15-12-2025

The global gold market remains strategically important as central banks, led by China and other major economies, steadily increase their holdings to reduce reliance on the US dollar and diversify reserves. This consistent accumulation, combined with strong ETF inflows and accommodative monetary policies worldwide, continues to support gold prices even amid market volatility. In India, domestic gold has reached record highs, though physical demand has softened slightly due to elevated prices. Meanwhile, BRICS nations’ focus on gold accumulation and de-dollarization highlights a shift toward a multipolar monetary system, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. Investor interest in silver is also rising, supported by strong industrial demand and supply constraints, while interest rate cuts provide additional tailwinds for both metals.

CHINA’S GOLD STRATEGY AND ITS MARKET IMPLICATIONS China’s

continuous buying of gold is a long-term strategic move aimed at reducing dependence on the US dollar rather than reacting to short-term price movements. By increasing central-bank reserves and retaining most of its domestic gold production, China is steadily tightening global supply. This creates consistent underlying demand in the gold market. At the same time, gold is being positioned as a strategic reserve asset in a changing global financial system. Central banks buy gold regardless of price levels, which provides strong long-term support to prices. As a result, gold prices tend to remain firm, and market corrections are usually short-lived. Overall, China’s actions highlight a broader shift toward currency diversification and a multipolar monetary system. In this environment, gold is regaining importance as a stable store of value, supporting the ongoing bullion boom.

GOLD MARKET REPORT: CENTRAL BANK ACCUMULATION TRENDS

15-12-2025

The following chart illustrates the cumulative gold purchases by central banks, based on data sourced from the World Gold Council, Money Metals, IMF, BIS, and ECB.

The chart reveals a sustained and accelerating upward trend in central bank gold buying since 2010. A significant divergence exists between the Reported Buying (blue line) and the WGC Estimated Buying (red line), which includes both reported and unreported acquisitions.

As of Q3-2025, the accumulated reported purchases stand at approximately 5,800 tonnes. In contrast, the WGC`s estimated total accumulated buying has surpassed 9,500 tonnes, indicating a substantial amount of unreported gold accumulation by central banks globally. The widening gap between the two lines suggests that unreported central bank demand is playing an increasingly important role in the gold market.

INDIA GOLD MARKET — RECORD PRICES AND WIDENING DISCOUNTS

In December 2025, domestic gold prices in India climbed to record highs, with ten grams reaching approximately ₹1,32,776 — the highest level seen in the market. Despite this strong price action, physical demand weakened, even during the typical wedding season, as many consumers pulled back due to the high cost of gold. As a result, Indian dealers widened the discount on domestic prices versus global benchmarks, offering up to about $34 per ounce

inclusive of import duties and sales levies, compared with smaller discounts in the prior week. This widening discount reflects subdued retail and jewellery buying, with store footfalls dropping sharply as buyers await price stability.

BRICS, GOLD ACCUMULATION, AND THE DE-DOLLARIZATION TREND

 

 

BRICS nations — led by major economies such as China and Russia — are increasingly accumulating gold as part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar in global finance. This shift is interpreted as a challenge to traditional dollar dominance, with BRICS central banks rapidly increasing their gold holdings to strengthen financial independence and diversify reserve assets. The expansion of the BRICS grouping to include additional members enhances the bloc’s economic weight, amplifying the potential influence of these strategies in global markets. While a fully fledged alternative global reserve currency backed by gold is not yet established, discussions around digital payment platforms and gold-related financial infrastructure signal long-term intentions to create systems that operate beyond the conventional dollar-centric framework. This evolving dynamic underscores gold’s strategic importance not only as a safe-haven asset but also as a tool in reshaping international monetary relationships amidst ongoing geopolitical realignments.

FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON GOLD

The Federal Reserve has already implemented three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, signaling a shift toward a more accommodative monetary stance. Chairman Jerome Powell has clearly indicated that further rate hikes are highly unlikely in the near term. In addition to lowering rates, the Fed has committed to purchasing approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills each month, a strategy aimed at increasing market liquidity and maintaining downward pressure on short-term yields. These measures enhance the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, providing direct support to bullion prices while reinforcing the metal’s role as a hedge against potential financial and economic uncertainties.

US POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND FED OUTLOOK

US President Donald Trump is actively considering Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting his preference for a more growth-supportive and accommodative monetary policy stance. Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the current hawkish approach of the Federal Reserve, arguing that higher interest rates restrain economic growth and financial markets. A leadership change aligned with this view could increase the likelihood of lower interest rates, greater policy flexibility, and a stronger emphasis on economic expansion. Such a shift would likely keep real yields under pressure and support liquidity conditions, factors that are traditionally favorable for gold prices and other non-yielding assets.

US LABOR MARKET WEAKNESS SUPPORTS GOLD

Weekly US unemployment figures highlighted softness in the labor market, with claims in the first week of December rising above expectations to reach a two-month high. This unexpected increase reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates in the coming months, providing a supportive environment for gold prices.

