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Introduction
In today’s globalized world, events happening in one part of the world can easily affect other countries. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially involving countries like Iran and the United States, is a good example of this. While the conflict is happening far from India, its impact is being felt strongly in India’s agriculture sector. One of the major concerns is the disruption in the supply of fertilizers and pesticides, which are essential for farming. This situation is creating challenges for farmers and raising concerns about food security in the country.
Disruption in Fertilizer and Pesticide Supply
ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disturbed the
global supply of fertilizers and pesticides, which are very important for
farming. Many of these products are transported through key routes like the
Strait of Hormuz, and around 70% of India’s fertilizer imports come from
countries near this region. India is highly dependent on imports, with nearly
40-50% of its urea and DAP coming from the Middle East, and in some cases, even
up to 70% of urea imports coming from countries like Oman and Saudi Arabia. Due
to rising tensions and security risks, shipping activities have slowed down,
making routes unsafe and increasing transportation costs. This has created
delays in delivery and reduced the overall supply reaching India. Since
agriculture depends heavily on timely availability of these inputs, even small
disruptions can create big problems for farmers during the sowing season.
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India’s Dependence on Imports
India relies heavily on imports to meet its fertilizer
needs, especially for products like urea and DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate). A
large portion of these imports comes from regions connected to the Middle East.
Because of this dependency, any conflict in that region directly affects India.
When supply chains break or become slow, India cannot get enough fertilizers on
time. This shows how vulnerable the country is to global events and highlights
the need to reduce dependence on imports in the long run.
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Rising Prices and Farmer Burden
One of the biggest impacts of the
supply disruption is the increase in prices of fertilizers and pesticides.
After the Middle East conflict, global fertilizer prices have increased by up
to 40%, mainly due to higher natural gas costs and supply shortages. Urea
prices have risen nearly 30% in a month and almost doubled compared to last
year, while DAP prices have touched around $760 per tons in international
markets. In India, although the government is providing fertilizers at
subsidized rates like ₹266 per bag for urea and ₹1350 for DAP, the actual
import cost has increased significantly due to higher global prices and freight
charges. As a result, the government’s fertilizer subsidy has increased to
around ₹1.86 lakh crore. Despite this support, farmers are still facing
indirect pressure because availability is uncertain and input costs are rising.
This creates financial stress, especially for small and marginal farmers, and
may reduce their profit margins.
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Impact on Crop Production
If farmers are not able to use the required amount of fertilizers and pesticides, it directly affects crop growth and productivity. Studies show that proper fertilizer use can increase crop yields by 20% to 50%, and on average, fertilizers contribute to around 40–60% of total crop production. Research also shows that fertilizer application alone can improve yields by nearly 30%, and globally, it has played a role in increasing crop production by almost 50%. This clearly means that without sufficient use of fertilizers, crop yields can fall sharply. Fertilizers help in improving soil nutrients, while pesticides protect crops from insects and diseases. Without proper use of these inputs, crop yields may decrease significantly. Lower production means less supply of food grains in the market, which can create imbalance, higher prices, and even food shortages in the future.
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Risk to Food Security
A decline in crop production can lead to serious food
security issues in a country like India, where a large population depends on
agriculture. According to FAO data, global food prices have already started
increasing, with the Food Price Index reaching 125.3 points in February 2026
due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Experts warn that
fertilizer shortages can reduce yields of major crops like wheat, rice, and
maize, which directly affects food availability.
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At the same time, rising fuel and fertilizer costs are
increasing farming expenses, and these higher costs are passed on to consumers
in the form of higher food prices. Globally, around 318 million people are
already facing acute hunger, and conflict is responsible for nearly 69% of food
insecurity. In India alone, about 195 million people are undernourished,
showing how vulnerable the country is. If production decreases and demand
remains high, food prices may rise further, making basic food items expensive
and difficult to afford, especially for low-income families. In the long term,
this situation can create serious economic and social challenges, making food
security a major concern.
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Even though official data shows that India has
adequate fertilizer stocks, the main problem lies in distribution at the ground
level. Reports suggest that while buffer stocks are maintained, many dealers
and rural suppliers receive lower quantities than required, leading to
shortages in local markets. This creates difficulties for farmers, especially
during the sowing season. At the same time, global supply disruptions and
higher freight costs have increased the overall import burden. To manage this
situation, the government has significantly increased its fertilizer subsidy to
around ₹1.86 lakh crore, so that farmers can continue to get fertilizers at
affordable prices despite rising international costs. India is also
diversifying its import sources by procuring fertilizers from countries like
Russia, Morocco, and Canada to reduce dependency on the Middle East.
Additionally, experts suggest long-term solutions such as promoting organic
farming, reducing dependence on chemical fertilizers, and increasing domestic
production. These steps can help improve supply stability and make India’s
agriculture sector more resilient to global disruptions.
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Conclusion
The Middle East conflict clearly shows how global
issues can directly impact India’s agriculture sector. From supply disruptions
to rising costs and risks to food security, the effects are serious and
wide-reaching. It is important for India to focus on both short-term solutions
and long-term strategies to protect its farmers and ensure stable food
production in the future.