This week, the US monthly jobs report will have an important trigger for the market. Further, OPEC meets and central banks in Australia and New Zealand are to deliver their latest interest rate decisions which also hold some volatility.
Last week, Bullion prices extended its recent gain. Gold rose by 0.57% and Silver prices jumped by 2.5%. Base metals remained somewhat in green. Aluminum prices settled with a weekly gain of 3.65% . first weekly gain after 30 January 2023. Zinc prices gained 1.29% while Lead gained 0.89%. However, copper prices struggled for direction and after swinging in between gain and loss settled down by 0.79%.
From the energy front, Crude posted more than 8% gain. That was the biggest weekly gain since 3 February 2023 and Natural gas was also able to settle in a green after three week fall. Prices recovered by 1.16%.
Currency front, Dollar index settled down by 0.51% at 102.594, USDINR dropped by 0.21% at 82.1400. Euro gained 0.77% and Pound gained 0.81% against the US dollar.
Important Economic Data and Events
U.S.
ISM purchasing managers surveys of manufacturing are due out on Monday. With forecast to have a contraction of 47.5 from 47.7 and Service sector activity on Wednesday is due out. With a forecast to have a contraction by 54.5 from previous 55.1. Both data could have a negative impact on the dollar, while positive for bullion.
Further, foremost important data would be Nonfarm employment change. Due on Friday, which will update on the health of a labor market which has remained robust over the past year in the face of a barrage of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Forecast to have a contraction by 235k jobs in March after an increase of 311K in February. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have increased at an annual rate of 4.3%, which would be the slowest rate since July 2021.
The March employment report will be the last before the Fed’s upcoming May meeting, with investors split over whether policymakers will raise rates one last time. An increase above 200K in terms of jobs creation is likely to bolster expectations for a 25-basis point rate hike.
Fed officials have indicated that they expect rates to remain around current levels for the rest of this year to help combat inflation.
OPEC meeting
OPEC meet on Monday will have a strong impact on Crude oil prices. The members are likely to stick to its existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting.
OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial monitoring panel, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on Monday.
After those talks, the next full OPEC+ meeting is not until June.
Falling oil prices are a problem for most OPEC+ members because their economies rely heavily on oil revenue.
Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to meet on Tuesday with a decision on whether to hike or hold rates on a knife edge.
Data last week showed that Australian inflation slowed to an eight month low of 6.8% year-over-year in February, prompting investors to pretty much rule out chances for a 25-basis point rate hike.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe has said the central bank was closer to pausing its rate increases because monetary policy was now in restrictive territory, and suggested a halt could come as soon as April depending on the data.