Yellow and White metals extended their recent gain for the third consecutive day yesterday. Gold and silver sparked to the day’s high as the dollar slipped to a 1-week low against the euro. Greenback weakened as German inflation data helped lift the common currency and as concerns over the banking sector receded.
Inflation eased significantly in Germany in March on the back of lower energy prices but was above forecasts, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to further tighten its monetary policy.
Separately, data showed that Spain’s consumer prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, the slowest pace since the 12-month period through August 2021 and less than expected by analysts.
MCX GOLD was up by 0.68% and settled at 59316. Comex Gold rose by 0.96%, and traded at $1980.75. Silver futures rose by 1.41% and settled at 71774. Comex Silver up by 1.45% at $23.80.
Crude Oil prices rose more than 1%, supported by lower U.S. crude stockpiles and a halt to exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Which is offset pressure from a smaller-than-expected cut to Russian supplies.
Brent crude futures rose by 1.19%, to $78.40 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.73%, to $74.03. MCX crude oil jumped above 6100 and settled at 6088.
Base metals had a mixed trade. Copper prices gained 0.17% and settled at 778.80. Aluminum gained 0.14%, at 208.50, Zinc down by 0.88% closed to 258.25.
Economic Data and Events for today
Japan
At 5.00am – Tokyo inflation is to be released. Forecast is to have contraction by 3.1% from the previous 3.3%.
Expectations are high that incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will oversee the unwinding of yield curve controls and negative interest rates during his tenure after a decade of unprecedented stimulus by his predecessor.
China
At 7.00apm – Chinese Manufacturing PMI data will be closely watched. Forecast is to have a contraction by 51.6 from the previous 52.6.
Non-Manufacturing PMI at the same time, forecast to have a contraction by 55.00 from previous 56.3.
Both data could have a negative impact on Base metals.
India
At 5.30 pm – Fiscal deficit and infrastructure output data for February. Current account and external debt numbers for the quarter ended December FY23 will also be released.
All above data could have a strong impact on the Rupee.
Eurozone
At 2.30pm – CPI Flash Estimate y/y. Forecast is to have a contraction by 7.1% from the previous 8.5%.
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y. Expected to accelerate by 5.7% from 5.6%.
Unemployment Rate. Forecast to have a contraction by 6.6% from previous 6.7%.
The above data is expected to have a negative impact on Euro.
At 8.30pm – ECB President Lagarde Speaks will have a volatile impact on the Euro.
UK
At 11.30am – Current Account with a forecast to contraction by -17.5 from -19.4B.
At same time, Final GDP q/q with a forecast to have unchanged at 0.00 from 0.00.
All the above data is expected to have a negative impact on Pound.
Canada
At 6.00pm – GDP m/m with a forecast to have expanded by 0.4% from -0.1%.
Data could have a positive impact on Base metals.
U.S.
At 6.00pm -Core PCE price index with a forecast of 0.4% as compared to previous 0.6%.
This would have a negative impact on the dollar. As it will add to concerns over the prospect of a more hawkish Fed.
At same time, Personal Spending m/m with a forecast of 0.3% as compared to previous 1.8%.
Above data will have a mixed impact on Dollar and bullions.
At 7.15pm – Chicago PMI with a forecast to have a contraction by 43.1 from 43.6.
At 7.30 pm – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment with a forecast to have contraction by 63.1 from previous 63.4.
Both data could have a negative impact on the dollar