US election polls will keep volatility high today.
FX Update
The dollar index jumped above 104 mark again, up 0.72% in Early Asian Trade today, as first polls close in US presidential race.
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell as U.S. voters headed to the polls on Tuesday, with the results of the us election is likely to decide at least the near-term fate of the greenback.
Polls show a tight race between Republican former president Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and the most extreme currency moves will occur if the party of the new president also wins control of Congress.
Traders have pared back bets that Trump will win the presidency in recent days, in part due to some polls showing rising odds of a Harris victory. Election betting sites including PredictIt and Polymarket show Trump as the favorite though his probability of victory has declined..
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices gained nearly half percent on a decision by OPEC+ to delay by a month plans to increase output, while the market braced for a crucial week that includes the U.S. presidential election and a key meeting in China.
Gold:
Gold prices edged up as investors braced for political tensions after opinion polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the U.S. presidential election where chances of a contested result are high. Gold is supported by “the uncertainty of the elections. Part of it is what happens if things don’t go so smooth, part of it is the possibility of tariffs, some kind of economic change.
Copper:
Copper prices rose to a 22-day high on a softer dollar as traders balanced their positions ahead of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and on stimulus cues from top metals buyer China.
Prices action (MCX)
Gold 78507 (+0.11%), Silver 94648 (+0.39%), Copper 859.55 (+0.80%) Crude Oil 6054 (+0.50%) Natural gas 226.10 (-3.25%)
Major Economic Data and Event released yesterday
· Canada posted a higher than expected trade deficit of C$1.26 billion ($908 million) in September.
· US PMI reading stood at 56.0, an impressive figure that not only surpassed the forecasted 53.8.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today (US election)
Japan
At 5.20am- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
Above data could have a neutral impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
At 12.30pm- German Factory Orders m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.6% from previous -5.8%.
At 1.45pm- Spanish Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 56.6 from previous 57.00
At 2.15pm- Italian Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 50.3 from previous 50.50.
At 2.20pm- French Final Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 48.3 from previous 48.3.
At 2.25pm- German Final Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.4 from previous 51.4.
At 2.30pm- Final Services PMI. Data is foreseen at 51.2 from previous 51.2.
At 7.30pm- ECB President Lagarde Speaks.
Above data could have an mixed impact on the Euro.
UK
At 3.00pm Construction PMI. Data is foreseen at 2.6% from previous 2.7%.
Tentative – Monetary Policy Report Hearings.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Pound.
CANADA
At 8.30pm- Ivey PMI. Data is foreseen at 54.2 from previous 53.10.
At 10.55pm- Gov Council Member Rogers Speaks/
Above data could have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar.
US
At 9.00pm- Crude Oil Inventories
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
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