Check the detailed market outlook on guarseed, EURUSD, USDINR & Dollar Index.
GUARSEED
NCDEX GUARSEED FUTURE is witnessed an abrupt bullish rally since start of the month. Commodity prices closed at 6405 as against its previous day’s close of 6351 levels with the gain of 1.03%. since 10 January 2023 Guarseed future consolidating in between the range of 6330-6450 levels, which forming bullish consolidation pattern above hourly chart.
A break above 6450 upper resistance levels could lead Guarseed Future prices towards next resistance 6600 and above. Hence, traders can buy above 6450 levels for the prediction of 6600-6750 levels. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 6325 which is coincide with consolidation support which will act as an stop loss for the upside levels.
On the other hand, a break below 6325 on closing basis only will change the direction and the Guarseed Future prices may take dip towards next support 6090-5950.
Overall trend looks positive and we advise to take long position for the target 6600-6750 for the near future.
EURUSD
The BOJ surprised the market last month when it tweaked its bond yield controls, to allow a wider tolerance for long-term interest rates for its 10-year bonds, something investors didn’t expect. It is rumoured that there will be a change in monetary policy from the BoJ at some point, but it’s unlikely to happen until April when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s mandate ends according to some analysts, but surprises can always happen.
Today, economic calendar starts with the Bank of Japan Monetary policy sentiment and outlook. Where in , the BoJ is expected to keep its policy unchanged with the rate remaining at -0.10% and the YCC to flexibly target 10yr JGB yields at 0%. There is though a risk of a hawkish surprise given the recent developments in Japan. The policy makers has surprised in December by increasing their YCC band to +/- 50% from the previous +/-25%. That caused a huge speculative move in the JPY.
Further, any surprising comments about the Japan Inflation in Bank of Japan press conference will lead huge volatile move in the JPY as well as well as in the Bullions.
At 12.30 pm UK will released its CPI data with slightly lower than previous reading forecast, will have significant impact on the GBP and in the dollar, as any negative sign may lift clutter for Euro zone market.
In evening session, at 7.pmn US Core PPI, Core retail sales, PPI and Retail sales data will drive the Bullions and dollar prices significantly.
U.S. economic calendar starts the week from Monday with Factory Orders data which expected to bring positive sentiment for the greenback. On Tuesday foreseen ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data appeared to bring correction for it. Wednesday will come with Advance GDP which may add further bearish move for it. On the same day the foreseen weekly unemployment Claims and Advance GDP Price Index may have slightly positive impact for the greenback. On Thursday important one Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate is appeared to bring again bearish sentiment for the greenback. However, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment may be in favor for the greenback. At the end of the Week, crucial speaks of Fed Chairman Bernanke after the recent policy may have strong impact on the greenback
Economic data & Events to watch today –
| Time | Currency | Economic Indicators | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
| 7:30am | CNY | GDP q/y (Actual at 2.9%) | 1.60% | 3.90% | Positive for dollar |
| 12:30pm | GBP | Claimant Count Change | 19.8K | 30.5K | Positive for GBP |
| GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 6.20% | 6.10% | Positive for GBP | |
| Day 2 | All | WEF Annual Meetings | – | – | – |
| 3:30pm | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -15 | -23.3 | Neutral for EUR |
| 7:00pm | CAD | CPI m/m | -0.60% | 0.10% | Negative for CAD |
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | 4.90% | 5.00% | Negative for CAD | |
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | 5.20% | 5.30% | Negative for CAD | |
| CAD | Common CPI y/y | 6.60% | 6.70% | Negative for CAD | |
| USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | -8.7 | -11.2 | Neutral for Dollar |
USDINR Outlook
Today, USDINR opened somewhat positive and trading at 81.815 as compared to previous close of 81.618 following the China economic data which supported safe haven flows.
Technical, on the daily, USDINR is trading near to its 50 days SMA resistance which is indicating bullishness in near term. It’s expected that any temporary correction towards 81.75-81.70 could attract buying activities for the target 81.95-82.25. On the downside, crucial support is seen at 81.45 and break below only pair may retreat towards 81.20-81.00.
Dollar index View
Technical, cluster of indecisive candle stick on the daily chart is indicating for volatile momentum. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 101.65 and break below could result in downside move towards 101.20- 101.05 again. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 101.88-102.20.