A series of key US economic releases, including the crucial monthly jobs report, global final September PMI data, and speeches from several U.S. Federal Reserve officials, are set to take center stage in an otherwise subdued financial market calendar, coinciding with China’s week-long public holiday starting on October 1.
Important data and Event to watch this week – US Jobs number, Eurozone CPI
Monday –
The week begins with Chicago PMI and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
China PMI foreseen at 49.4 compared to the previous 49.1. That could weight on the market.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economic outlook before the National Association for Business Economics on Monday.
In a note dated Friday, Deutsche Bank analysts indicated they expect Powell’s comments to closely align with his post-FOMC press conference, where he justified the substantial rate cut by highlighting increased confidence in inflation control and the clear emergence of downside risks, particularly concerning the labor market.
The euro zone releases – German CPI and retail sales are due on Monday, when European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to the European Parliament.
German CPI foreseen at 0.1% from -0.1%. That could weight on the Euro.
Further, at least 10 other Fed officials are scheduled to speak during the week, adding texture to the market’s U.S. policy expectations
Tuesday
The eurozone will release its preliminary September inflation data on Tuesday, a crucial figure that will be closely watched as the European Central Bank considers the potential for another rate cut in October.
Economists predict inflation will drop to 1.9%, falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since June 2021, mainly due to lower energy costs. However, inflation is expected to pick up again later in the year.
In the U.S., key data releases include the ISM Manufacturing Index, forecasted to improve slightly to 47.6 from the previous 47.2, and the JOLTS job openings report, expected to come in at 7.64 million compared to 7.67 million previously. This data could put pressure on the dollar.
Wednesday
US ADP jobs report likely to attract attention with a forecast of 124k from previous 99K. That could weight on the dollar.
Thursday
U.S. weekly jobless claims data will be an important trigger to watch, with forecasts expecting a rise to 221K from the previous 218K.
Additionally, the ISM Services PMI is projected to come in at 51.6, slightly up from the prior reading of 51.5. Both data points could have a positive impact on the dollar.
Friday
The Federal Reserve initiated its rate-cutting cycle with a substantial 50 basis point reduction earlier this month, but the labor market remains a key focus for investors assessing the pace at which the central bank may need to continue cutting rates in the months ahead.
The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the October nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with economists projecting an increase of 144,000 jobs from previous 142000. Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings m/m foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.4%.
Weaker-than-expected employment figures could reignite recession concerns, while stronger-than-expected job growth may raise fears that the Fed will not cut rates as aggressively as anticipated, in an effort to prevent a resurgence of inflation.
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