Could this be the week that a specific kind of data might pave the way for your financial success. Well it’s the market, so its all upon the data. Speaking of data, as the week closes in on the final days of trading, what are some events that traders must keep an eye on .
Well here’s Mr. Ankit Kapoor, Head of Research at Commodity Samachar telling you what to
focus on and how to strategize moving ahead!!
Silver and Gold Market Dynamics
Silver has seen a bigger decline compared to gold. The main reason for this is the disparity between buyers and sellers. Currently, 85% of the market participants are buyers and only 15% are sellers for silver. In contrast, gold has not experienced a significant decline because the buyer-to-seller ratio is more balanced at 60:40. This mid-range equilibrium in gold allows for targets on both sides of the market.
Now, the entire market’s focus will shift to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is due on Friday evening.
What is the PCE Report?
The PCE report, or Personal Consumption Expenditures report, tracks all personal expenses except for food and energy prices. It is a significant indicator of inflation. While food and energy prices are part of the overall inflation data, they are excluded from the PCE report.
Currently, the PCE rate stands at 2.7%. If the report on Friday shows a decrease to 2.6%, it could positively impact the prices of gold and silver.
Why is the PCE Report Important?
The entire global market is focused on US inflation rates, as they have a direct impact on interest rate expectations. If US inflation falls, expectations for interest rate cuts will rise. When interest rates fall, gold and silver prices typically increase. Conversely, if the PCE report shows an increase, we may see a negative impact on gold and silver prices on Friday.
Market Impact and Predictions
The major market’s reaction to the PCE data will depend on whether the data meets, exceeds, or falls short of expectations. This clarity will help retail traders understand their positions and make informed decisions. Here are the upcoming events scheduled for this week that you’ll have to keep an eye on!
Thursday – Key Events
US Weekly Jobless Claims
The US Weekly Jobless Claims are a critical publication to monitor each week as they provide an up-to-date indicator of labor market conditions. Initial claims are expected to reach 240,000 this week, up from 238,000 previously.
Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks
The speech by the Bank of England Governor Bailey will be in focus, as it could influence the pound.
Final US Q1 GDP Data
The final US Q1 GDP data will be released on the same day. The data is expected to show a growth of 1.4%, compared to 1.3% previously.
Orders of Durable Goods (m/m)
The orders of durable goods (month-over-month) are also in focus. The figure is expected to shrink by -0.1% from 0.6% previously, which could weigh on the dollar.
Housing Sales Data
Additionally, market data dealing with housing sales (month-over-month) will also be observed.
Friday – Key Events
Tokyo CPI
Tokyo Core CPI year-over-year will draw attention on Friday. The number is projected to be 2.0%, up from the previous 1.9%. The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions suggests that the BoJ expects to raise interest rates if underlying inflation rises as projected.
US and Eurozone Inflation
The US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Price Index, will be released on Friday. It is expected to show whether inflation continues to slow, with the figure anticipated to be a moderate 0.1% compared to the previous 0.2%. This could weigh on the dollar. The University of Michigan’s revised consumer sentiment is expected to be 65.9, slightly down from the previous estimate of 65.6.
In the Eurozone, France, Italy, and Spain are scheduled to publish preliminary inflation data for June on the same day. This data will set the tone for a eurozone-wide print the following week, as the market gauges how many times the European Central Bank will cut rates this year. French Preliminary CPI month-over-month is expected to be 0.1%, up from the previous 0.0%. Spanish Flash CPI year-over-year is projected at 3.3%, down from the previous 3.6%. Although the ECB cut rates on June 6, strong domestic inflation and wages have raised questions about how many more cuts will follow.
A Perspective from Commodity Samachar:
With a plethora of Data incoming in Forex and commodities, here’s the full-length video that will put your mind at ease while you trade in the market this week. Check out the video by clicking on the YouTube link below.
For more updates, stay tuned to our blog and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Happy Trading!
Commodity Samachar
Learn and Trade with Ease
Also Read : Focus China’s Panda Strategy: Cute Gesture or Economic Marvel to Boost the Yuan? Forex Newsletter: Gold Falls as Fed Resists Rate Cuts in Focus!
Recommended Read : The Commodity Market — Why is it advantageous to traders?
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