Keep an eye on Core CPI; the forecast figure is supportive for Dollar


Commodity Samachar- Core CPI

EURO CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 2:30 PM

Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month.

Next Release date Aug 31, 2022

Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The report is extremely early and tends to have a significant impact.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Forecast- [8.7%]
Previous- [8.6%]
Actual- ?

Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 2:30 PM.


EURO: CORE CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 2:30 PM

Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco.

Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month.

Next Release date Aug 31, 2022

Eurostat bases this estimate on 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Apr 2013, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Forecast- [3.9%]
Previous- [3.7%]
Actual- ?

Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly positive for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure to release at 2:30 PM.


USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m at 6:00 PM

Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends.

Next Release Date Aug 26, 2022

This differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. CPI is released about 10 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention.

It’s the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Forecast- [0.5%]
Previous- [0.3%]
Actual- ?

Impact- The forecast figure seems to be slightly positive for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure to release at 6:00 PM.


USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment at 7:30 PM

Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

Released monthly, around the middle of the current month.

Next Release Date Aug 12, 2022

There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact.

Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, accounting for most of the overall economic activity.

Forecast- [51.1]
Previous- [51.1]
Actual- ?

Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while negative for bullions. The actual figure to release at 7:30 PM.


EURO CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 2:30 PM

Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month.

Next Release date Aug 31, 2022

Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The report is extremely early and tends to have a significant impact.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Forecast- [8.7%]
Previous- [8.6%]
Actual- ?

Impact- The forecast figure seems to be neutral for base metals and the dollar while positive for bullions. The actual figure to release at 2:30 PM.

Source: Forex Factory

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