Today’s Focus : US GDP, ADP NFP & UK Budget Stir Volatility
FX Update
The dollar hit three-month highs against the yen on Tuesday, but was little changed on the day against most major currencies as traders bided their time ahead of next week’s U.S. election and a slew of incoming economic data.
The loss of a parliamentary majority for Japan’s ruling coalition in weekend elections muddied the political and monetary picture, and has been weighing on the yen.
The dollar was last up 0.12% on the day at 153.47 yen. The BOJ announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday, and is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.
Crude Oil:
Oil prices closed slightly lower on Tuesday, adding to a more than 6% drop in the previous session, on a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon. The two benchmarks had gained more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session. Both contracts fell on Monday to their lowest levels since Oct. 1 after Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran at the weekend bypassed Tehran’s oil infrastructure.
Gold:
Gold extended its rise to a record high as soft labor data preluded a batch of key economic releases this week. The main focal points include PCE inflation, advance estimates for Q3 GDP, and payroll figures, just ahead of the presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week.
Copper:
Copper futures remained in a sideways trading range since mid-October as investors cautiously awaited policy announcements from a meeting of top leadership in China next week. The National People’s Congress is scheduled to meet on Nov. 4-8, with markets anticipating announcements on debt and other fiscal measures.
Prices action (MCX)
Gold 79233 (+0.85%), Silver 98730 (+1.34%), Copper 845.20(+0.85%) Crude Oil 5668 (-0.74%) Natural gas 241.50 (+0.85%)
Focus Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today
· British lenders approved 65,647 mortgages in September, the Bank of England said , the highest number since August 2022, shortly before the country was hit by the “mini-budget” bond market crisis under former Prime Minister Liz Truss.
· Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed job openings fell to a more than 3-1/2 years low in September at 7.44M from previous 7.98M and data for the prior month was revised down, a sign of a continually cooling labour market.
· Consumer confidence increased to a nine-month high at 108.70 in October from 99.5 as perceptions of the labour market improved.
Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today – US GDP, ADP NFP & UK Budget
Australia
At 6.00am
CPI q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 1%.
CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 2.3% from previous 2.7%.
Above data could have a negative impact on the dollar.
Japan
At 10.30am- Consumer Confidence. Data is foreseen at 36.7 from previous 36.9.
Above data could have a positive impact on the Yen.
Eurozone
All Day- German Prelim CPI m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.0%.
At 12.00pm-
French Consumer Spending m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.1% from previous 0.2%.
French Flash GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.2%.
At 1.30pm
Spanish Flash CPI y/y. Data is foreseen at 1.7% from previous 1.5%.
Spanish Flash GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.6% from previous 0.8%.
At 2.25pm- German Unemployment Change. Data is foreseen at 15k from previous 17k.
At 2.30pm-
Italian Prelim GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.2%.
German Prelim GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at -0.1% from previous -0.1%.
At 3.30pm- Eurozone Prelim Flash GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.2% from previous 0.2%.
At 11.30pm- German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Euro.
UK
Tentative – Autumn Forecast Statement.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the Pound.
US
At 5.45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 110k from previous 143k.
At 6.00pm-
Advance GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 3% from previous 3%.
Advance GDP Price Index q/q. Data is foreseen at 1.9% from previous 2.5%.
At 7.30pm- Pending Home Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 1.9% from previous 0.6%.
At 8.00pm- Crude Oil Inventories.
Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.
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