22-12-2025

Gold has reached a historic milestone by touching $4,400 per ounce for the first time, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties, rising geopolitical tensions, and growing expectations of a more accommodative US monetary policy. Markets are increasingly pricing in potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts next year as inflation shows signs of easing and the labor market moderates. At the same time, improving trade prospects—particularly the proposed India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement—offer fresh growth opportunities for the Indian bullion industry. This report presents a comprehensive overview of the key macroeconomic, geopolitical, institutional, and technical factors currently influencing gold and silver prices, along with important data points that may shape near-term market direction.

22-12-2025

Gold Touches $4,400 for the First Time

Gold has reached a historic milestone, touching the $4,400 per ounce level for the first time ever. The rally is being driven by strong global demand for gold, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and rising expectations of a shift toward a more accommodative US monetary policy.

Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice next year. Signs of easing inflation and a weakening labor market have strengthened these expectations, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.

22-12-2025

Macro Focus: US Data in Spotlight

Market participants are closely monitoring the US Q3 GDP figures, scheduled for release tomorrow. This data could provide important clues about the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction. If economic slowdown signals become clearer, gold prices may receive further upside support.

Geopolitical Developments Supporting Gold

Rising global tensions continue to underpin gold prices. Increased US monitoring of vessels near Venezuela, earlier tanker seizures, and Ukraine’s attack on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean have elevated global risk perception. These developments are sustaining safe-haven demand for gold.

Institutional Outlook

According to Goldman Sachs, a combination of strong central bank buying, a dovish global monetary environment, and steady investment inflows could push gold prices toward $4,900 per ounce by December 2026.

Silver Market Update

Silver is also showing strength alongside gold and remains in a broader upward trend. Both industrial demand and investor interest continue to support silver prices, reinforcing its positive outlook.

ETF Market Update

ETF investors continue to play a supportive role in the bullion market. The steady rise in gold and silver prices, along with consistent ETF participation, suggests potential for further gains.
US ETF holdings data will be updated later today; currently, no major changes have been observed.

Weekly Gold Market Review

During the week, gold traded within a relatively narrow range of $4,300–$4,350 per ounce. Despite the consolidation, prices remained close to record highs, indicating that the bullish trend remains intact.

The decline in trading volumes is typical during the Christmas–New Year holiday period and due to year-end book closures by global funds. Market volatility is expected to remain elevated over the next two to three weeks, and traders are advised to exercise caution while taking large positions.

Concerns Over Inflation Data Reliability

US inflation data for November showed headline CPI at 2.7%, below market expectations, while core CPI eased to 2.6%. This supported gold prices by reinforcing expectations of monetary easing.

However, questions remain regarding the reliability of this data. Due to the federal shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect complete data for October, and some CPI components were based on estimates. As a result, several analysts believe the inflation figures may not fully reflect underlying price pressures.

Political Commentary & Market Impact

Last night, former President Trump stated that since coming to power, 53,000 new jobs and 8,000 construction jobs were created in North Carolina, and 150,000 individuals were removed from food assistance programs. While these remarks suggest economic improvement, the extent to which official data supports these claims remains uncertain. Such statements could create temporary pressure on gold prices.

22-12-2025

Key Data to Watch Next Week

Key US economic events next week include the Q3 GDP release on Tuesday at 7:00 PM, delayed due to the federal shutdown, where a weaker reading is expected and could provide support to gold and silver prices. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Manufacturing Index at 8:30 PM, which are expected to show a mild improvement, though markets will react to any surprise. Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Wednesday evening, offering further insight into labor market conditions. US markets will remain closed on Thursday and Friday, which may result in lower liquidity and increased volatility in bullion prices.

22-12-2025

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold remains in a bullish trend, with buying opportunities expected on dips in the $4,330–$4,300 range, while a stop-loss at $4,250 provides risk management. On the upside, prices could reach $4,440 initially and potentially move beyond $4,500 if momentum sustains. In the MCX market, traders may consider buying gold in the ₹134,300–₹134,000 range, with a stop-loss at ₹133,000 and an upside target of ₹139,000, reflecting a continued positive bias for both international and domestic bullion markets.

22-12-2025

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