After May’s non-farm payrolls report indicated that employment figures climbed, the U.S. dollar soared above its mid-March high as traders debated whether the U.S. Federal Reserve should forego raising interest rates in June.
The U.S. dollar sparked above its mid-March high, after May’s non-farm payrolls report showed employment numbers surged, while traders weighed the merits of the U.S. Federal Reserve possibly skipping a rate hike in June.
The report revealed a 339,000 increase in payrolls in the public and private sectors in May, considerably exceeding the 190,000 average projection made by experts surveyed by Reuters. May’s jump followed a 253,000 rise in April.
In April, the jobless rate reached a 53-year low of 3.4% before increasing to 3.7%.
Bullion prices dropped nearly 1% on Friday, while on a weekly basis, prices gained nearly half per cent. Gold prices retreated from the weekly high of 60385 and settled at 59608. Silver prices retreated from 72999 and settled at 72020 up 1.11% on a weak basis.
Base metals found some ground, but on the weekend retreated again. Copper prices settled at 716.10 with a weekly gain of 0.51%, prices jumped to a high of 724.50 before closing
Crude prices witnessed a smart recovery on the weekend. Prices recovered from the low 5567 and settled at 5916.00. prices jumped following the Debt deal and U.S. NFP data, released later on Friday.
Important Economic Data and Events
This week the economic calendar will have few numbers, and the market might react to it. The U.K. does not have any significant numbers. Eurozone Factory orders, China Inflation numbers and the Bank of Canada will have to closely watch this week.
Further, the World Bank is to release its latest projections for global growth on Tuesday, followed a day later by OECD with its own forecasts. The outlook will bring clutter to the entire market.
Monday
The ISM services PMI is set to release in the USA. Data is expected to expand by 52.6, in contrast with the manufacturing PMI which contracted for a seventh straight month in May.
On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will give testimony before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, and her words will be keenly scrutinised.
Eurozone: On Monday, figures will be released that will reveal how the German economy did at the beginning of the second quarter. After information last week revealed that the largest economy in the bloc fell into recession in the first quarter, figures on trade, factory orders, and industrial production are coming out.
Wednesday
Bank of Canada rate dictions will come out. Markets expect the BOC to deliver a hawkish hold at 4.50% – indicating that they could raise rates again in July unless there is evidence of cooling inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a policy meeting. Policymakers could go either way after April inflation data rose much more strongly than expected.
Rates are already at an 11-year peak at 3.85% after a surprise hike last month, with RBA governor Philip Lowe saying he wanted to send a clear message that the central bank will do whatever it takes to win the inflation fight.
Friday
China is to publish the CPI numbers on YoY basis which will show inflation will expand by .2% from 0.1%. The number will have a significant impact on base metal prices.
Global economic forecasts
Next week, the World Bank will release its latest global growth projections on Tuesday, followed a day later by OECD with its own forecasts. The outlook will bring clutter to the entire market.
Last month the World Bank warned of a slow-growth crisis in the global economy that could persist over the coming decade. Amid financial sector turmoil, high inflation, the ongoing effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and three years of COVID-19 are to be seen.
Meanwhile, OECD raised its forecasts for global growth back in March saying it expects global growth to reach 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2024. However, they warned that the outlook remains fragile, and risks remain tilted to the downside.