22-01-2026
Global crude oil prices have been on an upward trajectory recently, supported by intensifying geopolitical risks and tightening supply expectations. Rising tensions in the Middle East particularly concerns over potential disruptions related to Iran have lifted both Brent and WTI benchmarks, with markets responding to heightened supply risk premiums. Oil futures have also gained on broader risk-off sentiment and supply-side constraints amid U.S. sanctions and geopolitical actions targeting key oil producers, which have reduced available export flows and bolstered crude valuations. These upward movements reflect investor focus on geopolitical uncertainty and constrained supply outlooks, contributing to recent price gains despite ongoing market volatility
22-01-2026
SUPPLY DEMAND DYNAMICS
Global crude oil prices have recently moved higher as markets react to shortterm supply disruptions and stronger demand indicators, even against a
backdrop of longer-term surplus concerns. Temporary outages at
Kazakhstan’s key Tengiz and Korolev fields have supported prices in the near
term, and upbeat economic data including stronger activity from China —
has added to bullish sentiment, lifting Brent and WTI prices. At the same
time, the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market report forecasts
global supply growth continuing to outpace demand into 2026, suggesting an
ongoing structural oversupply and elevated inventory levels, which tends to
limit sustained price gains. While this structural surplus remains, current
dynamics of production interruptions and firming demand expectations have
helped oil trade higher in the short run. Upcoming U.S. inventory data and
OPEC+ output decisions will remain critical for near-term direction.
22-01-2026
INVENTORY DATA
Recent U.S. crude inventory data shows consistent drawdowns in early
January, which supported oil prices by signaling tighter near-term supply. The
mid-January inventory build briefly pressured prices, reflecting short-term
oversupply. However, the latest forecast again points to a draw, aligning with
current news of temporary supply disruptions and improving demand
sentiment. If confirmed, this could keep prices supported in the near term,
while surprise builds may cap upside amid broader supply concerns.
22-01-2026
EVENTS AND NEWS
1) Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East:
Renewed conflict and political instability involving key oil producers such as
Iran have elevated supply risk perceptions, causing both Brent and WTI
benchmarks to climb as markets price in potential disruptions. This
heightened risk premium has driven crude prices higher despite broader
economic headwinds.
2) Supply disruption concerns from Iran export risks:
Traders have pushed crude prices up following reports that intensifying
protests and unrest in Iran may threaten oil production and exports, adding
to anxiety about future supply availability. These developments have helped
extend price gains for major crude benchmarks.
3) Oil prices rising on supply fear sentiment:
Commodities market data show a sharp uptick in crude prices driven by
ongoing fears of supply constraints, with both benchmark prices climbing as
investors weigh continued geopolitical risks alongside tightened global
supply expectations.
22-01-2026
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil has broken out of a long-term descending channel and successfully
retested the previous resistance-turned-support zone, signaling a strong trend
reversal. The formation of a higher low followed by bullish follow-through
suggests strengthening momentum rather than a temporary pullback. As long
as prices sustain above the support area, the upside bias remains intact.
RECOMMENDATION
Buy: 5500
Target 1: 5700
Target 2: 5800
Stop Loss: 5300
A sustained move above 5700 could accelerate upside momentum toward
the 5800 zone in the next leg higher.
22-01-2026
DETAILS OF RESEARCH ANALYST