Here is the checklist of leading indicators which may impact the economic view of the country.
USD: ISM Services PMI at 8:30 PM
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry
Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends
Next Release Date Feb 3, 2023
Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Source changed series from unadjusted
to seasonally adjusted as of January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2008
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing
managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy
Forecast- [ 55.0 ]
Previous- [ 56.5 ]
Actual- [ ? ]
Impact: The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions.
The actual figure to released at 8:30 PM
USD: Non-Farm Employment Change at 7:00 PM
Measures: Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry
Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
Next Release Date: Feb 3, 2023
This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
Forecast- [ 200K ]
Previous- [ 263K ]
Actual- [ ? ]
Impact: The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions.
The actual figure to released at 7:00 PM
USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m at 7:00 PM
Measures: Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry
Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
Next Release Date: Feb 3, 2023
This is the earliest data related to labor inflation. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2010
It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer
Forecast- [ 0.4% ]
Previous- [ 0.6% ]
Actual- ?
Impact: The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions.
The actual figure to released at 7:00 PM
USD: Unemployment Rate at 7:00 PM
Measures: Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month
Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
Next Release Date Feb 3, 2023
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of
overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is
also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy
Forecast- [3.7% ]
Previous- [ 3.7% ]
Actual- [ ? ]
Impact: The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions.
The actual figure to released at 7:00 PM
EUR: CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 3:30 PM
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers
Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month
Next Release Date: Feb 1, 2023
Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data.
There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The report is extremely
early and tends to have a significant impact
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because
rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate
Forecast- [ 9.6% ]
Previous- [10.1% ]
Actual- [ ? ]
Impact: The forecast figure seems to be negative for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions.
The actual figure to released at 3:30 PM
EUR: Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 3:30 PM
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco
Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month
Next Release Date: Feb 1, 2023
Eurostat bases this estimate on 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this
report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Apr 2013,
is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices
lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate
Forecast- [ 5.1% ]
Previous- [ 5.0% ]
Actual- [ ? ]
Impact: The forecast figure seems to be positive for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions.
The actual figure to released at 3:30 PM
Source: Forex Factory
For more leading indicators stay tuned with us!!
