22-04-2026
Executive Summary
WTI crude oil remained highly volatile during the week, trading in a wide range of $79 to $94
per barrel. Prices started near the $92-$94 zone on April 16 but declined sharply, hitting an
intraday low near $79 on April 17 due to easing geopolitical tensions, demand concerns, and
strong selling pressure. Following this sharp fall, the market rebounded as renewed supply
fears, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, supported prices and pushed them back toward
the $92-$93 range. However, resistance at higher levels and profit booking limited further
upside, and by April 22, prices stabilized near $89. Overall, the week remained highly choppy,
driven by rapid shifts in sentiment and geopolitical developments.
22-04-2026
US-Iran Tensions Keep Crude Oil Volatile
Crude oil markets remained highly sensitive to ongoing US-Iran tensions, with the Strait of
Hormuz at the centre of disruption concerns. Increased naval activity, tanker interceptions, and
restricted shipping movement created uncertainty around global supply flows. At the same
time, mixed signals from ceasefire talks and diplomatic efforts added to volatility, as optimism
around resolution was offset by continued military presence. Overall, the market remained
driven by a balance between supply risk fears and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.
22-04-2026
Russia-Ukraine Adds Oil Premium
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine added a notable risk premium to WTI crude oil in
April 2026. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries disrupted operations, reducing
refining capacity by approx. 400,000 barrels per day, tightening fuel supply in the global
market. This disruption, along with continued output discipline by OPEC+, helped limit
downside in crude oil, even as easing US-Iran tensions and ceasefire developments created
intermittent pressure. IEA has noted that these attacks are expected to weigh on Russian
refinery processing rates until at least mid - 2026.
22-04-2026
OPEC+ Supply Discipline Supports Crude
OPEC+ continues to maintain supply discipline to support market stability, managing
approximately 3.24 million barrels per day in total production cuts. This includes broad groupwide cuts of 2 mbpd, which have been extended through the end of December 2026.
Key producers Saudi Arabia and Russia have shifted from their previous 1.3 mbpd additional
voluntary cuts to a phased unwinding of those targets. Starting in May 2026, eight OPEC+
members are implementing a production adjustment of 206,000 bpd, with Saudi Arabia and
Russia leading the increase by adding 62,000 bpd each. This flexible, data driven approach has
helped provide a floor for crude prices, offsetting concerns about global demand and
geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
22-04-2026
Crude Oil Inventory Analysis
Crude oil inventories have shown mixed movements in recent weeks, with a sharp build of 16
million barrels in late February indicating strong stock accumulation. In the following weeks,
inventories gradually eased, reflecting more balanced supply conditions.
The latest data showed a draw of -0.9 million barrels for the week ending 15-Apr, suggesting
a slight improvement in demand. Looking ahead, the inventory release on 22-Apr is expected
at -1.9 million barrels compared to the previous -0.9 million barrels, which could provide shortterm support to crude oil prices if the draw is larger than expected.
22-04-2026
Red Sea Crisis
The Red Sea crisis continues to act as a structural support factor for crude oil prices in 2026,
even though it is no longer a daily headline risk. Ongoing attacks by Yemen-based Houthi
rebels on commercial vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait since late 2023. This disruption
forces major shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 - 15 days to
voyages. This increases freight costs, causes shipping delays, and poses risks to global oil
supplies. It has also tightened near-term supply logistics and supported prices.
22-04-2026
Oil Logistics & Supply Chain Dynamics
The global oil market is facing logistical challenges that are indirectly supporting prices.
Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have increased risks for oil
transportation, forcing tankers to take longer routes. This has delayed deliveries and made
supply tighter in the short term.
At the same time, higher shipping costs and lower inventories at key hubs like Cushing,
Oklahoma have added pressure on the supply chain. The use of shadow fleet tankers to bypass
sanctions is keeping oil flowing, but also increasing risks and costs. Overall, these logistical
issues are helping support crude oil prices despite stable production levels.
22-04-2026
Technical Analysis
US Oil
WTI crude oil is currently trading near $90 - $91, where a positional buying opportunity is
emerging. A long position can be considered around $91, with the recent swing low acting as
stop loss which is $79. The price is also approaching a descending trend line resistance; a
confirmed breakout above this trend line can indicate strengthening bullish momentum. If this
breakout is supported by continuous buying, the market has potential to be seen around $98
and if the rally continues price can go next swing high which is around $105.
22-04-2026
Technical Analysis
MCX Crude Oil
Crude Oil is trading around 8500. A positional buying opportunity can be seen here at a level of
8500, with swing low as stop loss. Stop loss can be placed at 7400 with target levels of 9120
and if the rally continues we can also see 9850 as second target level.
22-04-2026
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