US GDP and PCE data, Tokyo inflation figures and preliminary June inflation data from some Eurozone economies are in focus this week. In addition, the focus is on signs of high-tech depletion and growing trade tensions.
Domestically, markets are reacting to the outcome of the GST Council meeting announced last Saturday, although volatility can be expected ahead of the budget.
The key data and events for this week.(US GDP and PCE data)
Tuesday – Canadian Inflation
- The weekly economic calendar begins on Tuesday with the Canadian inflation number. Earlier this month, the BoC became the second G10 central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with Governor Macklem signaling that it would be “reasonable to expect further cuts” if inflation cools.
- The data sets the tone for the Bank of Canada’s comprehensive release next week. The inflation indicator is expected to cool to 0.3% from 0.5% previously, which may have an impact on the dollar.
- US CB Consumer Confidence is released on the same day. The number is forecast to be 100.2, down slightly from 102 previously, which could weigh on the dollar.
Wednesday – Australia Inflation
- Australia releases its monthly CPI prints for May. The number is foreseen at 3.5% moderate from previous 3.5%. Inflation in Australia has been proving stickier than other major economies, with RBA policymakers discussing the possibility of hiking rates at Tuesday’s gathering.
- The US New Home Sales to be next release for the day. The data is expected to jump by 650K after a strong increase of 634K. This could have a positive impact on the value of the dollar.
Thursday – US Weekly Jobless claims
- The Bank of England Gov Bailey Speaks will in Focus, as it could weight on the pound.
- The final US Q1 GDP data will be released on the same day. Data should be 1.4% compared to 1.3% before. In addition, US jobless claims remain an important publication to monitor each week, as it is a more up-to-date indicator of labor market conditions.
- Initial claims are expected to reach 240,000 this week, up from 238,000 previously.
- In addition, orders of durable goods (m/m) are also in focus. The figure is expected to shrink -0.1% from 0.6% previously, which could weigh on the dollar. Other market data deals with housing sales m/m data. of.
Friday – Tokyo CPI, US and Eurozone Inflation
- Tokyo Core CPI y/y will draw attention on Friday. The number is foreseen at 2.0% from previous 1.9%. BoJ’s Summary of Opinions shows that BoJ expects to raise interest rate if underlying inflation rises as projected.
- The US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption price index, will be released on Friday and should show whether inflation continues to slow. The amount should be a moderate 0.1% compared to the previous 0.2%. This can weigh on the dollar. UoM’s revised consumer sentiment is expected to be 65.9, slightly down from the previous estimate of 65.60.
- In the Eurozone, France, Italy and Spain are scheduled to publish preliminary inflation data for June on the same day.
- The data will set the tone for a euro zone-wide print the following week, the market will gauge how many times the European Central Bank will cut rates this year. French Prelim CPI m/m is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.0%. While, Spanish Flash CPI y/y is foreseen at 3.3% from previous 3.6%. The ECB cut rates on June 6, but still strong domestic inflation and wages have raised question marks on how many more will follow.
- Any upside surprise would sour the mood for investors grappling with fresh political uncertainty after French President Emmanuel Macron called a first round French election on June 30.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar
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