16-02-2026

A softer than expected inflation reading in the U.S. increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further this year, with markets now pricing in a little more than two rate cuts. Investors are closely watching key events such as the FOMC meeting minutes, the U.S. GDP advance estimate, and PCE inflation data to understand when the next rate cut could happen. Since lower interest rates generally weaken the dollar and reduce bond yields, this backdrop is supportive for gold. However, despite these positive triggers, gold prices are currently trading in a sideways range near the $5,000 level, and the market is not giving a clear directional signal yet.

At the same time, gold and silver stayed supported due to a mix of dip-buying, a weaker dollar, and rising geopolitical tensions especially around U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and U.S.-led negotiations to end the Ukraine war. Even though precious metals remained below their late January highs and saw sharp price swings recently, safe-haven demand continued because of ongoing uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and investors moving away from sovereign bonds and currencies. Gold’s decline from late January peaks was also influenced by concerns that U.S. monetary policy may stay tighter for longer after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, as he was seen as less dovish than markets expected.

16-02-2026

China Gold Market Update: Strong Investment-Led Start to 2026

China’s gold market started 2026 with strong momentum, mainly due to high investment demand and continued buying by the central bank. The biggest highlight was gold ETFs, which saw heavy inflows of around RMB 44 billion (about US$6.2 billion) in January, adding nearly 38 tonnes to holdings. As a result, ETF assets under management moved to record levels, showing that investors preferred goldbacked products during uncertain market conditions. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak to the 15th straight month, adding about 1.2 tonnes in January. China’s total official gold reserves are now close to 2,308 tonnes, making up around 10% of its foreign exchange reserves.

Overall, China’s gold demand in early 2026 is being driven more by investment and institutional buying rather than jewellery consumption. Strong ETF inflows, active futures participation, and steady central bank purchases indicate that gold continues to be seen as an important hedge against economic and financial uncertainty. Even if jewellery demand stays weak due to high prices, the investment side of the market remains supportive for gold in the coming months.

16-02-2026

Events to watchout for:

1.Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes: The FOMC held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January meeting. Markets want to know how members arrived at the decision in terms of employment and inflation and what their deliberations tell us about a post-Powell Fed.

2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Core PCE: The Fed prefers PCE over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation. Following a hot January jobs report, the January CPI report came in cooler than expected, with year-over-year core CPI rising at its slowest pace since March 2021.

3. US labor market stabilizing; housing sector still subdued: The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased less than expected last week, but the decline was consistent with economists` view that the labor market was stabilizing after hitting a soft patch last year. Economists said the Trump administration`s trade and immigration policies were constraining the labor market, mostly through tepid hiring, though they were optimistic employment growth would pick up this year partly because of tax cuts.

16-02-2026

Physical Demand:
Physical gold demand in India has been relatively weak due to record-high prices, which has reduced jewellery buying even during wedding and festival seasons. The World Gold Council noted that India’s gold consumption fell around 11% last year, as high prices discouraged buyers, although investment demand in coins and bars improved. Recent Reuters updates also showed gold trading at discounts in India, reflecting soft retail demand and cautious buying behaviour.

In China, physical demand has remained stronger, supported by festive buying ahead of the Lunar New Year. Gold often traded at a premium over global prices, showing steady interest in bullion. The Shanghai Gold Exchange continues to be a key indicator of real physical demand, as its structure is based on physical settlement and withdrawals, which reflect actual gold movement in the market.

16-02-2026

Mining Supply Side:

Global gold miners are seeing a stable supply outlook for 2025–26, with production expected to grow only slightly and mostly remain in line with company guidance. Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, reported steady operations and kept its 2025 production outlook unchanged. However, it indicated that 2026 production may stay in a similar range but slightly lower, mainly because of mine sequencing changes and transitions at some key sites. The company is also focusing on cost control and portfolio improvements to protect margins in 2026.

16-02-2026

Central Bank in 2026:

For the first time in nearly three decades, foreign central banks now hold a greater share of gold than U.S. Treasuries in their reserve portfolios, marking a historic turning point in global reserve management. From 2021 to 2025, gold’s share steadily increased from 13% to 24%, while U.S. debt holdings declined from 28% to 23%, reflecting a clear structural rebalancing. This shift has been driven by rising geopolitical tensions, concerns over expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, sanctions risks, and growing efforts by emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey to diversify away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Gold’s appeal lies in its status as a neutral, inflation-resistant, and counterparty-risk-free asset, making it an effective hedge against currency volatility and financial instability. With gold prices reaching record highs in early 2026 amid strong safe-haven demand, central banks are reinforcing its role as a strategic store of value, signaling a gradual move toward a more diversified and multipolar global reserve system

16-02-2026

Global Gold ETF Flows – January 2026
According to the World Gold Council, global physically backed gold ETFs saw a record-breaking start to 2026. In January 2026, total net inflows reached around US$19 billion, the highest ever for a single month. This pushed global gold ETF AUM to nearly US$669 billion and total holdings rose by about 120 tonnes to ~4,145 tonnes, both new all-time highs. This strong buying continued even though gold prices corrected slightly toward the end of the month, showing that investors still viewed gold as a key hedge during uncertainty.

Region-wise, the demand was broad and strong. Asia led inflows with ~US$10 billion, driven mainly by China (~US$6 billion), while India added ~US$2.5 billion. North America recorded ~US$7 billion, showing strong institutional participation. Europe also remained positive for the third month in a row, while other regions saw small inflows. Overall, the data confirms that gold ETFs remain one of the preferred investment options when investors want safety, diversification, and protection against volatility.

16-02-2026

Technical Analysis
COMEX GOLD:

Gold is trading in a range near $5000, capped by strong resistance at $5120 and supported near $4900. Fresh buying should be considered only after a clean break and hold above $5120 (4H close), which would confirm bullish strength and open upside targets. But if $4900 breaks, it signals weakness and gold can slide towards $4800 and then $4700, so the best setup is to trade only after a confirmed breakout or breakdown.

16-02-2026

MCX GOLD:

MCX Gold is currently trading in a range, with strong resistance near ₹161,000 and key support around ₹148,000. Fresh buying should be considered only if price breaks and sustains above ₹161,000, which would confirm continuation of the bullish trend. The trend remains bullish as long as ₹148,000 support holds, but if this level breaks, it can trigger further downside. For any long/buy positions, the safest stop loss should be placed below ₹148,000.

16-02-2026

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