U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m Will Be Key Focus Today

The US Core PCE price index m/m will be the key focus for today

On Thursday, the dollar increased for the fourth session in a row. Currency sparked above its highest levels since 17 March 2023. As U.S. economic data including First quarter GDP and Weekly initial jobless claims signalled resilience even after the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hike cycle.

The dollar index rose 0.34% at 104.312. It’s the highest since March 17. It would be the longest winning streak of four days since late February.

From the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 last week to 229,000, while data from the prior week was revised sharply lower, indicating the labour market remains strong.

The economy slowed down, according to the second estimate of first-quarter GDP growth, which was revised up from the initial 1.1% reading to a 1.3% increase.

The largest economy in Europe, Germany, however, had a recession in the first quarter as GDP decreased by 0.3%, which caused the euro to decline.

As negotiations to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling continue in Washington, concerns about a possible U.S. default helped to boost the dollar. If the ceiling is not raised, the Treasury has issued a warning that it won’t be able to pay all of its debts on June 1.

Bullions extended the recent fall, while Copper was able to recover  

Gold prices settled at 59460, down 0.65%. Silver settled at 70242, tested its lowest levels since 29 March 2023 and settled down by 1.19%.

 After hitting a multi-week low in the previous session, copper prices were able to recover slightly and settled at 702.60, up 1.30%. Zinc prices were down by 0.39%, and settled at 206.25.

Crude prices tumbled after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is also the nation’s de facto oil minister, said he expected no new steps from OPEC+ at its meeting on June 4.

Russians aren’t helping the price of oil — to the delight possibly of the West and the utter frustration likely of other producers within the OPEC+ alliance, not to mention market bulls.

Brent crude futures were down by 2.93% to $75.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.63 a barrel, down 3.44%. MCX crude oil fell by 2.70% and settled at 5946.

Economic data and events to watch


At 11.30 am- Retail Sales m/m is to be released.  Data is foreseen at 0.3%, higher than the contraction of 0.9%.

All the above data may have a positive impact on Yen.


At 6.00 pm- The market will react to the Core PCE Price Index m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3%, unchanged from the previous reading.

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, data is foreseen at 0.0%, slightly lower from 0.2%

Durable Goods Orders m/m, data is foreseen contraction by 1% from 3.2%.

Goods Trade Balance data is expected to have a contraction of 85.6B, compared to a contraction of 84.6B.

Personal Income m/m, data is foreseen at 0.4% slightly higher than 0.3%

Personal Spending m/m, data is foreseen at 0.4%, slightly higher than 0.0%.

Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, data is foreseen at 0.2%, slightly higher from 0.0%.

At 7.30 pm – The revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is set to release. Data is foreseen at 58.2 higher from 57.7.

All the above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.