Gold is one of the most traded and loved commodities in India. Whether it’s weddings, festivals, or investments, gold holds a special place. But have you ever wondered why MCX Gold prices keep moving up and down? It’s not just about what’s happening in India — a lot of it is influenced by global markets.

Let’s break it down in the simplest way possible.

1. How COMEX Gold Affects MCX Gold

MCX Gold (traded in India) follows the price movement of COMEX Gold very closely. Why?

Because gold is a globally traded asset. So when prices rise or fall in the international market (COMEX), India — as a major importer — gets directly affected.

Example:

• If COMEX Gold rises from $2300 to $2350 per ounce, MCX Gold also starts moving up.
• If COMEX crashes due to strong economic data in the US, MCX usually follows.

However, there’s a twist — currency exchange rates play a role too. That brings us to the next point.

2. Role of USD/INR (US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee)

Gold is priced in US Dollars globally, but in India, we buy it in Rupees. So, the USD to INR exchange rate becomes important.

What happens when INR weakens?

If the rupee becomes weaker (say from ₹83 to ₹84 per dollar), then even if COMEX Gold stays the same, MCX Gold will become more expensive. That’s because we’ll need more rupees to buy the same dollar-priced gold.

And when INR strengthens?

If the rupee strengthens (say from ₹84 to ₹82), MCX Gold might fall, or at least not rise as much, even if COMEX goes up.

Simple Rule:

• Weak INR = Expensive Gold in India
• Strong INR = Slightly Cheaper Gold in India

3. How the US Dollar Index (DXY) Comes into Play

Now let’s talk about the US Dollar Index, also called DXY. It measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of currencies like the euro, yen, etc.

There’s an inverse relationship between gold and the dollar:

• When the dollar gets stronger, gold becomes less attractive because it gets costlier in other currencies.
• When the dollar weakens, gold usually rises, as it becomes cheaper and more in demand globally.

So, if the DXY shoots up, COMEX Gold may fall, and that can drag MCX Gold down too (unless INR is weakening a lot and offsets it).

Gold Market Analysis – 30 June 2025

Why Gold Rose Intraday Despite Bearish News

Middle East Ceasefire (Israel–Iran): A fragile but holding ceasefire eased fears of war. This reduced safe-haven demand for gold, as investors no longer felt the urgent need to hedge risk.

Progress on Global Trade Deals: US signed a deal with China and hinted at big agreements with India, Vietnam, Mexico, and Japan. Trade optimism supports global markets (stocks up, risk sentiment high), which often means gold loses shine.

Upcoming US Jobs Data (ADP, NFP, JOLTS):  Investors are cautious ahead of data that could affect the Fed’s interest rate outlook. A strong jobs report could lead to higher yields and a stronger dollar, both bearish for gold.

So, all of this suggests less fear, more optimism — and that’s typically bad for gold. But here’s the twist…

Why Gold Rose Intraday

1. Markets Had Already Priced in the Bad News

The ceasefire and trade talks were announced last week. By Monday, most of that was already priced in, meaning markets had already reacted. So, when no new negative shock came, buyers started bargain hunting at lower levels.

2. Technical Support

The zone has been a critical support level for weeks. Gold bounced from this range, forming a possible bullish reversal pattern on intraday charts (e.g., bullish engulfing or hammer). Short-term traders stepped in to buy, expecting a short-lived rebound.

3. Weakening Dollar During the Day

The US Dollar Index (DXY) showed slight weakness in early trade hours.A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for global buyers → increases demand.

4. Fed Uncertainty Still Lingers

Even though the jobs data is due later, some investors expect it might show weakness (given recent cooling in consumer spending and income). If that happens, the Fed might still go ahead with a rate cut. That’s bullish for gold, so some traders positioned early in anticipation.

What About MCX Gold?

• MCX Gold also tracked this bounce. INR weakened slightly in early trade, giving gold a boost in rupee terms.
• Plus, with COMEX recovering intraday, MCX followed due to currency adjustment and global cues.
• Traders in India also used the lower opening as a buy-on-dip opportunity, especially ahead of potential dovish Fed comments later this week.

Way forward:

We analysed the major fundamental factors affecting gold prices. Will soon update with the Technical Analysis and further in depth research soon. Till then,

Happy trading!