U.S. inflation data will be a key factor to watch, as markets are already under pressure from worries over the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation. Further, jitters of fallout from the biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, US economic numbers will have a significant impact on the market.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank policy, UK annual budget and China economic numbers will bring clutter for the market.
Important Data and event for next week –
U.S.
CPI m/m data to be released on Tuesday. A forecast is to have expanded by 0.4%, from previous reading 0.5% and CPI y/y with a forecast of 6.0%, from previous reading 6.4%.
Further, Core CPI m/m forecast is at 0.4% unchanged from previous 0.4%.
Wednesday,
Core PPI m/m, forecast is seen at 0.4%, previous was at 0.5%.
Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast is at -0.1%, from previous reading of 2.3%.
Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast is at -7.9, from previous reading of -5.8.
PPI m/m, forecast is at 0.3%, from previous reading 0.7%.
Retail Sales m/m, forecast is at -0.3%, from previous reading of 3.0%.
Thursday
The economic calendar also includes data on, initial jobless claims which could have a positive impact on the dollar, as all data forecasted slightly lower at 205k than previous reading of 211k.
Friday
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will be important data for dollars. It’s foreseen slightly lower at 66.9 from previous reading 67. That could have a negative impact on the dollar.
All above the data will bring clutter for entire market
Eurozone
On Thursday, the ECB will release a monetary policy decision.
The ECB looks set to hike interest rates by another 50 basis points at its meeting on Thursday after already raising rates by 3 percentage points since July in a bid to tame inflation.
Data showing that underlying inflation in the Eurozone ticked higher last month added to concerns that price pressures are proving persistent.UK
On Friday, Eurozone Final CPI y/y is to be released. Data foreseen at 8.5%, lower from previous reading 8.6%.
U.K.
On Tuesday, Claimant Count Change will be released. Data foreseen at 12.5k, previous was at -12.9k. Data could have a negative impact on the pound.
On Wednesday, Britain’s Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivers his Spring Budget which will have a significant impact on pound and base metals.
With that in mind, the main focus for markets will be on the growth and borrowing forecasts to be released alongside the budget.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted 1.3% GDP growth for 2024. The Bank of England forecasts a slight contraction. An OBR downgrade might affect sterling, but the pound is moving mainly on interest rate differentials, with U.S. rates expected to rise further than in the U.K.
China
China is to release the first retail sales and industrial production data of the year on Wednesday which will give market watchers some insight into whether Beijing’s new 5% growth target is as modest as many analysts think.
Retail Sales y/y foreseen at 3.5%, much higher from previous reading of -1.8%.
Industrial Production y/y, foreseen at 2.6%, from previous reading of 1.3%.
India
Monday – consumer price index (CPI) data for February 2023 will have a strong impact on Indian Currency and market.
Tuesday, wholesale price index (WPI) inflation figures for February 2023.
On the same day, India will release its exports, imports and trade balance figures too.
All the above data expect to bring huge volatility for Rupees and local share market.