This week, U.S. Nonfarm payroll numbers and FOMC meeting minutes will give clues for the interest rates decision. Further, PMI numbers from China will also be in the attention as the recovery in the world’s number two economy grows slower. Canada’s Unemployment numbers also will be in focus. Moreover, OPEC meeting, Australia’s central bank policy will also be closely watched after the bank hike rate by 4.10% in last month’s policy.
Upcoming week important data and events
Monday
The economic calendar will start from Monday with China PMI Caixin purchasing managers index which will give an update on the strength of the manufacturing sector as the post-COVID economic recovery in the world’s second-largest economy falters.
The data is expected to reduce by 50.0 from the 50.9 previous reading, which likely draws attention to the need for more stimulus measures by China Government amid weak demand both at home and abroad and prop up a weakening currency.
Tuesday
Reserve Bank of Australia policy decisions will be the key events. There is speculation whether it might further raise the 4.1% cash rate or pause to see how past tightening is working.
The RBA has hiked interest rates by a huge 400 basis points in the past year in an attempt to cool demand and curb sky-high inflation.
Resilient retail sales data last Thursday suggested some cushion for another rate rise, a day after data showing that inflation slowed sharply in May to its lowest in 13 years saw an aggressive pairing of tightening bets.
Wednesday
In mid of the week, the FOMC meeting minutes of its June 13-14 and OPEC meeting decision will bring clutter for the market.
On Friday a gauge of inflation PCE numbers that is closely followed by the U.S. central bank indicated that price pressures are cooling which increases hopes the Fed could be near the end of its rate-hiking cycle.
Further, the recent Fed comments have suggested that “a strong majority” of Fed policymakers expect they will need to raise interest rates at least twice more by year’s end.
Adding to this, the Saudis and other oil producers will be at the July 5-6 seminar of oil industry CEOs with energy ministers from OPEC – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, which include Saudi Arabia and Russia. The 23-nation alliance pumps more than 40% of the world’s oil supply.
Thursday
U.S. to release its private sector hiring from ADP, JOLTS job openings numbers and weekly unemployment claims data.
Friday
The U.S. employment report will be the key numbers for the week. Economists forecasting 222K jobs in June from 339K in May.
Signs of continued strength in the labour market could indicate that the U.S. economy can avoid a severe recession despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening.