RBI Policy, US Jobs Data: What’s Sparking Market Volatility?


FX Update

Bitcoin catapulted above $100,000 for the first time on Thursday, a milestone hailed even by sceptics as a coming-of-age for digital assets as investors bet on a friendly U.S. administration to cement the place of cryptocurrencies in financial markets.

Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year and is up more than 50% in the four weeks since Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory, which also saw a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers being elected to Congress.

Crude Oil:

OPEC+ on Thursday pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026 due to weak demand and booming production outside the group. OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, had been planning to start unwinding cuts from October 2024 but a slowdown in global demand and rising output elsewhere forced it to postpone the plans on several occasions..

Gold:

Gold retreated while focus shifted to the U.S. payrolls data due later in the day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the U.S. economy was stronger than it had appeared in September, when the central bank began cutting rates, allowing policymakers to potentially be a little more cautious in reducing rates further.

Copper:                                                                                                                                  

Copper prices edged lower on Thursday, weighed down by lacklustre risk appetite amid uncertainty about stimulus in top metals consumer China.

MCX Closing Update

Gold 76,476 (-0.80%), Silver 92,424 (-0.93%), Crude oil 5,805 (-0.74%), Copper 820.20 (-0.21%), Natural Gas 260.30 (-0.62%)

Major Economic Data and Event Update

·         Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 224,000 for the week ended Nov. 30, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

·         Canada’s overall trade deficit narrowed to C$924 million ($657.60 million) in October, Statistics Canada said. It was Canada’s eighth straight monthly trade shortfall, as exports could not overtake imports despite a rise in exports for the first time since June.

·         US The trade gap narrowed 11.9% to $73.8 billion from a revised $83.8 billion in September, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.

·         German industrial orders fell in October, sapped by weak domestic demand, showing that a recovery in the industrial sector is not in sight. Orders declined by 1.5% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said on Thursday.

Major Economic Data and Event scheduled today

India

RBI Policy. Expect to hold rate steady at 6.50%.

A steady rate will have an neutral impact on the Rupee.

JAPAN

At 5.00am-

Average Cash Earnings y/y.  Data is foreseen at 2.6% from previous 2.5%

Household Spending y/y.  Data is foreseen at -2.6% from previous -1.1%

At 10.30pm- Leading Indicators.  Data is foreseen at 108.90% from previous 109.10%

Above data could have a mixed impact on the Yen.

Eurozone

At 12.30pm-

German Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at 15.8Bfrom previous 17.0B.

German Industrial Production m/m. Data is foreseen at 1% from previous -2.5%.

At 1.15pm- French Trade Balance. Data is foreseen at -8.0B from previous -8.3B.

At 3.30pm-

Final Employment Change q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.2%from previous 0.2%.

Italian Retail Sales m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.9% from previous 1.2%.

Revised GDP q/q. Data is foreseen at 0.3%from previous 0.4%.

Above data could have a mixed impact on the Euro.

Canada

At 7.00pm-

Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 24.7K from previous 14.5K.

Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 6.6% from previous 6.5%.

Above data could have a mixed impact on the Canadian dollar.

US

At 7.00pm-

Average Hourly Earnings m/m. Data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.4%

Non-Farm Employment Change. Data is foreseen at 218k from previous 12k

Unemployment Rate. Data is foreseen at 4.1% from  previous 4.1%.

At 7.45pm- FOMC Member Bowman Speaks.

At 8.30pm-

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. Data is foreseen at 73.3 from previous 71.8.

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. Previous was at 2.6%.

At 9.00pm- FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks.

At 10.30pm- FOMC Member Hammack Speaks.

At 11.30pm- FOMC Member Daly Speaks.

Above data could have a volatile impact on the dollar.

Until then, Happy Trading!

Commodity Samachar Securities
We Decode the Language of the Markets

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