UK GDP, US retail sales data in Focus today
FX Update
Dollar Index
The dollar pared some losses against major peers on Wednesday but stayed weaker as cooler-than-expected data eased fears that inflation was accelerating and increased the chances the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates twice this year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months through December, in line with economists’ expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came in as expected, but lower than the previous month.
Softer core reading coupled with producer prices data on Tuesday.
Crude Oil:
Crude Oil prices rose more than 2%, supported by a large draw in U.S. crude stockpiles and potential supply disruptions caused by new U.S. sanctions on Russia, while a Gaza ceasefire deal limited gains.
Gold:
Gold prices extended gains, as the dollar dipped after U.S. core inflation data came in softer than expected, abating inflation pressures and rekindling expectations that the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle may not be over yet.
Copper
US Comex copper futures continued trading at a large premium of $464 a ton to the LME copper benchmark after the U.S. contract’s sharp growth with the pricing in of expected import tariffs promised by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
MCX Closing Update
Gold 78,710 (0.70%), Silver 92856 (2.54%), Crude oil 6,899 (2.42%), Copper 832.25 (0.33%), Natural Gas 348.30 (0.11%).
Economic Data and Event Releases yesterday
Japan
Japan’s wholesale prices rose 3.8% in December from a year earlier, central bank data showed on Thursday, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure from rising raw material costs.
Eurozone
Consumer prices in France were up 1.8% year-on-year in December. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% in December, in line with the preliminary reading, after having fallen 0.1% in November.
The German economy contracted for a second straight year in 2024, remaining the weakest among eurozone peers. GDP shrank 0.1% in Q4 and 0.2% for the full year.
UK
British inflation unexpectedly slowed to an annual rate of 2.5% in December vs 2.6% and 3.2% VS 3.4% month on month.
US
Consumer price index increased by 0.4% last month, accelerating slightly from 0.3% in November. In the twelve months through December, the CPI climbed by 2.9%, faster than the prior reading of 2.7%.
Economic Data and Event scheduled today
Australia
At 5.30am –MI Inflation Expectations.
At 6.00am-
Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 14.5k from previous 36.6k.
Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4% from previous 3.9%.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Yen.
UK
At 12.30pm –
GDP m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous -0.1%.
Construction Output m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous 0.4%.
Goods Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at -18.0B from previous -19.0B.
Index of Services 3m/3m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.1%.
Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous -0.6%.
Manufacturing Production m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.2% from previous -0.6%
At 3.00pm- BOE Credit Conditions Survey.
Above data and speech could have a mixed impact on the pound.
Eurozone
At 12.30pm – German Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.4% from previous 0.4%.
At 3.30pm-
Italian Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 4.50B from previous 5.15B.
French Final CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 11.8B from previous 6.1B.
At 6.00pm- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.
Above data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.
US
At 7.00pm-
Core Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.5% from previous 0.2%
Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.6% from previous 0.7%
Unemployment Claims. Data is foreseen at 210K from previous 201K.
Import Prices m/m. Data is foreseen at -5.2 from previous -16.4.
At 8.30pm-
Business Inventories m/m. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous 0.1%.
NAHB Housing Market Index. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.1%.
At 9.00pm- Natural Gas Storage.
At 9.30pm- FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
Until then, Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets
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