Here is the checklist of specific events. We may witness downside pressure in the precious metals in the coming days ahead.
GBP: Construction PMI at 2:00 PM
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry
Released monthly, on the second business day after the month ends
Next Release Date Sep 2, 2022
Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy
Forecast- [52.0]
Previous- [52.6]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 2:00 PM
GBP: BOE Monetary Policy Report at 4:30 PM
Measures: More hawkish than expected is good for currency
Released quarterly
Next Release Nov 3, 2022
The report provides the BOE’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor also holds a press conference to discuss the report’s contents after release. In Nov 2019 source changed the report name from Inflation Report to Monetary Policy Report
It provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation – the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions
GBP: MPC Official Bank Rate Votes at 4:30 PM
Released monthly
Next Release Sep 15, 2022
The vote is reported in an ‘X-X-X’ format – the first number is how many MPC members voted to increase interest rates, the second number is how many voted to decrease rates, and the third is how many voted to hold rates
The BOE’s MPC meeting minutes contain the interest rate vote for each MPC member during the most recent meeting. The breakdown of votes provides insight into which members are changing their stance on interest rates and how close the committee is to enacting a rate change in the future
Forecast- [9-0-0]
Previous- [9-0-0]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure is to release at 4:30 PM.
Monetary Policy Summary at 4:30 PM
Measures: More hawkish than expected is good for currency
Released monthly
Next Release Sep 15, 2022
Source first released in Aug 2015
It’s among the primary tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes
GBP: Official Bank Rate at 4:30 PM
Measures: Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight
Scheduled monthly
Next Release Sep 15, 2022
The rate decision is usually priced in the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the Monetary Policy Summary, which is focused on the future
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future
Forecast- [1.75%]
Previous- [1.25%]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure is to release at 4:30 PM.
GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 5:00 PM
Measures- Due to hold a virtual press conference about the Monetary Policy Report and interest rate decision
BOE Governor Mar 2020 – Mar 2028. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
USD: Unemployment Claims at 6:00 PM
Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week
Released weekly, usually on the first Thursday after the week ends
Next Release Aug 11, 2022
This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy
Forecast- [262K]
Previous- [256K]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 6:00 PM.
Natural Gas Storage at 8:00 PM
Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week
Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends
Next Release date Aug 4, 2022
Inventories are used to maintain price stability during supply shortages and periods of increasing demand
Forecast- [25B]
Previous- [15B]
Actual- ?
Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly negative for Natural Gas The actual figure is to release at 8:00 PM.
USD: FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 9:30 PM
Measures: Due to speak about monetary policy during and after the pandemic at an online event hosted by the European Central Bank. Audience questions expected
FOMC voting members 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
Source: Forex Factory
For more specific events, stay tuned with us!!