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Impact of Middle East Conflict on India’s Agriculture sector

06-04-2026

Introduction

In today’s globalized world, events happening in one part of the world can easily affect other countries. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially involving countries like Iran and the United States, is a good example of this. While the conflict is happening far from India, its impact is being felt strongly in India’s agriculture sector. One of the major concerns is the disruption in the supply of fertilizers and pesticides, which are essential for farming. This situation is creating challenges for farmers and raising concerns about food security in the country.


Disruption in Fertilizer and Pesticide Supply

ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disturbed the global supply of fertilizers and pesticides, which are very important for farming. Many of these products are transported through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and around 70% of India’s fertilizer imports come from countries near this region. India is highly dependent on imports, with nearly 40-50% of its urea and DAP coming from the Middle East, and in some cases, even up to 70% of urea imports coming from countries like Oman and Saudi Arabia. Due to rising tensions and security risks, shipping activities have slowed down, making routes unsafe and increasing transportation costs. This has created delays in delivery and reduced the overall supply reaching India. Since agriculture depends heavily on timely availability of these inputs, even small disruptions can create big problems for farmers during the sowing season.


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India’s Dependence on Imports

India relies heavily on imports to meet its fertilizer needs, especially for products like urea and DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate). A large portion of these imports comes from regions connected to the Middle East. Because of this dependency, any conflict in that region directly affects India. When supply chains break or become slow, India cannot get enough fertilizers on time. This shows how vulnerable the country is to global events and highlights the need to reduce dependence on imports in the long run.


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Rising Prices and Farmer Burden 

One of the biggest impacts of the supply disruption is the increase in prices of fertilizers and pesticides. After the Middle East conflict, global fertilizer prices have increased by up to 40%, mainly due to higher natural gas costs and supply shortages. Urea prices have risen nearly 30% in a month and almost doubled compared to last year, while DAP prices have touched around $760 per tons in international markets. In India, although the government is providing fertilizers at subsidized rates like ₹266 per bag for urea and ₹1350 for DAP, the actual import cost has increased significantly due to higher global prices and freight charges. As a result, the government’s fertilizer subsidy has increased to around ₹1.86 lakh crore. Despite this support, farmers are still facing indirect pressure because availability is uncertain and input costs are rising. This creates financial stress, especially for small and marginal farmers, and may reduce their profit margins.



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Impact on Crop Production

If farmers are not able to use the required amount of fertilizers and pesticides, it directly affects crop growth and productivity. Studies show that proper fertilizer use can increase crop yields by 20% to 50%, and on average, fertilizers contribute to around 40–60% of total crop production. Research also shows that fertilizer application alone can improve yields by nearly 30%, and globally, it has played a role in increasing crop production by almost 50%. This clearly means that without sufficient use of fertilizers, crop yields can fall sharply. Fertilizers help in improving soil nutrients, while pesticides protect crops from insects and diseases. Without proper use of these inputs, crop yields may decrease significantly. Lower production means less supply of food grains in the market, which can create imbalance, higher prices, and even food shortages in the future.

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Risk to Food Security

A decline in crop production can lead to serious food security issues in a country like India, where a large population depends on agriculture. According to FAO data, global food prices have already started increasing, with the Food Price Index reaching 125.3 points in February 2026 due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Experts warn that fertilizer shortages can reduce yields of major crops like wheat, rice, and maize, which directly affects food availability.


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At the same time, rising fuel and fertilizer costs are increasing farming expenses, and these higher costs are passed on to consumers in the form of higher food prices. Globally, around 318 million people are already facing acute hunger, and conflict is responsible for nearly 69% of food insecurity. In India alone, about 195 million people are undernourished, showing how vulnerable the country is. If production decreases and demand remains high, food prices may rise further, making basic food items expensive and difficult to afford, especially for low-income families. In the long term, this situation can create serious economic and social challenges, making food security a major concern.


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Even though official data shows that India has adequate fertilizer stocks, the main problem lies in distribution at the ground level. Reports suggest that while buffer stocks are maintained, many dealers and rural suppliers receive lower quantities than required, leading to shortages in local markets. This creates difficulties for farmers, especially during the sowing season. At the same time, global supply disruptions and higher freight costs have increased the overall import burden. To manage this situation, the government has significantly increased its fertilizer subsidy to around ₹1.86 lakh crore, so that farmers can continue to get fertilizers at affordable prices despite rising international costs. India is also diversifying its import sources by procuring fertilizers from countries like Russia, Morocco, and Canada to reduce dependency on the Middle East. Additionally, experts suggest long-term solutions such as promoting organic farming, reducing dependence on chemical fertilizers, and increasing domestic production. These steps can help improve supply stability and make India’s agriculture sector more resilient to global disruptions.

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Conclusion

The Middle East conflict clearly shows how global issues can directly impact India’s agriculture sector. From supply disruptions to rising costs and risks to food security, the effects are serious and wide-reaching. It is important for India to focus on both short-term solutions and long-term strategies to protect its farmers and ensure stable food production in the future.


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