U.S. CPI takes the spotlight as markets weigh Trump’s election win. Key U.S. inflation and retail sales data will take center stage this week
Key U.S. inflation and retail sales data will take center stage this week as markets assess the impact of Donald Trump’s presidential win. In Asia, Chinese data and Japan’s growth figures will draw focus, while Germany’s ZEW sentiment will be closely watched in Europe.
The important data and event scheduled for the week (CPI Data)
U.S.
In a holiday-shortened week, U.S. economic data will be closely monitored, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policy impact.
Given that, Wednesday’s CPI inflation data for October will be closely watched and could be significant for the interest-rate outlook. Analysts expect headline annual CPI inflation will be higher in October than September’s 2.4% due to base effects, unchanged from the previous.
Retail sales figures on Friday, Nov. 15 will also be watched closely for an indication of how well the U.S. economy is performing. The data is foreseen at 0.3% from previous 0.4%. That could weight on the dollar.
Other data due include producer price data for October and weekly jobless claims Thursday, as well as industrial production for October on Friday, Nov. 15.
EUROZONE
Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator on Tuesday could shed some light on how investors stand following the German coalition government’s collapse. Economists expect the ZEW index to be mixed at 13.2 from previous 13.1.
Also on Tuesday, Germany will release final inflation data for October. The data is foreseen at 0.4% unchanged from the previous.
Second-estimate GDP growth data for the eurozone are due Thursday, after flash estimate figures showed a 0.4% expansion on the quarter in July-September, unchanged from the previous.
Flash estimate euro zone employment and industrial production data will be released on the same day with forecast in contraction of 1.5% compared to the contraction of 1.8%.
Minutes from the European Central Bank’s most recent meeting will be released Thursday. Final French CPI as well as Italian CPI data are due Friday.
U.K.
The Bank of England cut interest rates at its November meeting, but further rate cuts look likely to be gradual due to a solid economy and because policies in the recent budget could stoke inflation.
Data in the coming week will provide some clues on the health of the economy. These include jobs and wages figures Tuesday forecast is at 30.5k from previous 27.9k.
Further, provisional estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product Friday will be another important data to watch. The data is foreseen at 0.2% unchanged from the previous.
CHINA
China’s consumption, investment and industrial output all likely grew faster in October, according to a poll of economists.
Data on retail sales–a proxy for consumption–on Friday, Nov. 15 are expected to show growth of 3.7% on year, up from September’s 3.2% increase. Fixed-asset investment, a barometer for investment, likely climbed 3.5% in the January-October period, compared with the 3.4% rise in the first three quarters of the year. Industrial production is expected to have increased 5.6% in October, picking up from September’s 5.4% rise.
Further announcements on stimulus will also be in focus after a meeting of China’s top legislative body approved a program to swap local government debt but didn’t offer up the fiscal stimulus details markets had been hoping for.
JAPAN
The Japan Government data due Friday, is likely to show the Japanese economy expanded modestly in the third quarter thanks to a recovery in consumption backed by higher wage-supported growth.
Real gross domestic product is expected to have grown 0.2% from the previous quarter in the July-September period, or 0.6% in annualized terms, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick.
INDIA
India will be releasing inflation data on Tuesday, and monthly wholesale price index data on Thursday.
India’s headline inflation likely rose 5.8% on year from 5.49% recorded in September. That could weight on the Rupee. The Reserve Bank of India will be watching October and November inflation data to determine whether a rate cut is due before the end of the year.
Until then, Happy Trading!
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