 

KEY ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH THIS WEEK

Key economic data scheduled for this week could drive volatility in gold and silver prices. On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released, where a weaker reading may support bullion prices. Tuesday remains the key event with the delayed October Non-Farm Payrolls, along with retail sales, manufacturing, services, and

unemployment data; most indicators are expected to remain weak, which could trigger a sharp upside move in gold and silver. On Thursday, October inflation data and weekly jobless claims are due, likely adding to market volatility. On Friday, November existing home sales and consumer sentiment data will be released, where a mild improvement is expected, and markets will react based on actual outcomes.

GOLD ETFS — HOLDINGS AND INVESTOR FLOWS

Physically backed gold exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) continued to attract strong investor interest through late 2025, with global inflows recorded for several consecutive months. In November 2025, gold ETFs posted their sixth straight monthly inflow, adding approximately US$5.2 billion in net investments, bringing total assets under management (AUM) to around US$530 billion and pushing overall holdings to a new month‑end record of about 3,932 tonnes. These inflows were led by strong demand from Asia, with notable contributions from China and Japan, while North American funds also maintained positive net flows and European ETFs flipped back into inflows after a period of subdued activity. Sustained bullion ETF buying reflects continued investor appetite for gold as a core strategic asset amid macroeconomic uncertainty, expectations of monetary easing, and geopolitical tensions, underscoring ETFs’ role as a significant driver of investment demand in the global gold market.

The chart shows that Asia has been the dominant contributor to global gold ETF inflows, particularly in November, highlighting strong regional demand. North America experienced mixed flows, while Europe and other regions contributed relatively smaller amounts. Overall,

global ETF inflows have grown significantly, with total year-to-date inflows reaching $77 billion. The gold price, represented by the yellow line, has steadily increased from around $1,900 per

 

ounce in early 2024 to above $4,000 per ounce by November 2025, suggesting a positive correlation between rising ETF inflows, especially from Asia, and gold price appreciation. Notably, the first half of 2024 saw net outflows of $7 billion, coinciding with slower price gains, whereas the second half of 2024 experienced $10 billion of inflows, supporting gradual price increases. This trend underscores Asia’s increasing influence on the global gold market and its role in driving gold prices higher.

 

SILVER UPDATE

Under a new PFRDA decision, pension funds can now invest in Gold and Silver ETFs, offering a safe and alternative investment option for schemes like NPS, UPS, and APY. Government pension funds have a limit of 1%, while private sector funds can invest up to 5% in total. This move is expected to provide long-term stability and potentially better returns.

 

Silver has reached record highs and still shows potential for further gains. Strong industrial demand from sectors like solar, EV, and electronics, along with supply shortages, has supported prices. Interest rate cuts are also favorable for silver. However, given the risk of volatility at these levels, waiting for some profit booking before making new purchases is advisable.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

Gold is currently trading around the 4342 level, maintaining a bullish structure on the charts. The immediate support zone is placed between 4200 and 4000, which is expected to act as a strong buying area on any corrective move. On the upside, resistance is seen near 4380, followed by a major resistance and short-term target zone around 4670. Traders may consider buying on dips in the 4200–4250 range. For short-term trades, a stop-loss is recommended below 4150, with an upside target of 4670. From a positional perspective, the broader trend remains positive, with a positional stop-loss placed at 3900 and an extended target of 5526, indicating strong upside potential over the medium to long term.

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16-12-2025

The following chart illustrates the cumulative gold purchases by central banks, based on data sourced from the World Gold Council, Money Metals, IMF, BIS, and ECB. The chart reveals a sustained and accelerating upward trend in central bank gold buying since 2010. A significant divergence exists between the Reported Buying (blue line) and the WGC Estimated Buying (red line), which includes both reported and unreported acquisitions. As of Q3-2025, the accumulated reported purchases stand at approximately 5,800 tonnes. In contrast, the WGC`s estimated total accumulated buying has surpassed 9,500 tonnes, indicating a substantial amount of unreported gold accumulation by central banks globally. The widening gap between the two lines suggests that unreported central bank demand is playing an increasingly important role in the gold market.

16-12-2025

The following chart illustrates the cumulative gold purchases by central banks, based on data sourced from the World Gold Council, Money Metals, IMF, BIS, and ECB. The chart reveals a sustained and accelerating upward trend in central bank gold buying since 2010. A significant divergence exists between the Reported Buying (blue line) and the WGC Estimated Buying (red line), which includes both reported and unreported acquisitions. As of Q3-2025, the accumulated reported purchases stand at approximately 5,800 tonnes. In contrast, the WGC`s estimated total accumulated buying has surpassed 9,500 tonnes, indicating a substantial amount of unreported gold accumulation by central banks globally. The widening gap between the two lines suggests that unreported central bank demand is playing an increasingly important role in the gold market.