This week brings a fresh wave of US inflation data, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) set for release. Several Federal Reserve officials will speak before and after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the September meeting. Other key data to watch include consumer sentiment and the US trade deficit.
Key data and event scheduled this week (US Fed Minutes, CPI, and RBI Policy
Wednesday, October 9
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets on Wednesday, and some market watchers believe it could follow the Fed’s lead by cutting rates by 50 basis points. At its last meeting in August, the RBNZ cut the official cash rate for the first time in over four years—an unexpected move a year ahead of its own projections. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has hinted at the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. Markets expect the RBNZ to reduce the cash rate from 5.25% to 4.75%.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish the minutes of its September meeting on Tuesday. Investors are looking for further insights into the RBA’s recent hawkish stance, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled to speak the same day.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is also set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday. Markets expect the RBI to maintain the key repo rate at 6.50%, following a period of steady policy.
The same day, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released. These minutes could provide additional clarity on the discussions that led to the decision to hold rates steady, while Fed officials like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to deliver remarks.
Thursday, October 10
Thursday will see the release of the weekly .U.S. jobs data, along with CPI and core CPI readings for September. New York Fed President John Williams is also slated to speak.
.U.S. inflation data for September is expected to show further moderation in price pressures. The Core CPI month-over-month (MoM) is forecast to rise by 0.2%, down from 0.3% in the previous month, while CPI MoM is expected to increase by 0.1%, down from 0.2%. Year-over-year (YoY) CPI is forecast to come in at 2.3%, down from 2.5%. Any significant moderation in these figures could be a game-changer for the US Dollar.
Weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise to 229,000 from the previous 225,000, potentially weighing on the Dollar as well.
Friday, October 11
In Europe, the focus will be on UK GDP data during the Friday session. The GDP reading is expected to come in at 0.2%, up from the previous 0.0%. This could provide support for the British Pound.
In the US, PPI data for September is also due. The headline PPI is forecast to increase by 0.1%, down from the previous 0.2%, while core PPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, down from 0.3%. A slowdown in PPI could negatively impact the Dollar. Additionally, preliminary consumer sentiment data will be released, along with more speeches from Fed officials like Austan Goolsbee and Lorie Logan.
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