Increased Storage and
Moderate Increase in Production
While
storage stockpiles were comfortably above typical seasonal levels, output
slightly increased, putting pressure on U.S. natural gas prices. Despite
predictions of high summer cooling demand, the market concentrated on plentiful
supply.
In June, the Lower 48 states in the United States produced an average of 109
Bcf of gas each day, while total stockpiles were approximately 2.58 Tcf, or 138
Bcf more than the five-year average. Elevated storage levels indicated that the
supply is still adequate despite rising temperatures.
Lower LNG export demand was another negative effect, since feedgas volumes were
lower than recent record levels due to maintenance at major export terminals
like Golden Pass and Freeport.
Forecasts continue to call for hotter-than-normal weather throughout much of
the United States, which could limit the downside.
18-06-2026
Inventory
lookout
· The market is currently focused on whether storage growth is slowing amid summer cooling demand and LNG export strength.
· The report will be a key indicator for assessing the
balance between supply growth, weather-driven demand, and inventory trends
heading into the peak summer season.
18-06-2026
Technical Analysis
§ Resistance: 325 in MCX and $3.40 in Comex
§ Support: 280-275 in MCX and $2.90 in Comex
with prices holding firmly above the crucial support zone of ₹280–275. This zone has emerged as a strong demand area, attracting buying interest and providing a solid base for the ongoing uptrend. As long as prices sustain above this support range, the overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive.
Traders may consider initiating fresh buying positions in the ₹280–275 zone, which offers a favorable risk-reward opportunity within the prevailing trend. The support zone at ₹280–275 is expected to act as a cushion against downside pressure and could encourage renewed buying activity on dips.
On the upside, ₹325 stands as the immediate resistance level and the first target for the current bullish setup. A sustained move toward this level would confirm continued strength in the market. If buying momentum remains strong and prices successfully overcome the ₹325 resistance, further upside beyond ₹325 can be anticipated, opening the door for an extended rally.